Pv Crystalox Solar Share Discussion Threads

[zcaprd7] 06/7/2017 10:15

Has the run up to the court result started?

[zcaprd7] 02/7/2017 10:29

Court case decided in Q3 2017, and we're there now. Now, I suspect the courts will close down for holidays, so either early July or September...

[jimmygee2] 22/6/2017 14:19

Starting to bowl quite nicely

[zcaprd7] 22/6/2017 13:41

More volume, any news?

[cjohn] 15/6/2017 12:07

Wafer prices continue to rise slowly. Poly-silicon is flat.

[eeza] 06/6/2017 16:43

sudden increase in volume.

[zcaprd7] 02/6/2017 13:03

I guess July is Q3, so we might hear something in a month's time? I'd like to know how the evidentiary hearing went, or when the next hearing date is due?

[zoolook] 25/5/2017 07:54

Yes - that is still the case

[simso] 25/5/2017 06:39

Xzcaprd, I didn't think the identity of the other counter party was known to us, and they had kept it secret?

[zcaprd7] 24/5/2017 23:26

Company who are going to pay are one of the largest solar companies in the world, so I think we're OK there... The contract is water tight, because we've had several wins before, and Alderan know as much as we do, and can see the value!

[frazboy] 24/5/2017 11:54

The wording in the March 2017 RNS was this:

"...in March 2016 that the value of any award if our claim is upheld could be a multiple of the Group's market capitalisation at that time."

This suggests to me (the "at that time" bit), that it's not a large multiple. I'm sticking with a multiple of 2 for my valuation.

As for the 50% chance of winning, you could also apply the 50% discount to the sum to be paid either because the company who may be required to pay are going under, or because the award might not be for the total claim. Take this factor into account and you end up with a fair value of around 18p.

What piqued my interest was the holding RNS by Aldebaran Capital, I was trying to figure what information they had that had made then bump up their holding. Depends what they paid for it I guess!?

[the stigologist] 22/5/2017 01:31

the last payout was c.90m so surely when they say multiple it's probably closer to 3-4x rather than 1-2x ?

[simso] 21/5/2017 19:29

Frazboy, that's good analysis, and no point in trying to do anything other than big picture assumptions. With regard to the 50% chance of winning the case....is there a further risk that if we win, the counterparty can't afford to pay?

[buywell3] 21/5/2017 09:40

From results

''On 31 December 2016 there was a net cash balance of €28.8 million, including funds held by an employee benefit trust. ''

How much of the cash is in the employee benefit trust ?

One would assume such is for the benefit of the employees and not shareholders

Such benefits are usually in the form of company shares but can be also cash

[frazboy] 19/5/2017 11:11

"...Multiple of Market Capitalisation"

It's such an ambiguous statement! And it makes it difficult to determine the investment case. I had assumed that, although in mathematical terms multiple can mean 1, the precise language used in the company's reports would not allow this, and multiple means 2 or more. In my base case I've opted for 2 (which meant the potential payout was worth ~£38m at that time as the market cap was around £19m), and then I have applied a 50% Chance of success (you can't be more than 50% out), so the arbitration is worth around £19m to the shareholders at this moment.

I'm not so hopeful on the FY 2017 results (if indeed we get to the end of this year), but I had penciled a loss of 11m euros or so; this is basically the total of staff costs and other expenses (with no other exceptional items) - and I've assumed that the cost of sales was equal to the raw material prices + services.

Anyway... with some adjustment for redundancies (although perhaps the German plant could be sold as a going concern?) I get around 24p/share of value.

So, the recent slide has made it look more attractive, with the downside around 12p, and an upside of around 36p.

On another topic, does anyone have any historic wafer price data for the last 12 months? I can only get spot prices.

[eeza] 19/5/2017 10:03

Aldebaran increased holding to 5%.

[cjohn] 19/5/2017 10:01

And up this week.

[cjohn] 11/5/2017 14:11

Solar cell prices flat this week.

[zcaprd7] 09/5/2017 13:35

Perky today? Kind of wanted it to stay below 20p, untilI can find some spare dosh. I wonder how the evidentiary hearing went?

[yasx] 05/5/2017 10:12

This is rather cheap - if the case is found in favour, well, it is off to the races...

[cjohn] 04/5/2017 12:40

Wafer prices firming up again.

[cjohn] 23/4/2017 14:55

No doubt about that.

[zcaprd7] 19/4/2017 10:02

Chart not looking great. Might have to squirrel some more away at some point... Anything under 20p is a bargain I reckon?