Rambler Metals & Mining Share Discussion Threads

[snowydays] 22/12/2012 17:45

Did everyone get their Rambler ecard yesterday?

[snowydays] 22/12/2012 10:17

Looks like there will be a White Christmas on the Baie Verte Peninsular. I expect Rambler's directors and staff will use Christmas as an excuse to pick a poor shareholders pocket. Bah Humbug

[kiwimonk] 21/12/2012 18:57

excellent looking forward, await black swans

[chipperfrd] 21/12/2012 17:58

And a really happy Christmas to you Dukedosh and all other Ramblers :-)

Kind regards
Chip

[dukedosh] 21/12/2012 16:27

Merry Christmas fellow Ramblers. Hopefully 2013 will be the transitional year the company guidance suggests but the Jury is out, watching this close.

[snowydays] 21/12/2012 10:54

Thanks for the comments guys. Since we are close to the end of the year now, maybe this is a good time to remind ourselves of what Rambler have publicly stated we can expect next year. Remember these are official estimates made by Rambler and that Rambler have tried to entice investors to part with their hard earned cash on the basis of these figures.





So there we have Rambler predicting EBITDA of nearly $10m for the current quarter. I believe investors are entitled to be disappointed with anything less than that, and very disappointed if EBITDA and cashflow is only $2m or $3m for the current quarter.

But no doubt when cash is still at the same level at the end of the quarter, and Rambler only just breaks even Pollyanna will post here to say what a marvellous job the directors have done and how the results are even better than expected.

[ned] 20/12/2012 22:47

Quite agree snowydays is a great boon to the board.

Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year to one and all.

ned

[dingliwang] 20/12/2012 22:44

You can't really call snowy negative - the company didn't achieve his expectations.

A better description is that his expectations were less unrealistic than everybodyelse's.

[count chris] 20/12/2012 22:16

I think we should all be pleased that Snowy is here as he often provides the somewhat negative arguments that we'd rather not hear but does it without all the swearing and personal attacks so common on the other boards. Of course Snowy is a holder rather than a shorter which helps. Merry Xmas all - I think we'll have a good if not spectacular 2013 with RMM.

[ned] 20/12/2012 17:10

Snowy shows his disappointment with another short term trade (that chipperfrd didn't make him buy)

[snowydays] 20/12/2012 16:30

Hey Pollyanna, let's play the glad game.

[chipperfrd] 20/12/2012 15:44

snowydays,

Not at all. Trying to predict performance during a commissioning phase can only be largely guesswork.

What really matters is that they get to long-run operational performance within reasonable CAPEX budget and that OPEX ends up relatively close to estimates.

Whether this is actually achieved within a variance of a couple of quarters is relatively immaterial to me over the life of a mine.

I have been down this route with loads of other miners and fully expect delays and issues arising. That does not mean I am complacent, far from it. But I do try and understand the myriad of problems that miners face when delivering a new project all the way to production.

I always try and create an early 'strawman' model based on all the data I can gather with the full expectation that I will need to modify over the fullness of time until a reasonably steady-state of production is reached. On top of all that there will be the Macro events that impinge on metal prices, FOREX, market multiples, et al.

It is a process which has worked for me over time and allows me to constantly compare multiple holdings and my portfolio balance on a multi-year basis.

Nothing is guaranteed. No investment can be considered a 'no-brainer'. None of us are infallible. We should always expect equal levels of disappointment and success and look for reasons to re-assess the investment case for any of our holdings.

But that is my view as an investor when most of the market is made up of traders. Only over the long term and in hindsight can one really judge whether ones decisions were correct or in error.
Chip

[snowydays] 20/12/2012 15:21

"Ore mined is some 75kt lower and tonnes milled is running at c. 40kt lower for CY2012."

Well that is rather disappointing don't you think?

Let me rephrase a question Chipper. Do you agree that Ramblers performance has been poor compared to what we were let to expect at the start of the year?

[dingliwang] 20/12/2012 14:14

snowy,

I am saying that all AIM miners lie in their production forecasts.

Their time lines are ALWAYS too short.
[You wouldn't want these guys doing your christmas catering. They would probably turn up in July the following year.]

Nobody except the analysts believes these forecasts.

In my view - Rambler have been amongst the best with their forecasts.

[chipperfrd] 20/12/2012 14:10

snowydays

One can only use best estimates prevailing at the time.

I adjust my own numbers constantly in accordance with actuals so it is hardly surprising that my opinion 9 months ago is at odds with the reality over what has been primarily a period of commissioning.

