Porvair Share Discussion Threads

[blackhorse23] 01/7/2024 07:10

Money moved to rank group [RNK]

[mammyoko] 01/7/2024 06:40

Decent H1 results, in line with management expectations. A large petro order to be shipped in the second half and anticipated better performance in H2 over H1 suggests that this could do 40p min FY eps putting it on a p/e of just over 16 which is historically cheap. Once risk-taking returns and barring any accidents I think this could easily return to a p/e of 20-plus meaning a share price over GBP8.

In the meantime, a safe place to invest always with the possibility that they get taken out which would have to be at over GBP10 to represent fair value to an acquirer

[mammyoko] 30/5/2024 15:05

Hello! Something going on here? Bid incoming??

[solooiler] 04/5/2024 12:38

it is hard to argue this is mispriced. SCSW running out of ideas imo

[napoleon 14th] 04/5/2024 12:22

1 of 3 primary recommendations in today's SCSW.
I don't have any; growth slow IMO.

[partridge1948] 24/4/2024 08:28

Encouraging to see (fairly modest) purchase by FD yesterday on a day when some large institutional trades went through.

[partridge1948] 16/4/2024 14:47

The dreaded "Second half weighting" appears to have upset sentiment,but may prove accurate in this case. After what may be a mundane first half, there was an air of cautious optimism at the AGM for both the second half of this year (which should benefit in particular from gasification spares order) and 2025, by which time improvement should also be see in profitability at recent acquisition Ratiolab,with other acquisitions making a meaningful contribution. Sensible timescale for search for long time CEO Ben Stocks replacement, as he will retire in 2025.

[pireric] 05/2/2024 08:00

Makes sense, and yes wouldn't disagree on that timeframe! One to buy on the dips for sure

Eric

[mammyoko] 05/2/2024 07:51

I would agree with all of that. I'm a longer term investor and can see this being a lot higher in five years' time if it isn't taken out in the meantime

[pireric] 05/2/2024 07:40

Not great really though, as I mentioned before

First half revenues were +10%
Full year only +2%

So second half revenues well down y/y. Not sure why the stock should re-rate on that until they really prove they can grow EBIT 8-10% per year organically (let's say 5% organic revenue growth and 3-5% from margin expansion), and that mix feels that is quite far away at the moment. Gets harder and harder to scale the EPS from here at the same pace as before, as there is less to go on margins than prior, I suspect. Maybe it can get towards a 15% margin on a long-term view from the close to 13% today?

I'd want a larger margin of safety on the valuation to be buying here I think; at best I'd call the stock fair value at 660p, but in reality, maybe 10-15% overvalued

No doubt this is a quality business though with a phenomenal track record. But share price hasn't really done a lot in a long time, and can see that continuing for a while longer as it keeps growing into its valuation

Eric

[mammyoko] 05/2/2024 07:22

Nice results. Adjusted EPS 6% ahead of consensus. Based on 15-year (!) CAGR adjusted EPS increase could do around 41p of adjusted earnings this year putting them on 16x future earnings which looks way too cheap. If they can get re-rated to the 23x earnings they have more normally traded at, the share price could be closer to GBP10. Plus, the possibility of a bid, good cash generation and an experienced and impressive track record from Ben Stocks means this is a core holding for me.

[pireric] 07/1/2024 21:16

One thing that strikes me is how - because of the profit beat - Porvair has been able to shake off what has been quite a weak second half on revenues.

At H1 growth was 10%
At FY, revenue is said to be 'similar' to 2022

Which probably means growth isn't at maximum more than 3%, and H2 was notably very negative (maybe -5-8%?). Also, some acquisitions from May would've really only contributed to the second half, so the recent performance has been pretty slow

Eric

[geraldus] 07/1/2024 17:54

Tipped by Midas in The Mail today.

[cheshurst] 05/12/2023 10:15

Agree great update. Moving from £14m cash at year end to "modest" cash post acquisition suggests circa £10m cost

[battlebus2] 05/12/2023 08:11

Excellent update this morning with trading ahead and an acquisition though no cost mention and we still have a modest cash balance.

[mammyoko] 04/12/2023 13:06

Long Path Partners acquired 5.36%. Whale Wisdom shows GBP845m AUM.

[battlebus2] 06/11/2023 17:42

It’s a steady ship ⛴️.

[essentialinvestor] 06/11/2023 12:52

Any views here folks?.

[battlebus2] 03/7/2023 07:15

Excellent interims.

[battlebus2] 04/5/2023 06:17

A couple of acquisitions announced this morning. Seem a sensible move. Earnings enhancing in 2024.

[partridge1948] 18/4/2023 13:07

Attended the AGM today. Not giving much away in the accompanying statement, but despite the challenges facing most businesses all looks to be going well.Capital investment in automation over recent years is helping to improve operating margins and the order book is healthy. I have attended most AGMs since 2009, which is when I think Italian Georgio Girondi (GGG SpA) acquired a stake of over 20%. Latest annual report shows that holding at 16.7% and interestingly this is the first time I have ever seen him at an AGM. Not sure what to read into that, if anything! Always dyor.

[battlebus2] 07/2/2023 18:07

New recent highs makes me smile today. 👍

[battlebus2] 01/2/2023 20:15

Good to see these back over £6. Onwards and upwards hopefully

[battlebus2] 30/1/2023 20:49

Exactly Gleach, they’ve just about covered everything that could possibly go wrong. Could happen but unlikely so I happily added today on that weakness. I still think buying under £6 is a great risk / reward here.