Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 16/11/2022 11:20

Porsche
"Forecast comes as it emerged banks were preparing to slash mortgage lending even before mini-Budget"

They weren't preparing to slash mortgage lending, they were actually doing it, 2 months before the mini-budget. I posted it in July, 2 months before the mini-budget.




sikhthetech - 11 Jul 2022 - 16:54:16 - 7788 of 11259
Property price crash mentioned more and more in media... as expected
;-)



Boom to bust? House prices in Britain could fall up to 10% 'soon' as interest rates rise, economists warn

Surge in prices 'looks alarmingly similar' to the run-up to the 2008 crisis

"This recent surge in prices 'looks alarmingly similar' to what happened in the run-up to the global financial crisis, Shearing said, although he noted that a crisis of the scale of 2008 was 'unlikely'."

"This will eventually prompt a correction in prices, with signs that this is happening already here, according to the economist, who predicts this time it will happen faster than during the 2008 crash. "

"Measures of housing market activity, such as mortgage approvals and sales, have all started to drop, the economist said, describing this as the 'third stage' of a typical housing downturn, coming after a slowdown in market sentiment and buyer enquiries."


"'What's more, compared to the mid-2000s, this one is happening more quickly, with most indicators showing sharper initial falls.'"

[beckers2008] 16/11/2022 10:23

FACT - the 10 yr gilt yield has fallen from 3.295% to 3.27% this morning, as expected. This will fall as we move into December.

The Autumn statement will influence gilt yields to fall further.

As I have been warning the trolls who were and are completely wrong as usual, BOE base rate at 6% - Absolutely no chance.

Markets look forward not back! Keep up village idiot's, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 14/11/2022 18:26

Rightmove.

House prices fall in November

Oct avg £371,158
Nov avg £366,999

[beckers2008] 14/11/2022 12:54

Sikhthetech, the village idiot posting old news again, lol!

FACT - the 30 yr gilt yield is now at 3.422 lower than the 9th August.

FACT - the 10 yr gilt yield is now at 3.295% lower than the 20th September. This will fall as we move into December.

The Autumn statement will influence gilt yields to fall further.

As I have been warning the trolls who were and are completely wrong as usual, BOE base rate at 6% - Absolutely no chance.

Keep up village idiot, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 14/11/2022 12:20

There you go, reported today. Demand falling, as per my stance.

As commented, watch the demand decrease and supply increase

;-)


Exodus of first-time buyers puts brakes on UK housing market


"Figures from the property platform Rightmove show buyer demand fell 20% in October compared with a year ago, as house-hunters put their property searches on hold in response to soaring borrowing costs and rising economic uncertainty."

"Rightmove’s monthly house price index showed first-time buyers were the most hesitant, with demand down 26% in October. Demand from “second steppers” hoping to move from their first home was down 17%, while interest among those at the top of the property ladder was down 15%."

[sikhthetech] 14/11/2022 12:15

The repossession data was from a few days ago, so not a point made hundreds of times..doh!!!

The repossession data backs up my stance that I expect them to rise, April onwards, once they are legal again and courts catch up, post pandemic.

Clearly rampers getting rattled and afraid of the facts.

The trolling sheep have been proven to be completely wrong.
;-)

[time 2 retire] 13/11/2022 19:34

Sikh, are you stt1 over on LSE by any chance?
He/she/it peddles the same old negative doom and gloom that you continously post on here!
Get a life mate, you've made your point hundreds of times!

[sikhthetech] 13/11/2022 18:37

There you go, repossessions rising, as expected, April onwards after govn support ended and courts catching up with the backlog.
90% up from last year.
15% up on the quarter

all as expected.
;-)

Watch the demand decrease and supply increase



Mortgage repossessions up 90% as families warned of ‘ticking time bomb’
Rishi Sunak urged to act as landlord repossession claims also shoot up




Up 15% on the qtr:

House repossessions start to climb amid cost of living crisis: Properties taken back by banks rise 15% in three months as mortgage rates shoot up







sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<...>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price

[odillon] 11/11/2022 00:30

Just saw we are past midnight, for "today" in my last post please read "yesterday" i.e. 10 November.

[odillon] 11/11/2022 00:29

ST - You are quoting random statistics.

Today SHEL was down 2.87% and PSN was up 7.53% - so doing about 10% better than Shel Oil just in a day

I cited a series of articles a while back in which the writer took the view that a seemingly negative event could be the trigger for recovery. He suggested that new lowered share price targets could be such a catalyst. We've just had that and there is already upward movement.

Is your negativity now past its sell by date?

[beckers2008] 10/11/2022 23:12

For the village idiot's 'sT' and 'Sikhthetech' unless you are one of the same, lol!
You have been warned, again, lol!

"China is slipping back into deflation. Factory gate prices rolled over in the spring and have been falling in absolute terms for the last three months. Annual core inflation has dropped to 0.6pc.

