Plant Health Care Share Discussion Threads

[cerrito] 20/4/2024 16:50

Good question slicethepie as to when they get taken out.
Industry players appear to have a different view of PHC prospects than Cavendish with their 42p target price and I am a bit uncomfortable that in all these months that the share price has been in the 3's that no-one has come on big to replace Mr Griffiths.
My question mark and indeed concern is how Ispraie see this. I have no insight into their level of patience/requirement for liquidity nor indeed of their investors. The mind boggles as to what would happen to he share price if they followed-or tried to follow-Mr Griffiths to the exit door.

[pretax2] 17/4/2024 09:20

To be honest the share price here is disconnected from reality. For example a brilliant RNS yesterday causes the share price to go down??
Very important that any takeover offer represents realistic value and that unrepresentative offers are rejected early doors. If a hostile situation leads to a buyer accumulating, this could get interesting.

[slicethepie] 17/4/2024 08:33

There is a note out from cavendish today. Fwiw price target 40p.Does this get taken out?

[robsy2] 17/4/2024 07:45

I am trying to get my head around the investment case for this company so have PHC on my watchlist, am readingthe posts and research with interest.
Lots of bumps in the road but the company seems to be making good progress and is about to become profitable yet the share price is at an all time low.
With new distribution deals and approvals being announced, could be things are on the move?

[cerrito] 16/4/2024 08:24

From the way it is worded my reading is that no regulatory approvals are required in China but would have been good to get clarity on this.
Confused by the reference to novel as it is good old harpin and my reading is that it is because it is being incorporated into an existing AMVAC product line. I may be wrong but if true could be v exciting.
American Vanguard is listed and describes itself as an agriculture and speciality chemical company. Sales and profits declined in 2023 over 2022 and indeed eps declined from 92us cents to 26.It does have a green division.They attributed fall in 2023 sales to our old friend destocking(though said this reversed in q4 calendar 2023), oversupply of Chinese generic products(not a PHC issue) and supply chain problems.

[pretax2] 16/4/2024 07:43

There’re no figures on this RNS, but China distribution commencing this year is a huge opportunity for PHC. I look forward to hearing more; also nice to know PHC are alive and kicking.

[pretax2] 07/4/2024 18:44

Hi Cerrito
Not sure how to interpret this (+ve or -ve) as far as PHC is concerned.

1/ "Indigo expanded into too many product areas": PHC have not - they've stuck with Harpin derived peptides.
2/ "Industry of slow adapters": Accepted; but environmental (and supermarket) policy is forcing growers to embrace sustainable growing techniques or lose market share.
3/ "Many of these agtech companies are not ‘tech’ companies, they are simply ‘tech enabled’". ['Tech enabled'?] Harpin is a scientific discovery which has been adapted and enhanced by PHC at its Seattle laboritory. All of the IP belongs to PHC.

Somewhat paradoxically, Covid was 'initially' a good thing for PHC (distributors over-stocked), but now a bad thing with the current destocking. This out to be ending around about now so we can get back on the growth path. Time for an update.

[cerrito] 07/4/2024 15:31

Note there is a US non listed company called Indigo Ag which I heard about reading comments on MNTN whose valuation declined in 2023 from £15.8m to £££800k.
The problems in this company were largely self inflicted as they expanded into too many product areas.
Last August they launched in the US a bionematicide to fight soybean cyst nematode.

Comments about this company’s travails is that they are in an industry of slow adapters and also a comment from an investor that quote “It is investors acknowledging that many of these agtech companies are not ‘tech’ companies, they are simply ‘tech enabled,’ which has a very different multiple of dynamics such as margins and marginal cost structure.unquote
Perhaps provides some insight into how PHC-rightly or wrongly-is seen in the US investment community.

[pretax2] 27/2/2024 14:02

So 2023 profits were stolen by 2022 over-purchase by distributors.

Look forward to getting the 2023 TS out of the way. We all know it’s going to be poor. As soon as the destocking issue resolves we can get back on track. I regret the lost year, but we live in unpredictable times.

[cerrito] 27/2/2024 09:15

More comments on destocking in the crop protection market this morning from Croda i
Quote
Crop Protection is developing sustainable crop care solutions as well as delivery systems for biopesticides, launching two new delivery systems, one specially designed for biologicals and the second for drone delivery. Following an exceptional 2022, when Crop Protection delivered both strong double-digit percentage volume growth and price/mix, the business started the year with good momentum, but began to experience rapid customer destocking in the second quarter. Volume weakness continued throughout the second half year, to fall 21% year-on-year with a small offset from positive price/mix, resulting in sales falling 19% overall. In Seed Enhancement, most sales are derived from providing just-in-time enhancement services for vegetable seeds so the business only saw a limited impact from destocking, delivering 9% sales growth driven by strong structural growth trends. Seed Enhancement is winning market share through its leadership in microplastic-free seed coatings which are in high demand following the EU's decision to ban the use of microplastics in agriculture in the next five years

[pretax2] 22/2/2024 07:47

One way to deal with destocking is to give distributors a new product to stock. Like Saori in Mexico.
Well done PHC

[cerrito] 20/2/2024 08:45

While I am unsure about the read across between PHC and FMC, I note that in their February 5th results outlook statement FMC referred to continued destocking in the US crop protection market in H1 with some recovery in H2.