The Cu price is some $400/t lower.
Ore mined is some 75kt lower and tonnes milled is running at c. 40kt lower for CY2012.

Loads of other variables have changed and I have certainly reduced my expectations of market multiple given the dire sentiment for miners over this year.

But now that the commissioning has finished and commercial production has been reached I will stick with my opinion for CY2013. No doubt the actuals in 12 months time will be at a variance to my current expectations. But I would still rather have some basis for my personal valuation of this company (and every other company I hold shares in) by at least attempting to forecast forward fair value.

I can certainly live with changed circumstances (delays/etc) as long as the over-arching fundamentals remain positive. And (IMO) they do for Rambler.
Chip

[billy_liar] 20/12/2012 14:06

"You seem to be saying they deliberately and knowingly lied to shareholders!"

You only have to look at Norseman Gold (NGL) to see how that pans out!

[snowydays] 20/12/2012 13:50

In that case DingliWang, Chip should admit that Ramblers performance has been below what they led shareholders to expect.

"He means that they are on track for what the management thought that they would do. Not what they told shareholders that they would do."

You seem to be saying they deliberately and knowingly lied to shareholders!

edit. Sorry Dingli, I didn't get the irony in your post when I first looked at it :(

[dingliwang] 20/12/2012 13:46

Snowy
He means that they are on track for what the management thought that they would do. Not what they told shareholders that they would do.

Chip's spreadsheets are a numerical representation of what the management forecast. They are not a representation of what he expects them to do.

Hence, they corellate well with the analysis from house brokers - but poorly with reporting of the actuals.

So his spreadsheet number 8,108 tonnes for 2012 - does not mean that he actually thought that was what they would do. He may very well have expected 6,000 tonnes - but doesn't put that in the spreadsheet because it would contradict the management forecasts.

[snowydays] 20/12/2012 13:14

Chipper, after every announcement you always say that everything is looking on track and as you expected. But your actual predeictions are on record and linked to at the top of this thread. You had predicted operating pre-tax cash-flow of $17,988,267 for the calendar year 2012. They still have 10 days to go, but there is no way there are going to be anywhere close to those figures.

More importantly production is way below what you were predicting, based upon what Rambler had implied. You had predicted production of 8,108 tonnes per year but Ramblers predictions are for just 6,008 tonnes this year, even allowing for the first quarter being pre-commercial production and adding a few hundred tonnes extra it is clear that Ramblers production is substantially lower that you, and other shareholders had expected.

There is still room for improvement with a new mill etc., but why do you keep insisting that Rambler are doing as expected when their performance is actually very disappointing.

[killing_time] 20/12/2012 11:27

Thanks chip.

Hi rogash, no sure that they will have to declare on their way to 20% but when they hit that target we should get an RNS as they can then get their second board member.

[chipperfrd] 20/12/2012 11:18

All looks on track to me. The current quarter is the first at commercial production so I was not expecting to see a decent operating margin until this and subsequent quarters. 2013 should be a good year for Rambler.
Chip

[killing_time] 20/12/2012 10:53

Maybe when this quarters figures are out we will have a clearer picture, but it is hard to see where all the money goes without a good set of accounts.

I also have been having a similar problem with the cash in bank at another copper miner which started up over a year ago, below are the figures from Weatherly showing how much profit they make each quarter then how much money they have in the bank.

Financal year

Q2 2011 profit $3.94m Cash $7.1m
Q3 2012 profit $2.99m Cash $6.7m
Q4 2012 profit $3.09m Cash $8.5m
Q1 2012 profit $4.19m Cash $7.2m

No dividends were payed, a BFS was done on Tschudi which probably cost around $3m but it seems they have a similar problem to Rambler where you can clearly see the profits yet the cash in the bank stays the same.

[rogash] 20/12/2012 10:43

Tinma currently hold 16%.If they have increased their holding which I suspect they have,when do they have to declare?20%?

[snowydays] 20/12/2012 10:09

k_t, I don't think there have been any large capital expenses. In their recent presentation they said that the shipped concentrate had a value of $17m. That is their production from May to November. Over a six month period they produced revenues of $17m (when the outstanding 10% payment is received) while we know that expenditure is about $2.5m each month. So ignoring exceptional costs about $2m cashflow in 6 months. Admittedly the first few months were the ramp up phase and things should improve, but it still looks much slower than I think most of us were expecting.

Back in May when production started I think that if we had taken a poll most of us would have expected the cashpile to be $20m or so by the end of the calendar year.