Rambler Metals & Mining Share Discussion Threads

[daz] 20/12/2012 10:01

Agree with that KT, it is the next quarter that will hopefully more accurately reflect cash generation as extra commissioning costs fall out of the equation.

Don't disagree with what you're saying Snowy, the mine itself is a year late coming into production if you look at announcements from previous years, so management still have a lot to prove in my view.

[killing_time] 20/12/2012 09:33

You also have to take into account other costs like how much was spent on the starting of the hydromet re-processing of the tailings, drilling ect.

I understand where you are coming from Snowy as they said we would have generated around $20 million by year end but i have found that when mining companies start producing they spend alot at the start on extra equipment that doesn't always show up, but i have found that the best way to see how the cash is doing is to give it a few quarters then you find it settles down. The BFS for the lower footwall would also have cost a few million.

I hope they start to report production numbers every quarter starting in Feb as this gives a clear picture of how the company is progressing. KT.

[snowydays] 20/12/2012 09:31

Yes, add back the $500k and cash has only declined from $8m to $7.1m. Vut that is still going in the wrong direction.

At the top of this thread is a link to a post by someone called Chipeerfred giving his predictions for the first few years of production. Here is another link to it

You can see that the poster was expecting strong cashflow of about $4m a month, which I think is what most of us were looking for. So far though, the cashflow has been weak, nuch less than expectations.

Don't forget that this is while we are mining the high grade 1807 zone. when the time comes to move onto the lower grade zones Rambler may not be profitable at current production rates. Rambler is doing OK, and the addition of a new 1,000tpd mill would help a lot. At the moment though I can't see any compelling reason for the significant rerating which has been spoken about for so long.

[daz] 20/12/2012 08:51

The cash position won't necessarily reflect cash generation Snowy, as one of the company's top priorities is to pay off the Sprott loan as soon as possible.

They do say in the announcement that the $6.6m Dec 20 figure is after a $500,000 repayment of the loan

[daz] 20/12/2012 08:44

At the recent presentation in London, they forecast production of 5,500 to 6,500 tonnes of copper in concentrate for the year to July 2013, which you would hope would be accurate and a tad conservative, given the months spent to declare the mine commercial.

[snowydays] 20/12/2012 08:38

All true Daz, this is just a snapshot. In addition they may not have received the remaining 10% payment for the shippee concentrates yet.

However, we have been promised much stronger cash generation. Pete Mercer stated in an interview that Rambler would be producing $3m to $5m every month once copper production started. Statements by MR Ogilvie have been similar. We now have 7 months of copper production and yet the cash position is little better than it was when we started back in May.

[redhill] 20/12/2012 08:24

Yes but how much copper concentrate do they hold?
Cash is only one part of the equation!

[daz] 20/12/2012 08:20

Snowy,

Cash generation will be linked to the number of shipments made over the period, which are I think are likely to be a little erratic, this quarter there appears to have been only one, so if in the next quarter they make 2 shipments, cash generation will look quite different.
It is a key issue but I think better judged over a longer period than the initial quarter of production.

[snowydays] 20/12/2012 08:12

Awful results today.

Cash resources (including short-term investments) at 31 October 2012,
were $4.9 million and as of 20 December 2012 had increased to $6.6
million after a $500,000 repayment on the Company's credit facility.
Operating cash flows are anticipated to build throughout the balance of
the fiscal year in line with the move to commercial production effective
1 November 2012.


So cash was $8m at the time of their last presentation but has fallen to just $6.6m. So much for cash generation.

[snowydays] 18/12/2012 10:51

Rambler have placed the latest broker research note on their website, except that when you click the link it takes you to the investor presentation instead.

No doubt they will sort out the problem and the research note will be available later today.

[snowydays] 16/12/2012 17:30

Having said that, the proposal to install a second crushing/grinding circuit could be a game changer for Rambler.

The existing concentrator is designed for 1,000tpd capacity so does not need alteration. The costs of an expansion to the existing mill or a new mill are very low compared to the costs of installing a new concentrator or hydromet. In fact the basic units i.e. a hammer crusher and ball mill with the capacity required seem to be available for just tens of thousands of dollars. There would presumably be substantial installation and integration costs, but even so perhaps just a million dollars.

Even if a new mill and grinding circuit costs several million dollars, the extra production would pay for the mill in just a few weeks.

When the 1807 zone is exhausted and the time comes to mine the lower grade massive sulphide zones the figures look much better on a 1,000tpd basis. The North and South zones look fairly marginal at the current rates.

