Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[sunshine today] 24/10/2023 19:02

The U.K. house builders have yet again played the game, and lost.

The plan was to hold the line on prices and use hidden incentives.

Then, wait for the pick up in sales in the Autumn.

The opposite has occurred, with sales slumping on top of the dismal summer.

[sikhthetech] 24/10/2023 18:50

PSN reached a new low yesterday for current housing market cycle.

Ghost developments are a real possibility. HBs need to reduce prices and/or increase incentives, both reduce margins.

[beckers2008] 24/10/2023 11:21

sT/Sikhthetech,

Sums you up quite nicely, lol!
Your a classic mug-punter who's lost over 85% in TLY.

paul planet earth119 Oct '23 - 08:06 - 957 of 958

Looking at this thread this is exactly what happens when you Sikhthetech spend your entire life rubbishing and mocking others investments when your beloved TLY a BB you set up over ten years ago to ramp the f@@k out of is in fact a huge steaming pile of sh@t..FACT!

Free advice from the Nanoco BB posters!

Enjoy!

[sunshine today] 24/10/2023 10:23

jo236224 Oct '23 - 10:34 - 4766 of 4766

Sunshine the broken record!
PSN is a bargain at these prices, we are at the bottom or very close to it, for me this is easily a buy!

///////////////

Umm, yet it hits new lows by the day. !!

House prices have increased 365% ABOVE inflation over the last 70 years.

The elastic band has snapped.

Debt is over 100% of GDP to get it back, the U.K. needs a constant growth rate of 6% when in fact it’s likely to be in the range of - 3% to plus 3/4%

[blackhorse23] 24/10/2023 10:21

Out now & bought GATC , excellent dividend announcement today

[jo2362] 24/10/2023 09:34

Sunshine the broken record!
PSN is a bargain at these prices, we are at the bottom or very close to it, for me this is easily a buy!

[kreature] 24/10/2023 09:14

‘ the rate hiking cycle is over.’

Don’t think so cos over 20% of inflation is housing payments, ie rent and mortgage payments which are about to rocket due to fixed rates ending.

[sunshine today] 24/10/2023 08:32

Yep yesterdays trading update from VISTRY.

Private sales

[hedge fund harry] 24/10/2023 07:08

sunshine today says 'The last 7 weeks the competition sold the equivalent of 26 homes ( larger number of outlets at PSN.'


I cannot find these statistics anywhere online. Can someone show me where they come from.

[zho] 24/10/2023 07:01

Persimmon mentioned several times in this article:

Cracked tiles, wonky gutters, leaning walls – why are Britain’s new houses so rubbish?

[sunshine today] 24/10/2023 06:29

U.K. wage growth out of control.

So don’t expect the rate increases to stop.

US inflation going higher.

[dan_the_epic] 24/10/2023 05:48

FT saying ecb pausing hikes. the rate hiking cycle is over. time for the yield long end to start coming in and for housebuilders to rally! anything like this can see earnings double and so the peg's here are lovely if you only have a little patience, under 1000p may look like a complete GIFT HORSE in a few years

[kreature] 24/10/2023 00:44

Mortgage affordability is going down the toilet, as is the share price here ?

[sunshine today] 23/10/2023 13:50

PSN need to sell around 750 homes a month.

The last 7 weeks the competition sold the equivalent of 26 homes ( larger number of outlets at PSN.

If that’s the case then sales are off a cool 96%.

[sunshine today] 23/10/2023 13:41

Sales have stopped dead, read the trading update from VTY

142 sales outlets sold a combined 29 plots over the last 7 weeks !!

Not per week

Basically sales were zero for this £2BN HOUSE BUILDER.

[sunshine today] 23/10/2023 13:38

Look for 30% off prices the recession has not even started.

[fozzyb] 23/10/2023 13:23

A correction but not a crash is likely healthy but won't be distributed evenly across type of dwellings or regions. The fact that older generations have created wealth in property will trickle through as most people hand directly to their descendants. There is also overseas investors. Whilst the pound sits around 1.2 to the dollar, there is still value to international investors.

[fozzyb] 23/10/2023 13:20

I agree the outlook is bleak but there is a constraint in supply when looking at net immigration patterns. Interest rates don't affect everyone equally. Those with low relative mortgage values will have been actively overpaying where possible. The most recent stats I can find are from 2020.8.8 million (36%) were owned outright6.8 million (28%) were owned with a mortgage or a loa n4.8 million (19%) were privately rented4.2 million (17%) were in social rent, mainly rented from housing associations and local authorities.So the main focus should be those with mortgages of which 1.4m are due to come off lower rates in the next 12m but as a % of overall supply, it's not as catastrophic as media may have you believe.

[sunshine today] 23/10/2023 10:07

Look across the pond 30 year mortgages (the standard). are now 8% !!!!

[porsche1945] 23/10/2023 09:48

If you have money in U.K. builders ( materials as well ) or financials I’d be hitting the exit at high speed. You l be buying this stuff back in 6 months 50pc under where it is now, it’s literally 5 companies holding up the entire index. When they roll over it’s back to 5400.

[sunshine today] 23/10/2023 08:02

fozzyb

Just for balance.

You’re correct the odd hard working professional couple ( no kids, pets, meals out, car, or holiday can still purchase a house.

The issue being that millions of previous purchasers have been stitched up at ridiculously high prices and prospective buyers are not even in the frame.

The product will half from here over this decade

[sunshine today] 23/10/2023 07:49

VTY direct competition todays trading update

It’s the sales you need to focus on.

142 active sites all those sales staff, and only one in one in five sold a single house, over the last 7 weeks !!

The shares should be off 30%

They will be over the next few months

[sunshine today] 23/10/2023 07:47

Umm, average house prices 6 to 12 times average income .

Hence the actual number of working people who could buy from scratch a house today is probably 5%

Have you seen todays dire news from the competition.