[kaos3] 20/2/2024 07:28

Unfortunatly we know how reliable they are

[pretax2] 20/2/2024 07:15

A TU documenting the impact of unprecedented de-stocking.
I’m not looking forward to that one.
The forward statement is more important. Most pundits suggest that the de-stocking issue will be resolved by H2. Will be glad to see the back of it.

[cerrito] 17/2/2024 18:12

I note that since January 23rd when Spreadex finished raising their stake,trading volumes have been low.On the basis that the annual results come out early May, I am going on the basis we will shortly get a TU updating us on events since November 22nd.

[mjneish] 13/1/2024 20:20

Thank you. Doesn't mean they won't come back to the market, but it looks like they won't do so unless they are left with no alternative.

[pretax2] 09/1/2024 20:42

Concerning fundrasing I asked JT just before Xmas, his response below.
-------------
ME: Do you still hold the view that no more capital raises are necessary by the company before profits? To do so at the current share-price would be terrible for stockholders.
JT: We would prefer not to go back to the market since it would indeed be terrible for shareholders. If additional capital is needed, we are considering several options that will help us get to cash breakeven.
-------------
Possibilities might include a bridging loan or issuing sustainable bonds perhaps?
The current destocking situation is likely to persist for H1 2024 but new registrations (e.g. Sugar Cane in India) provide the opportunity for PHC to grow their way into profitability. Elsewhere the Brazil PHC field team are going gangbusters promoting Teikko. If they were footballers, they're be in the premier league.
Profits can't be too far away now and they have some juicy tax breaks to look forward to once they arrive.

[mjneish] 09/1/2024 18:03

Just given them a quick look and have a question about their cash position.

They had about $5.7 million in cash at the end of June after having raised $3.6 million in May. This could be rather less by the end of year, so it's looking a bit tight.

Given that they are moving to just above break-even this year (Cavendish's figures) if there is no slippage, what's the likelihood of a further fundraising this year? Thanks.

[pretax2] 02/1/2024 08:46

Agreed.
Fortunately the PHC field team in Brazil (who are excellent) have been doing a considerable amount of pre-approval promotion of Teikko; mentioning it at conferences, journal papers and promotional events.
Given that Teikko gives equivalent or better results to conventional approaches, I imagine relative product cost will be a powerful motivator for growers. Other advantages - tank-mix compatibility and shelf life are important.
I tend to think that there’s and appetite for Teikko in Brazil. The article on PHC949 in Agropages was the second most read article in Agropages last year. More importantly, with $215m to go at, there’s huge scope for growth with this product, and that’s just in Brazil soy.

[cerrito] 02/1/2024 07:44

Good news.
I note the timing of the approval is spot on with what they said in the interims but much sooner than the 1 to 2 years referred to in their May 9 2023 RNS when they announced it had jumped the first hurdle.
No idea why they are not automatically using the Saori distributor.
Be interesting to see how much in revenues they get in this upcoming soy harvest season and the brokers ' forecast. From the top of my head and with all the advantage of ignorance, I would say USd 1m, given how conservative farmers are. I wonder how many farmers like to brag about their ESG credentials, although good that the RNS mentioned the other advantages. Given start up costs it may not wash its face profit or cash wise this season.

[kaos3] 21/12/2023 21:49

all strange and un usual going on for ... lets say last 12 months

Griffith starts selling
they do not know what to do ... took a look ... maybe sell, maybe this or that
start saying about how good it will all be, so much revenue, new products , boasting ... like a liar who without being asked starts appologizing and explaining the issue

something is going on behind the curtains

if i remember an old bod member went away etc

smells all this

and each item listed can be rationally explained , i know it all, so do not bother

[cerrito] 21/12/2023 20:58

Thanks pretax2 for sharing that.
I am even more confused.
Yes good that they are reviewing all eventualities
but the way this is worded suggests that they have
little confidence of the (albeit v small) cash flow surplus
forecast for 2024 of the broker.

[pretax2] 21/12/2023 17:58

JT comment in reply to email 6/12
“We would prefer not to go back to the market since it would indeed be terrible for shareholders. If additional capital is needed, we are considering several options that will help us get to cash breakeven.”

I note ‘if’ additional capital need and continuing confidence about reaching breakeven in the foreseeable future.

[callumross] 21/12/2023 09:24

Broker comment "Strong recovery likely in 2024. Looking ahead, with a proven and growing product portfolio showing resilience in a tough market, we continue to see Plant Health Care as significantly undervalued and likely to recover strongly in 2024"