The workshop of the world will again be exporting goods disinflation to Europe and America within months, undercutting Western industries on a large scale. This is likely to deepen the industrial and manufacturing downturn in the West and has powerful implications for interest rates and the trajectory of inflation. The Bank of England may be vindicated for refusing to join other central banks heading for monetary overkill"

Unlike the gun ho, dollar propping FED who have overextended themselves, the BOE have been the sensible players.

When will the Yanks ever learn, lol, just lol!

[encarter] 10/11/2022 21:12

Lol, 10% isn't a crash. It would take us to last year's prices when PSN were paying the same divi.

[sikhthetech] 10/11/2022 20:26

Following on from lenders forecasting 10-15% crash in house prices, RICS index now turned negative, from +30 in Sept to -2 in Oct.


That's as well as:

Lenders reporting drop in prices.
Lenders forecasting 10-15% crash in house prices for next year.

Asking prices significantly lower.
Mortgage approvals falling.
HBs stating slowing housing market, increase in cancellations, falling demand.

Demand falling, as expected

Best to trade hyped sectors
;-)


RICS, surveyors index has gone from +30 in Sept to -2 in for last month.

"The RICS UK Residential Market Survey showed that a net balance of -2% of respondents cited an increase in house prices in October 2022, turning negative for the first time since June 2020 as rising mortgage costs stoked caution among buyers."

"New buyer enquiries also fell for the sixth straight month in October, while survey feedback on buyer demand was negative across the UK."

RICS chief economist, Simon Rubinsohn said: “The latest feedback to the RICS survey provides further evidence of buyer caution in the face of the sharp rise in mortgage costs. As a result, the volume of activity is likely to slip back over the coming months and realistic pricing is now much more important to complete a sale."

[jugears] 10/11/2022 18:01

Sikh I spoke to her days ago & did comment on Tw thread about the very competitive mortgage market but thought I would post again as you are always so negative! Hbs will build to order, no orders no houses but they still have the land to build on when the markets pick by which time build cost will have plunged by 15-20% & when demand picks up & there are few houses to purchase then house price will spiral, I'm not bothered about dividends as long as they cover their cost whilst there is a down turn then that's fine with me , they dont need to buy any land for the next few years unless its cheap & most site staff are subbies anyway so can cut cost immediately if the need arises as you know once markets pick up hb's profits recover very quickly ,other markets like airlines will probably never recover!

[sikhthetech] 10/11/2022 17:50

Jugears

"looks like lenders want to cut mortgage rates according to a friend who manages a building society as it is now a very competitive market,"

Funny you didn't your BS friend before the USA CPI figures came out!!!
You posting in hindsight again.

It's plain obvious interest rates will come down. The crucial point you miss is this will encourage potential homebuyers to wait until the do so. Therefore loss of millions of pounds for HBs, whilst potential homebuyers hold off.

Watch the demand decrease and the supply increase. HB statements have already backed up my stance on this.

[beckers2008] 10/11/2022 17:43

Jugs,

You don't expect answer from 'Sikhthetech', lol! It won't be the first time!

Just the same old C&P 'Sikhthetech' BS.
I see it is answering for sT, could they be one of the same village idiot, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 10/11/2022 17:28

Odillon,

"the HB share prices would not follow the FTSE herd."

Easyjet have gone up 40% in a month and up around 30% since I mentioned them on here only 3 weeks ago

Since I mentioned EZJ only 3 weeks ago:
FTSE is up around 7%
PSN up is up around 10%.
EZJ up around 30%.

Housing market boomed due to covid, travel was badly impacted. Now, with people 'living with covid', things have turned around, housing market bleak, travel booming.
People will still go on holiday, cheaper holidays, for the sake of their kids and their own wellbeing.
Wizzair/EZJ updates showed business was booming, HB updates showed sales slowing, cancellations increasing, outlook uncertain.

[jugears] 10/11/2022 17:09

So basically sikh you are saying we have hit the bottom?

[cupra kid] 10/11/2022 17:09

Surprise surprise, nothing on the mainstream news about a good day for the stock market. Guaranteed that if the markets had fallen by the same amount it would be headline news.

[odillon] 10/11/2022 16:05

ST I can't help but feel that, if the prospects as we stand are as bleak for house builders as you suggest, the HB share prices would not follow the FTSE herd.

What potential initiatives in the Chancellor's statement would dispel your concerns about trading HB shares just now.

[beckers2008] 10/11/2022 16:03

Russian withdrawal, lol.
They are only going further away from the river to secure their positions.
'Sikhthetech' what a complete idiot, lol, just lol!

Meanwhile uk interest rates not rising as much but you were warned.
FED ramping dollar too much too quick, you were warned about this also.

HB TU's not as bad as feared.