Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[gettingrichslow] 14/5/2018 22:13

mj1, from what I can see from old posts on this board, it fell by MORE than the dividend on 5 of the last 6 occasions. Logically it should fall by the total amount of the dividend as the buyer is no longer entitled to it, but obviously there will be other underlying reasons why the price will move up or down on the day so you could gain or lose on that basis but that should be a fairly even probability both ways. It seems to me quite likely that you'd end up better off than losing 15% of a very fat dividend?

[aakash30] 14/5/2018 22:09

In theory the stock should drop by the tax adjusted div but I would imagine lot of people don't want to deal with the hastle of applying for 10% rebate and waiting for pay date. It's an important factor though given the size of the div and size of the tax

[aakash30] 14/5/2018 22:04

That's a fair point GRS. It's only 1 data point but I remember from last ex date, stock fell by quite a bit prior to last ex-div date and rallied soon after. Maybe more than a few investors doing what you are suggesting

[michaeljames1] 14/5/2018 21:51

You could, but I dont know if it would fall as much as the dividend. I cant remember what happened on the last ex-dividend date but I know it recovered incredibly quickly, cant remember how much it fell on opening but you could lose out if unlucky. Its 15% if you fill in the paperwork saving you 10%, just depends if that 10% is worth your time...

[gettingrichslow] 14/5/2018 20:42

Anyone know a good reason why you would want to take the dividend on these shares and have all the Israeli tax hassles when one can just sell up the day before XD date and re-buy straight afterwards? The loss on the bid-offer spread is less than 0.01% and a few quid for the two trades...?

[intelligentinvestor1] 14/5/2018 14:09

Good to see nearly 4% (68p) up in the share price. Any specific reason for this sudden spike ?

[interceptor2] 14/5/2018 13:51

Gaining strength now which is rather bullish for holding over the 1600p level.

[metis20] 14/5/2018 13:48

Has now gone above, for the first time, the 1614p peak achieved early on the day of that excellent trading update -

[michaeljames1] 14/5/2018 13:37

Seems to have a tendency to go down towards close, at least has done every day since the update, up in the morning and down in the afternoon.

[nurdin] 14/5/2018 12:49

Need this to stay above £16 by eod.Then blue skies I feel.

[metis20] 12/5/2018 09:04

grs - no doubt tvh will expand but, for starters -

pages 16-20 of the 2017 presentation deals with regulation -



On the question of profitability - expenditure has been driven down dramatically over the past two quarters. This can be seen from the decrease in the Average New User Acquisition Cost (AUAC )from the last trading update -

"AUAC decreased by 45% compared to Q1 2017 due to continued efficiency in marketing spend"

"The decrease in AUAC reflected interest in cryptocurrencies as in the previous quarter. "

For more on AUAC see page 6 of the 2017 presentation.

For example - AUAC FY2016 was US$1195 and for FY2017 was down to US$474.

[gettingrichslow] 11/5/2018 18:01

Valuehunter, what is your view on the comment about legality of operations and also the last sentence in this article please?

Proving its worth
Another business that I believe is worth significantly more than the current valuation attributed to it is Plus 500 (LSE: PLUS).

It is something of an anomaly. For as long as I can remember, analysts have been questioning the sustainability of the company’s income, and even the legality of its operations. However, despite these concerns, year after year the firm has produced results for investors.

So, as the company continues to produce profitable growth, I believe that it is only a matter of time before the market re-rates the stock. Right now shares in the group are trading at a forward P/E of just 8.5, and support a dividend yield of 7.1%, compared to the valuation of 15 times forward earnings for its larger peer, IG Group.

As IG is the sector leader, I believe that it deserves a premium valuation, but even if shares in Plus 500 traded up to 13 times forward earnings, the shares could be worth as much as 2,015p, or 54% above current levels.

That being said, not everyone holds the same view as me. My Foolish colleague G A Chester is avoiding the business because it’s difficult to figure out why it is so much more profitable than its larger peers.

[thevaluehunter] 11/5/2018 15:25

$0.24bn EBITDA in Q1 bring on the dividend!

In terms of sales IG did c$210m for their last quarter vs $297m for Plus500. Feb vs march quarter ends could not have made that much difference so I still can't understand why IG has a market cap of £3.1bn vs Plus at £1.8bn.

[thevaluehunter] 09/5/2018 20:37

The trouble is the forecasts are generally very pessimistic and bake in the worst possible outcome of regulation which is highly unlikely in my opinion. I would definitely recommend going back and checking what the EPS forecasts were for FY17 and FY18 and where we are now. In my latest forecast given the first quarter I have $580m ebitda and EPS at $4.0 which could well end up being too low.

[metis20] 09/5/2018 20:30

No stopping PLUS500's expansion - from the 2017 prelims - 14th Feb 2018 -

"Plus500 will continue to invest to maintain its technological lead and high mobile penetration through innovation and development to give its customers ease of access to its platforms whether via mobile, tablet, PC or wearable devices. Following the recent grant of licences in South Africa and Singapore, we will continue to add new licenses across further geographies to increase our customer base by offering retail customers a safe and secure trading platform."

and from the FY 2017 presentation -

"Platform and Devices -
Supporting 32 languages in more than 50 countries."

[nurdin] 09/5/2018 19:46

On current forecasts and assuming the stock is rated at 17x 2018 earnings,we could see £25.

[thevaluehunter] 09/5/2018 17:42

Over on the IG home page they have: "Join IG, the world’s No.1 spread betting and CFD provider" (Based on revenue excluding FX (published financial statements, February 2018))

Might not be able to have that statement up for very long.

[thevaluehunter] 09/5/2018 17:38

IGG revenue on an LTM basis is £541m and their market cap is £3.1bn!

[thevaluehunter] 09/5/2018 17:29

Even if they do 25% yoy growth for the remaining 3 quarters that's $500m ebitda with virtually no capex and very high cash conversion. My base case scenario is somewhat higher than 25%.

[michaeljames1] 09/5/2018 16:05

Thats about $5 eps, Im optimistic but wed definitely need several more upgrades to reach that and I think it unlikely. If there was a 35/25/20/20 split of earnings or something similar then it wouldnt be far off, but it completely depends on interest in cryptos, market volatility, etc. Although the fact that so much is instantly transferred to shareholders each year makes me think once the divi is announced, unless something terrible happens, well see £20+.

[nfs] 09/5/2018 15:20

May I ask what Odey presentation?

[nurdin] 09/5/2018 15:15

Hmmm suggests 2018 eps of over £3.50....way out from current forecasts,unless I have missed recent upgrades.

[planelondon] 09/5/2018 15:01

Odey in their presentation today quote Plus500 with "17x 2018 PE multiple equals a share price of c. £60".

Make of that what you wish.

[intelligentinvestor1] 09/5/2018 14:38

As the share price is rocketing I am thinking to top up few more may be tomorrow or so.

[interceptor2] 09/5/2018 14:36

I will continue to add at certain price points as the trend continues higher. We may look back in a years time and see what may look like a high price now and instead see them as a lowly priced bargain.