Rambler Metals & Mining Share Discussion Threads

[killing_time] 25/2/2013 15:52

I have the 22nd March wrote down, though i don't know where i got them from.

[broncowarrior] 25/2/2013 12:56

Does anyone have the date for results? I couldn't find the info on the RMM website.

[jgraggaber] 21/2/2013 20:32

Merfyn apparently resigned from all positions in different companies for personal reasons.
I could not detect any reassurance about positive short term development in recent email correspondence. This may not mean anything but could indicate that not everything is going as smoothly as planned.
I do not know if the blending was necessary and technically advantageous. Chip might know more.
Rambler might have overpromised regarding imminent rerating, making money fast etc (see several interviews). On the other hand they have been paying down debt, made first shipment etc. They will only be finding out now what their true total production costs are I guess. As with a lot of these mines things tend to take a lot longer than anticipated with often further dilutions on the way. I am mainly worried about the copper price, it might easily collapse. On the other hand RMM might surprise and exceed (high) expectations in forthcoming results.

[snowydays] 21/2/2013 18:29

I would imagine the persistent small sells are coming from disappointed PI's who had bought into Rambler in anticipation of the much talked about but still elusive re-rating. I think many of us are waking up to the fact that Ramblers promised strong cashflow seems to be a mirage which keeps retreating. It is always going to happen in just a few months. There may be much more if the March results fail to deliver anything except more jam tomorrow.

It's ironic that Rambler said they were commissioning the concentrator with a mixture of LFZ and 1807 zone ore so that they would not waste the high grade stuff. In fact, by mining for at least 6 months without producing any profits they have already used up a fair proportion of the known 1807 reserves without benefitting shareholders in any way.

As for the non-exec resignation I don't think anything can be read into it. Rambler has six non-execs including Roberts. If another one resigns soon it might be a warning sign, but there could be any number of reasons for one to go.

Still, perhaps one day they will announce that the visible gold extends for hundreds of meters and forms a massive resource. Dream on.

[jgraggaber] 21/2/2013 14:42

Interesting indeed, I assume that he was not particularly hands on as non-executive director. I subsequently assume that time commitments won't have been the reason to leave the company at a transformative stage.
There certainly have been a lot of sells recently and the shareprice continues drifting down when you would expect people to buy in prior to expected good results.
I shall contact Peter Mercer again. He was rather vague in his last message 'the long term outlook does appear to be positive'. This may mean nothing but I replied that I would have expected the short term outlook to be rather good too. No reply yet.
Anyone with any more details?

[killing_time] 21/2/2013 08:03

RNS out, Board member resigns.

Anyone with a view on why Merfyn Roberts resigned?

Speculating on another board that maybe he is not happy with the direction the company is heading.

I guess if he was leaving on good terms because maybe he wants to spend more time with his family or his work load is spread over too many companies the RNS would say that he was stepping down after so many years in service, but resigns, seems there is more to it.

[jgraggaber] 20/2/2013 18:34

I am very curious about forthcoming results. Expectations certainly were high after repeat statements of 'making a lot of money very fast' and the 're-rating'. We should get an idea of what true production costs will be.
Which in general is a hot topic as the often quoted cash cost with gold miners is hardly equivalent to total cost.
I would like to know why Chip reduced his earning estimates so significantly? I think he also attended the investor presentation in December and was reassured then?

[snowydays] 16/2/2013 13:22

Hi k_t,

The next results should indeed be interesting, particularly to see if Rambler can deliver on its forecast of a massive increase in gold production. The first quarter gold production figures were less than half of what they had forecast.

The second quarter forecast figures do look optimistic considering they are processing about 17,500 tonnes of ore each month and the 1807 zone has a grade of 1.75g/t gold.

17,500 x 1.75g/t gives a total of just under 1,000oz of gold each month assuming 100% recovery. With an 85% recovery rate including the hydromet 2,500oz for the quarter looks more reasonable.

