Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[xajorkith] 02/7/2018 07:54

Not the same news ramridge - they have AGAIN materially inreased expectations.

Onwards towards £20.

[essential] 02/7/2018 07:49

Suppose it is 1 month on and continues to trade well

[ramridge] 02/7/2018 07:46

All looks good, but what is this update telling us that wasn't said in the previous trading update, less than a month ago?
I have just re-read both twice and I cannot see any significant difference. Same news.

[ultimate1] 02/7/2018 07:27

When will the market give this company the respect it deserves. Time and time again results beat expectations. They are a superb growth story

[villarich] 02/7/2018 07:08

RNS - strong H1 resulting in material increase in expectations. ESMA risks being managed and new licences being sought.Sweeeeeeeeet!!

[davebdavid] 29/6/2018 19:27

Well I do not understand any of it but glad to read the posts!

[sailing john] 29/6/2018 18:26

BGW/a30 I don't disagree with your posts or forecasts based on Q1 EBITDA. I took the view that selling and admin costs might be lumpy and Q1 not fully reflect the average. I think I was overcautious having revisited it. Thanks for highlighting the further potential upside.

We are all on the same page - a stunning H1 about to be completed with a further month before ESMA tightening.
GL - SJ

[cfro] 29/6/2018 18:02

Sailing John,

Apologies, i have no idea where my 80p EPS number came from. Had it written down in my notes but clearly and very obviously it is some way out!

Given EBITDA of $237m for Q1 i work out EPS of somewhat 122p (same as aakash), but not sure if i am using the correct number of shares in issue after the recent placing..

....but anyway i thought 80p was good going for first quarter so rather pleased i asked questions here and ran through some numbers...:0))

[aakash30] 29/6/2018 16:26

Yeah I have 122p for Q1, Q2 ~80p seems fair given market volatility and company saying they are performing ahead of expectations. That gives ~200p for H1. I was estimating 230p for the full year, I think that Plus will easily beat that and now expect ~300p for the full year.

BGW agreed that customers did well (crypto customers) in the back end of 2017 as they were net long and Plus net short when crypto rallied in Q4

[bgw1970] 29/6/2018 16:02

With respect sailing john, that's wrong. Q1 was $237m of EBITDA. Use a 22% tax rate and you get a PAT of $184m. Divide by 112m shares and you have EPS of 164 $c or 124p in q1.

That's quite funny to consider. Plus500 trades at 13x trailing first *quarter* profits. CMC is on 14x calendar 2018. Sigh.

Thanks for posting your forecasts. I'm with you, though I bet they beat that.

I'd just chip in that your H1 profit expectation of $272m is 9% above the consensus full year profit expectation. You're not wrong.

Regarding your point on cryptocurrencies, I'm sure you are correct. Remember the company just told us in the prospectus that dealing spreads were 109% of revenues in 2017, but 101% in 2016. Customers did very well at the back end of the year (is my explanation for that).

[sailing john] 29/6/2018 15:39

Hi cfro - I don't recognise your Q1 eps of 80p sorry. Where has that come from?

I can't see that PLUS have given an eps figure for Q1 only Rev and EBITDA in the TS of 1st May.
(Has the 80p eps for Q1 come from a post I made elsewhere dated April 22nd that was subsequently increased when the Q1 TS was published on 1st May with Revenue at $297m vs my cautious model at $250m)

I don't normally calculate eps/quarter but split relative to my revenue forecasts it would now be 104p/78p Q1/Q2

[cfro] 29/6/2018 15:04

Sailing John,

With your 'cautious' forecasts above, you have EPS of 182 quoted in pence. Considering they achieved EPS of 80p for Q1, you are therefore assuming 102p of Q2?

[xajorkith] 29/6/2018 14:29

Agree SJ & expecting further significant upgrades on increased volatility in general, tempered only by a more cautious outlook in response to ESMA.

With entry to the FTSE 250 assured, this could easily reach £20-22 by the end of September imv.

[sailing john] 29/6/2018 10:53

Given the latest crypto mini crash with BTC and ETH off an average of circa 25% since the last TS on 7th June (presumably positive for PLUS as volume and incentives always biased to the Short side suggesting PLUS exposed Long) I think PLUS will issue a further TS in early July although not sure what more they can say after they upgraded FY expectations just 3 weeks back.

My cautious model output for 1H is
Rev $520m
PAT $272m
eps 182p!
lower in 2H though post ESMA
nai dyor etc.

[sailing john] 29/6/2018 10:27

WHT - 10% recoverable from ITA via PLUS's agent (ESOP Management & Trust Services Ltd) and the remaining 15% can be set against UK tax due via DTR on your tax return.

[stuffee] 29/6/2018 10:02

Grs

As far as I recall, 25% Israeli WHT is deducted of which 10% is recoverable, leaving the more normal net WHT of 15%.

[aakash30] 29/6/2018 09:50

It will be less volatile when the proportion of long-term (buy and hold) investors increases relative to right now. While I would expect that to happen over time (especially with inclusion in the FTSE 250), just by inclusion into the main market, I wouldnt expect anything to change unless the investor base changes.

[michaeljames1] 29/6/2018 09:44

Are we expecting an update in July or do we think the June update will be it until H1 results?

[burn248] 29/6/2018 09:34

Thought this would be less volatile now it on main market.

[gettingrichslow] 29/6/2018 09:32

Thanks Stuffee, can you remind me how much is recoverable please?

[stuffee] 28/6/2018 20:54

Getrichslow

Don’t think main listing will make any difference to the Israeli tax deduction and procedure for recovery.

[gettingrichslow] 28/6/2018 20:22

Anyone know what the situation will be regarding the Israeli tax on the dividend, now that they're on the main market?

[podgyted] 28/6/2018 13:53

Last year the interims were produced on 7/8/17. So early August.

[poolefox] 28/6/2018 11:17

thanks 4 traders have them as 29/8 but they were wrong re interims

[andrewclarke99] 28/6/2018 10:58

They must be around August, as a ball park figure