Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[kreature] 03/12/2023 22:03

Yep, let’s all sing jingle bells as the county councils declare bankruptcy in the UK, and households barely have enough money to buy food

[bountyhunter] 03/12/2023 21:32

The point is that with mortgage rate cuts beginning the tide has most probably turned. PSN is rising again for that reason imho as the stock market looks ahead which is why November was such a good month, Santa's rally to follow 🎅 📈

[cupra kid] 03/12/2023 21:12

Adam, a lot of those would have had pay rises too, some of them a very decent pay rise.

[sikhthetech] 03/12/2023 19:29

Another week gone and still hundreds of PSN homes available on OntheMarket.

[kreature] 03/12/2023 17:53

…and surely food prices are a big contributor to poverty, especially if you can’t be bothered to cook spaghetti. Meanwhile the same PSN homes sit reduced but still unsold imv

[sikhthetech] 03/12/2023 14:19

AdamB,

The fact is mortgage interest rate is still double what it was.

You mention 5 years ago but what about those who bought at highs over the past 2-3 years, when covid was causing mayhem?

It is those hundreds of thousands which the media/experts refer to, not those who bought years ago.

The govn SD hol ended in Sept 2021, so just over 2 years ago. There was a rush to buy homes before it ended. At that time mortgage rates were significantly lower.


The other point is Help to Buy ended only a year ago, Oct 2022. For months prior to the scheme ending, there was a rush for FTBs to take advantage. The mortgage rate was significantly lower.



"However they've had 5 years' payrises to offset that cost increase."

Pay rises were minimal when inflation was low, around 1-2%, then increasing last year, as inflation took off.
So they wouldn't have offset the doubling+++ of mortgage interest over the past 5 years.


Plus it's not just just about mortgage interest, there's also interest on credit cards/loans. Increases in council tax, utility bills, fuel etc. There was govn support for utility bills last winter but not this.

[sikhthetech] 03/12/2023 14:10

bountyhunter,

"some fixed rates finally beginning to fall"

Everyone within the housing market chain, mortgage lenders, surveyors, conveyancing solicitors etc are dependent on the number of TRANSACTIONS. That is their life line, otherwise they will go out of business.
Mortgage lenders are fighting to gain customers as the number of transactions have fallen.

As with any business, they make cuts to entice customers.
As with any purchase, if customers see prices coming down in the future then a lot of potential customers (homebuyers) would wait until it's cheaper.
Would you make a huge purchase, if there was no urgency, if you believed it would be cheaper months down the line?

If there was high demand, why do you think HBs have reduced the number they build?


Transactions from Gov website

"the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in October 2023 is 90,920, 17% lower than October 2022 and 2% lower than September 2023

the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in October 2023 is 82,910, 21% lower than October 2022 and 3% lower than September 2023"

[adamb1978] 03/12/2023 09:10

re the interest rate sensitivity:

Let's take an illustrative borrower who was 90% LTV 5 years ago but today is probably around 50%-70% LTV just based on price rises and depending on where in the country you are.

That borrower taking a 60% LTV 5 year with Nationwide today is borrowing at 4.43%.

What were they borrowing at 5 year ago when they were 90% LTV? Not sure but it certainly wouldnt have been 2% and I doubt < 3%.

So I expect that borrower's rate has gone up, but it hasnt doubled.

Say it's gone up 50% though, so from 3% to the 4.43% today. And also assume that their mortgage payment was 40% of their monthly outgoings. Therefore their cost base has increased 20% vs 5 years ago.

However they've had 5 years' payrises to offset that cost increase.

So lots of assumptions in there, but none of which I feel are outlandish...point is though that the impact of people rolling off previous rates to a new one isn't anything like what the media makes out

[bountyhunter] 03/12/2023 08:40

or just a case of being less negative with some fixed rates finally beginning to fall and the share price here having hit rock bottom, I hope ;-)

[kreature] 02/12/2023 21:53

But 24% of inflation is made up of mortgage and rent payments which are inflating due to so many fixed rate 2% deals ending. And I still see the same Persimmon homes on the market unsold. Wish I could sound more positive

[bountyhunter] 02/12/2023 19:42

But better than before that news, hence the upturn as interest rates are looking to have peaked.

[kreature] 02/12/2023 12:52

Sounds great but that’s still more than double the fixed 2% that are ending at a rate of 100,000 households per month

[beckers2008] 01/12/2023 23:31

"Mortgage rates remain high for homeowners but Nationwide Building Society is choosing to reduce rates to help customers.
By PATRICK O'DONNELL

Nationwide Building Society has announced further reductions to mortgage rates is a boom for home owners

Specifically, the building society is slashing switcher rates by upwards of up to 0.31 percentage points.

This will be implemented across Nationwide’s two, three and five-year fixed rate products up to 95 percent LTV.

A 'rate switch' is when a mortgage holder decides to switch to a better rate with their existing lender.