What worries me is that although the next quartely results should show a profit and reasonable cashflow the shares may fall when Rambler fail to meet their forecasts.

[killing_time] 14/2/2013 12:13

Hi snowydays.

We should get the quarter update next month so hopefully there is plenty of news of how things are going.

Selling seems to have stopped at the moment with buying and selling returning to normal, hopefully we have about bottomed on this correction and maybe we will start to move up once more. KT.

[snowydays] 14/2/2013 11:39

But if Henderson have been buying big time that begs the question of how far the shareprice would have fallen without Hendersons interest.

In their December presentation Rambler were predicting a massive increase in gold production for the second quarter. That is where most of the increased revenue would come from. I am not sure how realistic that is.

It would have been nice if Rambler had updated us on how the secondary processing of the tailings is working.

[killing_time] 14/2/2013 08:06

RNS out,

Henderson now up to 13.13%.

So in 5 days Henderson have added about 3 million shares. I'm guessing they didn't aquire these on the open market so maybe they went straight to the seller and just maybe the seller has finished. The spread has opened up in the last few weeks signaling that Henderson have stopped buying on the open market imo.

Will wait hopefully now for an RNS from the seller. KT.

[broncowarrior] 12/2/2013 13:56

SP wouldn't have held any prop positions here IMO.

[killing_time] 12/2/2013 08:07

Hi jgraggaber, If Seymour Pierce held shares they didn't hold more than 3%.

[broncowarrior] 11/2/2013 18:23

Shame Ocean didn't have a target. I also like to see one.

No country risk on this one so I think a P/E of 7 or 8 is more than realistic.

[jgraggaber] 11/2/2013 18:22

Meaning Seymour Pierce

[jgraggaber] 11/2/2013 18:07

Did Liberum hold shares, they might have been forced to sell?

[jgraggaber] 11/2/2013 18:06

Dear Chip,
If your earnings estimate are only 10p and realistic, a shareprice of 35 or so would not appear unreasonable given macroeconomic uncertainty. Might certainly be in keeping with recurrent weakness here. PER of 10 for a junior at this stage in the economic cycle might occur but would probably be purely speculative in view of the short mine life.
I wrote to Peter Mercer, they alway reply extensively. No new info. The 'long term outlook does appear to be positive'. You can read that as you wish...
I hope they did not encounter any production problems. The copper price as such seems satisfactory at present. MagicMiner on iii sees trucks shipping concentrate at least.

[ned] 08/2/2013 01:21

From iii See page 25 for RMM

Ocean Equities Research
Review of 2012 and Outlook for 2013

[bashers2] 31/1/2013 12:29

Trading as in storing it for you as a form of bullion.

[bashers2] 31/1/2013 12:27

I do understand that copper is being made into ingots, numbered and stored as gold and silver for trading purposes. Chinese very much into using copper as a trading currency also - JPM also started trading copper as 'precious' metal.

[redhill] 31/1/2013 12:11

Its not only China that buys copper.

[davidblack] 31/1/2013 12:04

Are the Chinese inventories full?

Yes apparently based on their statistical releases but if so why is the price so buoyant at above $3.60 a pound in the middle of a "Crash"

Something does not add up if you believe the Chinese "Facts"

[jgraggaber] 30/1/2013 19:04

Thanks, Chip.
I feel that we have only gone back to values seen years ago and not really partaken in the current bullmarket.
These numbers seem rather unexciting and imply rather little upside potential. Less than doubling of the current relatively weak shareprice on reaching full production and profitability would be a disappointing outcome given that any insurer and bank has done better recently without much risk given current super lose monetary and fiscal policy. It would just confirm again that AIM shares are best traded (frequently) rather than held over a few years hoping for sustained significant rerating which may never come. I guess a lot of people are very cautious here as copper prices are more likely to drop than rise significantly. Chinese inventories are apparently full and the economy a long way from full recovery.