With the existing mill and hydromet then free to handle gold ore, either from the Ming mine or elsewhere Rambler would increase its revenues and cashflow significantly. On that basis a substantial rerating of the shares probably would be justified.

[snowydays] 15/12/2012 09:40

I think you are right to have some concerns. The company has not delivered on its promises and it seems clear now that the long awaited rerating of the shares is not going to happen and at the moment there is no reason for it to happen.

In an earlier recorded interview George Ogilvie argued for a tripling of the shareprice from 36p to 108p saying that once the company was in production 108p would be a fair PE of about 5, implying earnings of about 22p. The company is now at full production, but forecasts are for earnings of just 11p this year and next. About half of what Mr Ogilvie suggested.

I still think the shares offer reasonable value and expect the shareprice to rise as cash builds. Perhaps 50p + next year is realistic, but the much talked about significant rerating seems to be pie in the sky.

[dukedosh] 13/12/2012 23:08

I'm breaking my own rules here so it's certainly a point not missed on me Snowydays. I was banking on the copper price improving to redress the balance sheet but it hasn't as yet. I like the management team here but I have a couple of concerns so holding for now on a see how it goes basis.

[snowydays] 13/12/2012 12:51

You won't be interested in Rambler then. $7m debt with Sprott and $20m owed to Sandstorm which cannot be repayed.

[dukedosh] 13/12/2012 11:57

Thanks JFT, but in this market climate, I'm only interested in resource companies that are debt free, actually producing, generating good coin or imminently about to start doing so. Good luck to you.

[john ford timmins] 13/12/2012 10:28

Mundoro Captial TSX listed. MC 11 - cash 17m??

[snowydays] 10/12/2012 15:37

"Rambler Metals & Mining PLC (RMM.LN) aims to grow its production by building a second crushing and grinding plant at its copper-gold Ming mine in Newfoundland, Canada, its vice president of corporate development said Tuesday. "

https://www.adr.com/Markets/GlobalNewsStory?docID=1-DN20121204011642-10SKHTUKFJBDE9FHK6RCRCHFKU

[ned] 07/12/2012 11:47

chipperfrd
Thanks. Exactly the picture I hoped for, described in words.

[killing_time] 07/12/2012 11:45

Thanks dukedosh.

November figures looked good.

Good to see that the hydromet re-processing of tailings started in mid November.

Also we have targets for the year ahead.

Q1 2013 1,118t/Cu
865oz/gold

Q2 2013 1,630t/Cu
3,675oz/gold

Q3 2013 1,570t/Cu
3,825oz/gold

Q4 2013 1,690t/Cu
3,750oz/gold

The only thing i cannot find are the costs.

[dukedosh] 07/12/2012 11:18

Here's the new presentation

[killing_time] 07/12/2012 11:16

Thanks Daz, very much appreciated.

Very interesting that the LFZ has been put on the back burner and George is talking more about Maritime.
I wonder if this will have a positive rating on the share price if the market realizes that we probably will not now need to raise $200m+ for the LFZ in the short term.

Edit; Thanks also to chip.

[chipperfrd] 07/12/2012 11:10

An excellent presentation by George. He exudes enthusiasm and confidence in the company and is extremely fluent on all aspects of the business.

Their stated aim is to become a $500m company over the next few years by building production in copper and gold. Leveraging their geographical position and production assets via managed steps.

As Daz says, the LFZ is part of the plan but not until the revised project NPV/IRR makes perfect sense.

NP plays an essential part of their early expansion and will need to be expanded at the front end to reach a 1,000tpd throughput to match their flotation capacity and will also require additional crusher/mill units to allow dual processing of copper-rich and gold-rich ores.

Rambler is clearly a company that has very positive and realistic ambitions and is being led by a very dynamic CEO intent on building a strong business whilst anticipating and managing all perceived risks.

Very impressive!
Chip

[daz] 07/12/2012 10:47

Snowy,

That's 6008 tonnes for the the fiscal year to end July.

Cash as of 28th Nov was £5m, in retrospect I should have asked about projected cash generation but it was clear that the company are focused on building up a cash pile.

[snowydays] 07/12/2012 10:00

Thanks Daz, looks like they have their priorities right.

Is that 6008 tonnes of copper over a 12 month period or over the rest of the year? Any word on the cash position?

Useful report Daz, hope you enjoyed yourself there.

[ned] 07/12/2012 09:48

Thanks Daz