Over the past year, homeowners have been forced to contend with soaring interest rates which have pushed mortgage repayments.

However, the central bank has signalled its series of base rate increases could be coming to an end very soon.

Despite this, mortgage holders are unlikely to benefit from this pause in rate rises, or pending rate reductions, for the foreseeable future.

However, Nationwide customers can still benefit from the building society offering support across its range of mortgage products.

The new rates from Nationwide include:

Two-year fixed rate at 60 percent LTV with a £999 fee is 4.82 percent (reduced by 0.17 percent)
Three-year fixed rate at 75 percent LTV with a £999 fee is 4.89 percent (reduced by 0.31 percent)
Five-year fixed rate at 95 percent LTV with a £999 fee is 5.30 percent(reduced by 0.30 percent)
Nationwide is also reducing additional borrowing rates by up to 0.31 percent" END.

BoE base rate at 6%?
Absolutely no chance.

[beckers2008] 01/12/2023 15:58

Commenting on the state of the market, Sam Mitchell, CEO of Purplebricks, said: "Banks are competing more aggressively on the rates they're offering to consumers following two consecutive interest rate holds, which is driving increased activity in the housing market during a time when we usually experience a seasonal slowdown.

"In November, Purplebricks has seen viewings and offers increase week on week, which is unheard of this time of year.

"It is our sense that buying and selling decisions that have been held off in the face of 14 interest rate rises in a row and through the cost of living crisis will be released to fuel accelerated activity in 2024.

"This will be aided by increased heat in the rental market that will continue to fuel first-time buyers' appetite to get on the property ladder."

[beckers2008] 01/12/2023 09:34

Nationwide reported that house prices rose for the third month in a row boosting hopes that the UK housing market might be stabilising.

The lender’s house price index showed prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month from October.

Sikhthetech,
Tell me, when is your 5+ year house price crash, 40% peak to trough going to materialise?
Lol, just lol!

You are not credible.

[beckers2008] 01/12/2023 09:07

Sikhthetech,

Certainly not trying to silence you.

Seems I was right, lol!

Beckers200822 Sep '23 - 15:01 - 3460 of 3462 Edit
0 0 0
Well, the MM's can't give this pos away, now 7.3p on the offer.

Seems the impairments, goodwill and WIP is having an effect.

No civil servant will want to be associated with a dud like TLY.
Expect more contracts to be torn up.
Quality and performance issues are a real concern.

[sikhthetech] 30/11/2023 20:33

Readers, ask yourselves why the Beckers, Fenners, Jugears etc are desperately attacking TLY, all day today, in order to silence me on housebuilder threads?.



If you look at the company fundamentals and listen to the presentation, you'll understand why the shorters are desperate. They running scared.


Company confirmed no intention to fundraise, director buying, new contracts worth £14m announced during H1, around 46-47% held by IIs, over £100m in revenues, still winning contracts.


£10m mcap


I think they can 10bag from current 5p.


Listen to the presentation, read the company/sector newsflow and form your own opinion.




Feel free to comment, ask questions:

[beckers2008] 30/11/2023 15:10

Sikhthetech,

As posted on the TLY BB.

The TLY CEO expected a lot of things for the interims, that turned out to be economic with the truth, evidently, only to disappoint with a collapse in the share price
Expects Cash generative in H2, lol!
If she had any idea of her WIP she would say WILL!
Along with Sikhthetech, she is not credible

[sikhthetech] 30/11/2023 14:22

winner

"Barclays has slashed its mortgage rates for the second time in four days"

The mortgage lenders are desperate for business.

Whenever any product looks like it might be cheaper in the future, a lot of potential buyers hold off to get the cheaper price.
The same is true of mortgages.

HBs then lose hundreds of millions of pounds from potential lost sales. Hence why they too are trying to encourage buyers.

[winner31] 30/11/2023 14:17

Barclays has slashed its mortgage rates for the second time in four days, with rates now coming under 5% for mortgages with a 10% deposit.
The banking giant announced a swathe of cuts to its products today, as a global bond buying spree has sent gilt yields, used to price mortgages, down.
The new rates include a 4.38% deal for those able to stump up the deposit for a 60% LTV mortgage. But even lower-deposit mortgages are much cheaper, as the five-year fix with a 90% LTV has been cut to 4.95%.
It comes just days after Barclays’ last round of cuts. While many of the changes today deal with products that were not changed on Monday, some have been cut further. In the space of a week, a two-year fix with a £0 product fee and a 90% LTV has fallen from 6.02% to 5.39%.

[kreature] 30/11/2023 14:10

Relist it at a lower price but add a duplicate house at a higher price to make the first one look look cheap ? I like the sales tactics.

[kreature] 30/11/2023 14:04

I guess the idea is to hoodwink potential home buyers so they don’t find out that paper frame houses were listed months earlier on rightmove, then removed and re listed to hide the fact that no-one bought them ? Tbf, looks less desperate that way