Plant Health Care Share Discussion Threads

[pretax2] 22/11/2023 09:10

Covid is valid excuse. Distributors bought loads of product during Covid due to transportation issues. Whist our products are selling in the US, distributors have stocks to meet demand currently.
It’s a bump in the road and will shake a few people out, but I’m struggling to see how PHC are to blame for broader economic and regulatory issues. Delays to our progress are regrettable and the share price fall is inevitable. But there’s no fatal flaw in the business model, it’ll just take a longer to play out. My shares go back into the coffee can.

[callumross] 22/11/2023 08:55

Despite this the broker target price forecast has only been reduced from 44p to 42p.

[my retirement fund] 22/11/2023 08:42

Always th power to surprise to downside

[davemac3] 22/11/2023 07:07

Mmm, 30million by 2025 looking optimistic. Still using Covid as an excuse.

[chrisdgb] 16/11/2023 13:46

Thanks.........!

[pretax2] 14/11/2023 20:16

How about nothing wrong with the company - heading for profitability with market leading products. Growth was challenged in H1 but performed well compared to the sector. Good management team, but there are fund redemptions and so they are selling. The stock is illiquid so the shareprice tanks and the tiddlers panic and sell out. Shares then bought by the big fish and once all that’s done, the tiddlers watch the share price balloon upwards without them, probably starting H1 next year. A great longterm hold on my opinion.

I own stock so DYOR.

[chrisdgb] 14/11/2023 09:19

Not currently a holder but I think looks interesting, any latest views.........?

[pretax2] 09/10/2023 16:01

An unpleasant drop for sure but 600k shares sold is only 0.2% of the company's shares. All a bit overdone.

See this
hxxps://insights.alixpartners.com/post/102imkw/the-great-destocking-analyzing-the-chemical-industrys-300-day-challenge#:~:text=Several%20high%2Dprofile%20reductions%20in,original%202023%20plans.

I think this article puts the destocking issue into perspective. My take is that supply chains screwed up during Covid with shipping being a big issue. Companies overbought leaving them with a glut of product. If the product has a shelf life (as I believe PHC's products do) then distributers destock to prevent write-downs. If the products are being bought, then distributers will need to buy more eventually.

Quite a few Argo giants are caught up in this FMC, BASF, and Westlake.

[cerrito] 09/10/2023 14:27

Thought of PHC when I saw the TU of Croda this morning and saw that too much inventory had hot their crop protection sales, though have to say do not know the read across between Croda and PHC. Seed Enhancement would include the PIN business
Quote
In Life Sciences, sales have weakened further in Crop Protection and improvement is now expected to commence in the first half of next year. Seed Enhancement continues to perform well with incremental future opportunities being driven by regulatory change
Paste

[pretax2] 03/10/2023 23:43

Interesting to see PreTec being added to pre-prepared tank mixes with other products. This is similar to Tropfen products in S. America. Small sales of different PHC products by global distributors start to add up with accretive impact on turnover.

[cerrito] 03/10/2023 21:14

The Agrii deal today of course good but do not see it helping much to the US30m sales in 25.
I have been to their website and they seem sensible people.
Confess to being confused as to why no government authorizations are not needed.
Be interesting to see if Agrii think this is a big enough deal to them for them to tweet it.

[geraldus] 30/9/2023 14:35

Sounds like him,dark glasses.Might get some smart money following on.

[pretax2] 30/9/2023 11:17

David Newlands (if the same person I think he is) is a city grandee and no stranger to takeovers. Also a good and decent chap by all accounts. No specifics in case I’ve mistaken ID.

[geraldus] 29/9/2023 14:46

David and Monique Newlands now on the register should spark some interest.

[cerrito] 29/9/2023 11:11

I was wondering if the cavalry would ride in from the US and buy the sterling-at a lower price than over the last months-to buy shares. Perhaps they are waiting the start of a new quarter.

[cerrito] 27/9/2023 20:33

Yes a good presentation.
I see that Cavendish have sales this year atUS15.9m,next year at US23m and US32m in 2025.
I personally think that this semester's sales of US10m is challenging. Silly me I should have asked how Saori sales were going in H2 ie not sure if all bought in H1. Note his comments on Brazil sugar sales going well.
PHC of course are not responsible for the Midwest drought but we need to be clear eyed that an occupational hazard of this business is that it can be blown off course by climatic factors.
The market this week shows no mercies to pre profit AIM companies who disappoint as I saw yesterday with my holding in COG.

[pugugly] 27/9/2023 19:29

"steal at current price" Which way - Jury still out (imo)
Currently getting 5%+ on cash

[pretax2] 27/9/2023 18:39

I liked the presentation too.
My concerns for future growth and profits diminished throughout.
PHC not to blame for deflation and the climate.
Good team, good products and sales growth. Will wait for the dust to settle before buying more - a steal at current price.

[geraldus] 27/9/2023 17:31

Brisk trade after hours should soak up that large sell.

[kaos3] 27/9/2023 17:04

i liked presentation a lot. they are spread around - northern and southern hemisphere. so seasonality reduced. no payment problems. professional production. RD fundament done. no problems getting registrations. best buyers/distributors. also - i could not think of a relevant question /due to my lack of knowledge/. i like PHC

i also expect that world food issues will tighten - so the focus on food related stocks will grow /general valuation increase/

[cerrito] 27/9/2023 16:48

I was interested in the emphasis in the IMC meeting about how tough
PHC's competitors/counterparts had found conditions in H1.
I do not know the US players but did check in with the Croda interims
and they do agree with what PHYC says-no idea where Croad's sales are made
quote
Following an exceptional 2022, when Crop Protection delivered both strong double-digit percentage volume growth and
price/mix, the business started the year with good momentum, delivering positive volumes and flat pricing in the first quarter
on a sequential basis. It began to experience rapid customer destocking in the second quarter, which was a factor originally
expected to materialise more gradually later in the year, with volumes down more than 30% compared with Q1. Overall, the
business grew sales in the half, with price increases and a favourable foreign exchange rate more than offsetting negative
volume.
In the Seed Enhancement business, which is approximately one third of the size of Crop Protection, a significant proportion
of sales are derived from providing enhancement services for vegetable seeds. As such, the business only sees a limited
impact from stocking cycles and delivered an 18% sales increase in the first half year, driven by strong structural growth
trends.
unquote

[geraldus] 27/9/2023 16:46

Still confident on the $30 million 2025 target and $10 million for the second half.Nothing changed but it's a bumpy road.Looking at that 1.5 million sale at the close somebody is not convinced.

[cerrito] 27/9/2023 15:29

The mid West drought rather passed me by but a Google search has sheen it was and is a big issue.

[pretax2] 27/9/2023 13:25

Sales to farmers in the US are up, seems the big distributors are clearing stocks and delaying purchases till H2.
That’s the problem with H1 H2 results, sometimes they don’t reflect the full year picture.

Looking forward the Europe picking up next year, especially Spain, Portugal, France and Poland.

[geraldus] 27/9/2023 10:04

Well,just had a top up.I'll tune in at 4pm see what's afoot.Gla.