Photonstar Led Share Discussion Threads

[mega_trader] 09/10/2013 13:26

Seems good value and decent discount to broker targets. Is Drew Nelson from IQE still involved?, he seems to think LED is a massive market. The new build housing and retrofit office/factory/hotel sector look a perfect match for psl. Are new regulations forcing newbuild to adopt energy efficient lighting?

Could be an update due on the licensing agreement, manufacturing could have started. I know some led plants due to ramp up production. Could be a biggie imo.

[chrisdgb] 04/10/2013 08:10

Agreed, I have expected high things of the CEO.....needs to start delivering...

[beeezzz] 03/10/2013 22:26

Slowly slipping down, the company needs to come out with a nice juicy order to reverse the trend.

[chrisdgb] 20/9/2013 10:23

Well similar to one of my other holdings, Servicepower, some serious Director buying would send the best message to the market.....................

[yump] 19/9/2013 12:49

The opportunity as I see it is simply that for example a measly pbt of £250,000 from revenue of say £5mln, would give earnings of around 0.25p and if there are signs of consistent growth emerging from the loss-making background, the p/e will get to at least 20, as soon as there's any evidence of that profit.

Mainly because the forecast will rise to say £500,000 pbt, which would be a 100% jump, giving a forward p/e of 10.

It might not keep growing of course, but you don't have to pencil in much to see what might happen.

Unfortunate for anyone that bought in much higher up though, I'd be understandably miffed.

[yump] 19/9/2013 12:38

I think its a reasonable bet at this level. Revenues increasing, second half is construction influenced and construction is on the up.

Can second guess lots, but the forward statement is quite positive.

If nothing else, its a recovery play, even if it was just another led supplier.

Plus Google are using it. Expect any big buyers to start another thread with some reference to Google - that's the norm isn't it ;-)

[mrphil] 19/9/2013 11:27

Have been watching these with interest since before the Enfis reverse takeover and amazed they have never managed to turn a profit despite some fairly decent growth. They promote their good colour rendering as a major advantage but the general trend in LED's from the big players is for improved colour rendering as well as increased efficiency so FWIW I believe PSL will struggle more and more to be able to command a premium for their products - up against too many big companies imho. Some nice products and I'm keen on the "British manufacturing" element and intended to jump aboard in the earlier days but never bought in and can't see any reason to now, but good luck all holders.

[beeezzz] 16/9/2013 16:36

Sadly, overheads outweigh income, if they are to survive they need some substantial contracts before YE. Higher volume today.

[saucepan] 16/9/2013 11:17

Following with interest from the sidelines as back in December I had thought this could be one of the stellar performers of 2013. The promise has not been realised and I see nothing in the latest results to tempt me back in; quite the contrary really. I can now see this fizzling out.

Good luck to those who keep the faith.

[chrisdgb] 16/9/2013 10:41

Some decent Director share purchases would send a strong message about the confidence.....

[midmarsh30] 16/9/2013 09:27

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (Sorry Pug!)

Where do I start? I suppose this supports my pessimism over the last 6 months!
Cliff and Pug - I totally agree "Jam tomorrow" and "ars* covering"

Results - Sales (+13%) and GP(+12%) - as already reported. But Admin expenses up by (+13.5%). So, as I previously suggested, Loss before tax is up from £513k to £570k. EBITDA loss of £310k, but Co says EBITDA breakeven for whole year, so can we envisage an EBITDA profit of £620k for H2 (Last year was H2 minus £310k loss before tax) - Jam tomorrow.

Balance sheet - Receivables up by 22.7%, but sales only up by 13% - Credit control Risk. Inventories up by 34.9% but COS only up by 14% - Stocking up for H2? or Stock control Risk?

Cash Control - Cash at 31 Dec 2012 - £1.95m, at 30 June 2013 £637k. So a reduction in cash asset of £1.3m. Borrowings up slightly from £816k to £960k (+144), so a cash burn of £1.46m. In fact almost all of the 2012 fund raising has been used already. So deduct 30 June cash of £637k from borrowings of £960k, means the Co now has no cash and net borrowings of £323k (plus provisions of £122k).

