Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[base7] 29/2/2024 12:32

Around 75p Ex Div today

[beergut] 29/2/2024 08:50

Any known reason for the drop this morning?

[ggplyr] 21/2/2024 06:28

I was simply disagreeing with your point that EPS equates to growth. It doesn't,
The maths is pretty simple for this.

[riverman77] 20/2/2024 22:35

Yes but those buybacks have to be funded from cash - PLUS generates massive amounts of cash and this has allowed them to do buybacks at such scale. However, even adjusting for buybacks, earnings have still been on an upward trend over the long term, although this can obviously vary depending on the year you choose as your starting date.

[ggplyr] 20/2/2024 18:58

Riverman, EPS is a great indicator of growth, until a company buys a load of its shares back, then it's useless. $275m of buy backs last year wasn't it

[riverman77] 20/2/2024 17:56

Don't have figures in front of me but EPS is way above what it was in the pre pandemic 2017 - 2019 period (with the exception of the blowout year in 2018) so don't think right to say there's a lack of growth. Earnings are obviously very lumpy but the long term trajectory is clearly upwards.

[aleman] 20/2/2024 16:13

It must be down to the famous kiss of death: BUY 1880p.



The outlook says in line with forecasts. Forecasts are marginally falling - near enough flat - for the next two years for EPS, dividend and free cashflow. The latter is around $260m+ or £210m+. If it keeps churning out cash at that level in less turbulent times, even with some reliance on interest on cash balances, surely they are not expensive, and provide an ongoing good income, coupled to insurance against more turbulent times eventually?

[riskvsreward] 20/2/2024 16:02

Share counts may be much lower now compared to 2017 as so many buybacks over the years? Is that taken into account when compare the profits? What is the comparison on eps basis?

[valueman94] 20/2/2024 15:28

I would say the main business of a Cfd provider is to make money on the spreads. So from a conservative prospective I would exclude anything that doesn’t relate to the main revenue of the core business. If interest generated from customers were paid out as dividend (as a hypothetical policy) the shareholders could get more % then plus. A bad business will put money into a checking account and make a profit. Another reason why I don’t include it. I misquoted when I said 2018. I meant 2017. Cash flow excluding movements in WK was $188m. 188m in todays money is $236m and that mostly from spreads and a lower interest rate environment. I’ve held these, and not sold a single share, since 2017 seems as you’re quoting how well you’ve done.

[riverman77] 20/2/2024 13:22

You can't just exclude customer trading and subtract that from earnings. It's not as simple as that - lower customer losses (or gains) will naturally lead to more trading activity. Similarly for interest - trading activity will tend to pick up as cash levels fall. The key measure is client income and that has been pretty steady at around 300m for the past 3 half year periods. I'd say that's not bad given lack of volatility in markets, and much better than the likes of IG or CMC (although that has very recently picked up after a string of profit warnings). I suspect today's fall is simply profit taking after strong run, coupled with the lack of any further upgrades (although probably way too early in the year for that).

2018 profits were boosted by the surge of interest in bitcoin - I remember as did very well out of PLUS
that year. Was very much a one-off, and not really a good comparator for how they're doing today.

[tomv33] 20/2/2024 13:16

Lack of buyers I guess

[valueman94] 20/2/2024 12:17

Adjusted for: inflation, interest income and customer trading income (all of which you should exclude as the business is about people trading). This is the worst year on record for profit. 2018 earnings were higher (adjusted) even though the new regulations came out. No new financial information about the acquisitions.

[beergut] 20/2/2024 12:02

Can anyone tell me what was wrong with these results that a drop of 80p 4.5% is merited

[stevenlondon3] 20/2/2024 09:58

Plus 500 is a changing animal moving into the competitive US market and B2B. I also think the company has not provided quarterly statistics that it has done in the past. So from my point of view the black box syndrome has increased. I remain a happy shareholder but would be wary of my holding becoming more significant.

[aleman] 20/2/2024 09:48

seadog - including the specials, the interim was 73.44c and final 94.62c, making 168.06c in total. 105.78c was paid in calendar 2023 - Feb and last Aug, finals and interim. I'm quoting last Aug and today's yet to be paid, interim and final, for the last financial year. It is a little odd the way they described it in the results.

[nfs] 20/2/2024 09:43

Presumably if share buy backs are effected before the dividend distribution, then the dividend per share goes up? Hence they state the gross amounts I presume

[seadog40] 20/2/2024 09:19

Actually, that's not right either! The paragraph on shareholder returns is a little ambiguous.

[seadog40] 20/2/2024 09:15

Not sure that's right. Divi declared now = 94.62c. FY = $1.05
Still a great performance.
Woof

[aleman] 20/2/2024 08:54

Consensus dividend was 75 cents. Actual dividend, in what as supposed to be a weaker year, 168 cents. If only all stocks were like this.

[base7] 20/2/2024 08:36

Amazing performance since IPO & incredible shareholder returns over a relatively short period.Still viewed by some with suspicion & perhaps continued success in the US will result in a further re rate prior to a Nasdaq listing,which must be under consideration to increase our profile further in the US

[boonboon] 20/2/2024 08:08

Great results today.

[chucko1] 14/2/2024 15:30

I think you are correct and the total fund size (inter alia) was misreported on another platform (a new platform to me).

Well, despite a few headwinds, it's good to see he believes as much as ever. As the quality of earnings increases, this becomes an even more compelling long term hold. I am assuming there are no significant regulatory bumps I have lost sight of.

[planelondon] 14/2/2024 15:05

Chucko1, for what it’s worth, I don’t see the Lancaster/Hanbury activity as being the main driver behind the recent share price movement.

The TR1 notification was the result of a small increase in the % share holding from 4.99% to 5.09%. A 0.10% increase likely the result of the ongoing buyback but triggering a TR1 as it crossed the 5% reporting threshold.

Lancaster may have purchased near to its single holding limit of 10% but by no means has it repurchased ALL the shares it sold during the period of difficulty. Previously, its share holdings were c.10m+. This would indicate to me that if the holding is currently 9.6% of the fund, the fund is c.60% smaller than it was previously and is holding 6-7 million fewer shares than before.

The three listed providers all witnessed near multi year lows in October, as did the FTSE250. Better markets and strong financial performance by the company, I think are the driving factors behind the share price movement.