Plant Health Care Share Discussion Threads

[cerrito] 17/2/2024 18:12

I note that since January 23rd when Spreadex finished raising their stake,trading volumes have been low.On the basis that the annual results come out early May, I am going on the basis we will shortly get a TU updating us on events since November 22nd.

[mjneish] 13/1/2024 20:20

Thank you. Doesn't mean they won't come back to the market, but it looks like they won't do so unless they are left with no alternative.

[pretax2] 09/1/2024 20:42

Concerning fundrasing I asked JT just before Xmas, his response below.
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ME: Do you still hold the view that no more capital raises are necessary by the company before profits? To do so at the current share-price would be terrible for stockholders.
JT: We would prefer not to go back to the market since it would indeed be terrible for shareholders. If additional capital is needed, we are considering several options that will help us get to cash breakeven.
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Possibilities might include a bridging loan or issuing sustainable bonds perhaps?
The current destocking situation is likely to persist for H1 2024 but new registrations (e.g. Sugar Cane in India) provide the opportunity for PHC to grow their way into profitability. Elsewhere the Brazil PHC field team are going gangbusters promoting Teikko. If they were footballers, they're be in the premier league.
Profits can't be too far away now and they have some juicy tax breaks to look forward to once they arrive.

[mjneish] 09/1/2024 18:03

Just given them a quick look and have a question about their cash position.

They had about $5.7 million in cash at the end of June after having raised $3.6 million in May. This could be rather less by the end of year, so it's looking a bit tight.

Given that they are moving to just above break-even this year (Cavendish's figures) if there is no slippage, what's the likelihood of a further fundraising this year? Thanks.

[pretax2] 02/1/2024 08:46

Agreed.
Fortunately the PHC field team in Brazil (who are excellent) have been doing a considerable amount of pre-approval promotion of Teikko; mentioning it at conferences, journal papers and promotional events.
Given that Teikko gives equivalent or better results to conventional approaches, I imagine relative product cost will be a powerful motivator for growers. Other advantages - tank-mix compatibility and shelf life are important.
I tend to think that there’s and appetite for Teikko in Brazil. The article on PHC949 in Agropages was the second most read article in Agropages last year. More importantly, with $215m to go at, there’s huge scope for growth with this product, and that’s just in Brazil soy.

[cerrito] 02/1/2024 07:44

Good news.
I note the timing of the approval is spot on with what they said in the interims but much sooner than the 1 to 2 years referred to in their May 9 2023 RNS when they announced it had jumped the first hurdle.
No idea why they are not automatically using the Saori distributor.
Be interesting to see how much in revenues they get in this upcoming soy harvest season and the brokers ' forecast. From the top of my head and with all the advantage of ignorance, I would say USd 1m, given how conservative farmers are. I wonder how many farmers like to brag about their ESG credentials, although good that the RNS mentioned the other advantages. Given start up costs it may not wash its face profit or cash wise this season.

[kaos3] 21/12/2023 21:49

all strange and un usual going on for ... lets say last 12 months

Griffith starts selling
they do not know what to do ... took a look ... maybe sell, maybe this or that
start saying about how good it will all be, so much revenue, new products , boasting ... like a liar who without being asked starts appologizing and explaining the issue

something is going on behind the curtains

if i remember an old bod member went away etc

smells all this

and each item listed can be rationally explained , i know it all, so do not bother

[cerrito] 21/12/2023 20:58

Thanks pretax2 for sharing that.
I am even more confused.
Yes good that they are reviewing all eventualities
but the way this is worded suggests that they have
little confidence of the (albeit v small) cash flow surplus
forecast for 2024 of the broker.

[pretax2] 21/12/2023 17:58

JT comment in reply to email 6/12
“We would prefer not to go back to the market since it would indeed be terrible for shareholders. If additional capital is needed, we are considering several options that will help us get to cash breakeven.”

I note ‘if’ additional capital need and continuing confidence about reaching breakeven in the foreseeable future.

[callumross] 21/12/2023 09:24

Broker comment "Strong recovery likely in 2024. Looking ahead, with a proven and growing product portfolio showing resilience in a tough market, we continue to see Plant Health Care as significantly undervalued and likely to recover strongly in 2024"

[cerrito] 21/12/2023 07:53

I see that the broker has put out a note and sees closing net cash at the end of this year as £4.8m and end 2024 at £5.1m(down from £4.9m and £6.2m after the interims), reiterating a target price of 42p.
It also notes the issuance of options at a strike price of 1p for 0.51pc of the share capital.
Fair enough but I still think in terms of PR they have shot themselves in the foot.
The only occasion I have had when because of a need to conserve cash directors have deferred cash remuneration was with a pre revenue Biotech SAR about 8 years ago when their liquidity issues were both real and well flagged. Have you folks had any such instances?
While it makes sense for a NED, who as I understand it is associated with RG, to leave there is only one truly independent NED and would be good to get another in.