Disclosure of cash position - CEO says "Based on current sales projections, the Board remains comfortable that the Group has adequate working capital facility to finance its anticipated growth" So whether the Co remains viable is the biggest issue, and the Board says nothing about it!!!. The statement regurgitates the wording from the 2012 fin stats, including the auditors' Emphasis of Matter, but at that time,(31.12.2012) the Co had £1.14m net cash, now, 6 months later it has net borrowing of £323k. The position has changed completely and the Co says nothing. The notes to the interim 30 June 2013 statement all re-quote what was said in the 2012 fin stats.

In their Conclusion the Directors say ".....after taking account of the Group's current funding position ... projections... risks ... uncertainties ... the directors have a reasonable expectation that ..... has access to adequate resources to continue in operational existence for the foreseeable future (i.e. 12 months from today 16/09/2013. So the directors have adopted a going concern basis. Elsewhere says "No additional equity funding has been assumed .....there can be no guarantee that it would be ... available"

It is a case of: if the directors said what really should have been said the market reaction would probably kill it today. I trust that the directors have taken good advice from an insolvency specialist in deciding what to say in the Interim Statement, but more pertinently, what they have not said and ought to have!!

That's the Bad and the Ugly, and now the Good: ......

That's likely to be my penultimate post on this Co, until the next one beginning "R.I.P ...."

[chrisdgb] 16/9/2013 08:25

The Nomura Code, 19p, share price target will do me.......

[cliffpeat] 16/9/2013 08:08

Update on the far more exciting (though still to be proved) LIFX at hxxp://www.kickstarter.com/projects/limemouse/lifx-the-light-bulb-reinvented/posts

[chrisdgb] 16/9/2013 08:04

At least we know the construction/house building sector is in serious recovery mode at the moment....

[brad44] 16/9/2013 07:42

the Chinese will be on to it like flies on the proverbial, tunable led sounds fun, but how often do you envisage change? halogen gives the best colour render, metal halide is equally as energy efficient as led and better colour render for retail, so I cant see where this lamp will flourish? IMHO

[someuwin] 16/9/2013 07:33

Looks like Philips are way ahead of PSL with colour changing lights.

Check out HUE, Philips colour changing LED light controllable from your smartphone...

[cliffpeat] 16/9/2013 07:33

Steady as we go - but still jam tomorrow.

Not impressed with: "We remain excited ... " Looking for "confident that..." and based on some believable theory.

Tend to think it is a cop out when total market numbers are banded about.

Some re-assurance: "As with prior years, sales revenue is expected to be weighted towards the second half of the year, driven by seasonal increases in construction activity and the introduction in the second quarter of the Group's new, more efficient and competitive versions of its LED fixture products, which have already been well received by customers. The current financial period is already seeing month on month improving EBITDA levels. The Board expects the Group to be EBITDA breakeven for the year as a whole.

Based on current sales projections, the Board remains comfortable that the Group has adequate working capital facility available to finance its anticipated growth."

Of course earnings *after* ITDA will be the real achievement and seems some way off.

One to tuck away in my opinion. As ever DYOR.

[pugugly] 16/9/2013 07:27

"We remain on track with the continued development and improvement of the ChromaWhite range including the smart lamp, a standard lamp form factor with full wireless control. We believe that products such as these will revolutionize the lighting industry and help drive the Group's growth."



BUT STILL SOME WAY FROM EBITDA BREAKEVEN..

imo The group has some value but market is cut throat. Management have considerable skin in the game so will not want dilution.

The critical diver appears to be ChromaWhite.

"PhotonStar's ChromaWhite range is the first widely colour tuneable light source, providing exceptional colour rendering. ChromaWhite is protected by a series of patents, a number of which have now been granted. A prototype ChromaWhite colour tuneable smart lamp in a standard lamp form factor, with full wireless control has been demonstrated publically and is now being evaluated by customers."

There appear to ahve been significant delays with thsi product and we need strong potential customer feedback -

Do any readers of this thread have deirect experience of thsi product ??

Still holding but not adding at the moment.

[chrisdgb] 13/9/2013 08:51

Roll on Monday.........(I think..!!)

[battlebus2] 12/9/2013 08:43

Yes this has been a long long struggle against the tide, seems like years from when we seemed to be the only holders of Enfis. Determined to see this through one way or the other.

[chrisdgb] 12/9/2013 08:39

Indeed but you would hope we should be seeing some real positive traction by now....

[battlebus2] 12/9/2013 08:29

Aren't they always :))

[chrisdgb] 12/9/2013 08:29

Results on Monday are going to be fascinating............