Pv Crystalox Solar Share Discussion Threads

[muffster] 13/11/2017 12:04

Interesting price action.... Didnt see this drop coming, oh well time to add

[cockerhoop] 13/11/2017 10:23

My (unconfirmed) understanding is its a German subsidiary of a South Korean company.

[zoolook] 13/11/2017 10:09

How do you know it is chinese?

[apatel21] 13/11/2017 10:01

Hi CJohnI would say upside is more like 40%+Think the market is pricing in some doubt about the Chinese Co coughing up the reddiesGiven AIM experience with chinese cos i would also had some doubt but..pvcs mgmnt described them as 'one of the worlds leading PV companies' - so it gives comfort that they should be of sufficient size to shoulder such a cost.But as we have seen they have dragged their heels on the whole process so no doubt it will take some time to get the cash in to the pvcs bank a/c

[cjohn] 13/11/2017 09:39

There seems to me to be maybe 20-25% upside from here; netting off any value in fixed assets and inventory against wind up costs. Or is that too optimistic?

[cjohn] 13/11/2017 09:38

Hi, Yasx,

I got rid of my post no 6719 prior to your posting of 6720. I re-read your original post and realised I'd read it wrong.

You stated the position correctly.

all best regards


CJohn

[yasx] 11/11/2017 16:12

I do not see a takeover - but I do see a fIRLY SWIFT orDerly wind up following the strategic review.

I reckon, once the PV company has aid up (and cost of wafers netted off), plus everything else that the Co owns is accounted for, closure costs taken into account, we will be left with approx 30p - so I am happy to hold and purchase here

[zcaprd7] 11/11/2017 00:55

The rest of the assets are quite hard to value, some people write them of, others think they might have some use.I still think the end game is a takeover by the unnamed, losing solar company...

[yasx] 10/11/2017 18:05

CJohn,

Not so - i wrote as below:

"Buy in spot market and deliver- based on PV insights who track spot market trends, current value is $0.627 /wafer, at current fx =12.4 million Eu. So award is 34-12 =22 million;ergo leaves 28 million net cash +22 mln award=50mln Eu, or £44mln"

So I too used 27.8 mln Eu as the net cash position. With the likely amount they will have to pay for the wafers in the spot market being around 12 mln (as above), this leaves the award essentially at 22 mln, thus leaving a total position of approx 50mln excluding a few other things. So, at the current price there is some upside, although those looking for substantial percentage gains will move on.

One issue that is not accounted for is the costs of closing the manufacturing facilities. Does any reader have a useful indication?

[zcaprd7] 10/11/2017 10:52

Well, if I had the money!

[zoolook] 10/11/2017 08:10

Likewise but a bargain is a buy rather than a hold. I've topped up with a view to seeing it through to conclusion which could take a while but with protected downside and enough potential upside to be worth the wait

[zcaprd7] 10/11/2017 01:42

I mean, I have loads already, I've been in and out going back years...

[zcaprd7] 09/11/2017 23:16

Yes... I'm holding onto mine...

[zcaprd7] 09/11/2017 20:23

Yes, agreed, it's certainly a hold until they update on the strategic review, which must just need a few edits to update it...

[yasx] 09/11/2017 20:16

There will be no names disclosed.

As for interest, the award includes interest to the date of the award - but, interest is being added from this week. Thus, there is an incentive for the Defendant to wrap this up as soon as possible.

[zoolook] 09/11/2017 20:04

Oh come on. It's a game

[kev0856153] 09/11/2017 20:00

Why has this disgraceful company that wilfully breaks contracts not been named and shamed yet?

[yasx] 09/11/2017 18:53

There are 3 ways to satisfy entitlement to wafers by customer, as follows:

1) produce and supply them - would take 9 months of production- unlikely option

2)Buy in spot market and deliver- based on PV insights who track spot market trends, current value is $0.627 /wafer, at current fx =12.4 million Eu. So award is 34-12 =22 million;ergo leaves 28 million net cash +22 mln award=50mln Eu, or £44mln.

3) agree aforementioned value with customer and net off from overall award of 34 million Eu (this is the most probable outcome)

So market cap should safely be around £44 million v current cap of 38 mln so good short term fairly risk free upside (insofar as can be the case), plus other bits thrown in which would inflate the 44 million figure alluded to above.

Re legal costs - these are negligible as I understand it so negligible impact and is not dissimilar to a case of each party bearing their own costs even if not technically the case - but, no material impact to be derived from legal costs.

For reasons I have just explained in detail, pvcs has virtually risk free (approx) 25pc short term upside in my view. I suspect they will conclude matters in fairly short order since interest continues to accumulate (notwithstanding the fact that the award included all interest up to the point of the award) but interest is accumulating since.

Nil brainer in my view

[yasx] 09/11/2017 18:34

All,

I have set out what I believe is the correct position on my twitter account as regards the award and the impact of the entitlement of the customer for PVCS to deliver u the wafers and metrics associated with the same.

[zcaprd7] 09/11/2017 16:32

I suspect the deal will be at the contracted price, the judges have just sanctified the original contract."you give them the agreed contract money, and you supply the agreed wafer amount"As I think the wafer prices were some 5 times higher when the contract was agreed (happy to be corrected) we can assume say 80% of the award is cash?Given that cash and inventory value was 20p six months, I think these are a bargain.

[cjohn] 09/11/2017 15:31

Hi zpcard7, good idea to e-mail the Company. Thee wasn't enough detail in the announcement.

It may be that if the other company decides to go ahead, the deal is at the current market price. (I admit that is what I'd assumed, though you may well be right.)

[zcaprd7] 09/11/2017 11:38

Although, some extra clarity from the company would be useful? I will email them...

[zcaprd7] 09/11/2017 11:36

Therefore, only loss making for the other party...

[zcaprd7] 09/11/2017 10:52

Indeed, the wafers would be purchased at the silly price that the company was trying to dodge in the first place!