[geraldus] 20/12/2023 08:14

They stated that the commercial business was consistently EBITDA positive and cash generative.Inventories have to run down at some point.

[cerrito] 20/12/2023 08:04

I found the RNS this morning spooky.
Did not appreciate that the liquidity situation was so bad that the executive directors have had to reduce their cash remuneration received over the next year.

[cerrito] 19/12/2023 21:01

There has been little trading of the shares so far this month so RG is being patient.
At the end of June he had 10.81% so at this rate he will be out in six months time.
I note that in April 2019 he had 36%.
Perhaps the Board/Cenkos smelt at mid year that his selling would depress the price and so got the funding at that time.
I see the other day he increased his holding in Cirata ex Wandisco

[pretax2] 19/12/2023 16:00

Griffith still selling.
Is he going all the way?
5% left to go. Can’t last forever.
Suspect Griffith is the only reason we’re getting smashed. Sooner he’s done the better.

[cerrito] 18/12/2023 17:32

Not sure if the closing share price is the lowest ever or just for a v v long time, but there seems to have been very little trading today.

[pretax2] 27/11/2023 07:48

Let’s see how reliable a morning star reversal is.

[pretax2] 24/11/2023 09:24

Spooky,
I’m no trader; in for the long term.
I agree the story hasn’t changed. PHC experiencing the downstream impact of covid 19.
Their products are sustainable, work and are selling globally. Most of the research and regulatory admin costs are behind us and we are still showing small growth despite unprecedented levels of destocking across the industry.

[spooky] 24/11/2023 07:31

I am not surprised that there have been sellers following the update but i am surprised at the volume. Large holders should be committed to the long term story and that hasn't changed. It would appear that everyone has become a trader.

[pretax2] 24/11/2023 07:16

Roll up! It’s Black Friday.
AgriTech 90% off.

[cerrito] 23/11/2023 18:36

3.8m shares traded today-of course well down from yesterday's 33m but still an active day by the PHC standards of recent months.
I was expecting to see a TR-1 more exciting than the 0.8% increase from Spreadex.

[geraldus] 23/11/2023 06:10

Oh dear.No mention yesterday of $30 million by 2025.Good job they had that raise when they did.

[cerrito] 22/11/2023 23:37

I woke up Wednesday very long and very wrong on PHC and went to bed even longer and wronger. The key that made me comfortable buying more is that they have no immediate need for funds-their equity raise in June was in retrospect a v good move.
I note Cenkos/Cavendish remain comfortable having a positive ebitda next year(good as no interest or tax to pay) , as a result of expense reduction,  though I have never had the feeling they have had much fat to cut.
We have no info on the profitability of the different geographies. Given their business mix, Mexico profitability per sales is I assume the worst and I go on the basis that NA is more profitable than La as LA more of a start up.Remember NA sales in 2022 were usd 4.8m put of usd11.8m.
Cavendish in their note referred to the FMC investor day on November 16 when FMC commented on destocking trends. Specifically this is what FMC said quote  As I said at the top of my remarks and during our quarterly earnings call two weeks ago, we are operating in an industry environment that is frankly unprecedented. The crop protection market is working through the most severe channel destock everon record. A combination of inflationary prices and concerns about supply security during 2021 and 2022 resulted in channel participants and growers over-stocking in the last couple of growing seasons.In 2023, prices and supply stabilized for several product categories while interest rates continued to trend up, resulting in the same channel participants drawing down their existing inventories while at the same time meeting steady demand on the farm. Meanwhile, channel participants are under pressure to operate with lower-than-historical inventory levels. This has reduced or delayed typical order patterns, leading to severe volume declines across the whole industry.Unquote  
Note that FMC talking about the effects of destocking continuing into H1 24.
There is however the question that on September 25 in the interims PHC wrote quote With lower inventories and strong customer on-ground sales, we are expecting a strong second half of 2023 with material revenue growth anticipated.unquote.The fact that they have changed their tune in less than two months is a blot on their copy book.
Given today's heavy trading activities with 33m shares traded we await with interest any TR1's.I have to say that in some way with the current msrcap(even if sterling is currently stronger against the dollar than it has been for much of the last year), I would be worried if we did not get a takeover bid as it would suggest that PHC is not undervalued.

[wjccghcc] 22/11/2023 09:53

Cavendish revised forecasts show net cash of $4.8mm. They're outperforming the market so a 35% selloff seems a bit harsh. Been buying mine back at 3.8p.