Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[gaffer73] 28/11/2022 11:29

It's only a mystery to you, you nugget

[scepticalinvestor] 28/11/2022 10:25

Lol grandad porsche you need to go back to sleepThat is wht they all said abt the 2008 crisis.Sorry if its a tad complex for you but in UK, demand will always outstrip supply

[porsche1945] 28/11/2022 09:41

How this is still above a tenner is a mystery, will see 5.50 by end of next year, inflation at insane levels in U.K. so rates need to go up a lot more, slow death for housing back to 2013 pricing, plus a nailed on hardcore recession, it was all due a cyclic blow up anyway but the Tory imbeciles and brexit scum have made it all a lot worse.

[encarter] 25/11/2022 16:27

Blue finish. Nice. Bodes well for next week. Next stop 1500.

[kop202] 24/11/2022 09:58

Shorting is the problem... Investors should determine the share price not spreadbettors and Hedge funds12 years of Tories and this is what you get...a casino economy......no planning .. far too lefty ..

[beckers2008] 24/11/2022 08:36

FACT - the 2 yr gilt yield has fallen further to 3.065% currently, now below the level before the mini-budget, as expected.
This will fall further as we move into December.

The Autumn statement has influenced gilt yields to fall further. As expected.
Mortgage rates will fall further and follow suit.
The lenders are making too much margin.
Andrew Bailey has warned them to adjust to the curve.

As I have been warning the trolls who were and are completely wrong as usual, BOE base rate at 6% - Absolutely no chance.

[winner31] 24/11/2022 08:14

But trolls never think they are , sometimes you gotta stand back and look at what your doing .

[kop202] 24/11/2022 07:26

That's the long term.....what about the here and now?Inflation not under control.......further hikes in interest rates?.....Im not a troll.....there's nothing malicious in what I type.....housing is essential and the gov will do something.. but what?

[beckers2008] 23/11/2022 14:56

FACT - the 10 yr gilt yield has fallen further to 3.014% currently, now way below the level before the mini-budget, as expected.
This will fall further as we move into December.

The Autumn statement has influenced gilt yields to fall further. As expected.
Mortgage rates will fall further and follow suit.

As I have been warning the trolls who were and are completely wrong as usual, BOE base rate at 6% - Absolutely no chance.

[sikhthetech] 23/11/2022 11:23

The fallout from the Autumn statement hasn't filtered through yet.
The fallout from the Help to Buy Scheme ending for new applications on 31st Oct hasn't filtered through yet. Some HBs were reporting 20% of their private reservations used the scheme. The equity loan scheme was upto 20%(40% in London) interest free loan for 5yrs, which encouraged potential homebuyers to buy new builds.


20% hike in energy cap for typical users come next April.
Mortgage interest rate rises.

Tax rises next year.
Council tax rises 5% next year.
Fuel duty up a huge 23%. Fuel prices are already sky high, that'll kill of any potential recovery next year..

CGT allowances reduced. The environment for Buy to Let investors has become less favourable, yet again.

New builds command a premium(can be 25% and even a lot more) so in some areas, I'd expect some recent new build buyers to already be in negative equity.

and it goes on.

A lot of pain to come..

Watch the demand fall and supply increase.

[fuji99] 23/11/2022 11:14

IMO there are two negative factors that will affect PSN share price next year: 1/ The withdrawal of the dividend will move institutions away from it and 2/ Recession coupled with higher mortgage interest rates will slowdown this sector as unemployment starts to rise. If companies are pushed to raise salaries to inflation levels, they have to reduce head counts by laying off workers to afford paying for it. So high interests rates coupled with higher unemployment are not positive for the housing sector. This is without adding any negative outcome by escalation from the Ukraine/Russia war which could trigger an additional global malaise for markets. Retail and housing will suffer for a while and there is no ground for shares to rise in these two sectors in particular until at least the BoE and FED STOP raising rates in anticipation of recovery. UK is also predicted to have a "negative growth" next year and looks more vulnerable than other advanced economies.

[luckymouse] 22/11/2022 23:39

No one knows where thats going - 1000 or 500 at a rough guess
There is a nice 2016 tech low around here - but strongly suspect the macro picture will materially deteriorate
Deep value is usually 75-80% off the peak - 80% off 3000 is 600 for instance
Ive no idea really - but you cant dbl folks energy bills, quadruple their mortgages & jack everything else by 25% & expect nothing to happen. This isn't America enjoying some of the highest wages, wage growth & wealth in the world where consumer resilience can be expected - its finely balanced here & the bath plug has just been pulled out

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[kop202] 22/11/2022 09:33

Applying logic to the stock market can be dangerous

[kop202] 22/11/2022 08:07

The slow down has not fed through to the bottom line of HB' s yetIt's priced in....but that won't stop people shorting when reduced divis/ profits are announced

[encarter] 21/11/2022 15:08

It's all priced in now. In fact it's been over done. I expect the share price to head back to 20 once they announce the divi.

[sikhthetech] 20/11/2022 20:23

The Autumn statement was a lot worse than I expected.
Therefore, I'm expecting further falls at HBs.


20% hike in energy cap for typical users come next April.

Mortgage interest rate rises.

Tax rises next year.
Council tax rises 5% next year.
Fuel duty up a huge 23%. Fuel prices are already sky high, that'll kill of any potential recovery next year..

CGT allowances reduced. The environment for Buy to Let investors has become less favourable, yet again.

New builds command a premium(can be 25% and even a lot more) so in some areas, I'd expect some recent new build buyers to already be in negative equity.

and it goes on.

A lot of pain to come..

Watch the demand fall and supply increase.

[beckers2008] 18/11/2022 15:31

Better than expected retail sales today.
Hunt has calmed the markets, energy usage is gonna be nowhere near as expected.
The good thing is people are cutting down, you don't need the thermostat constantly on 24c, lol!

See the early/mid 2020 chart, you have been warned.
If you are short, close.
If long, add.

[sikhthetech] 18/11/2022 15:01

20% hike in energy cap for typical users come next April.

Mortgage interest rate rises.

Tax rises next year.
Council tax rises 5% next year.
Fuel duty up a huge 23%. Fuel prices are already sky high, that'll kill of any potential recovery next year..

and it goes on.

A lot of pain to come..

Watch the demand fall and supply increase.



23% Fuel Duty Hike Starts March 2023 But Not Mentioned In U.K. Chancellor’s Autumn Statement

[encarter] 18/11/2022 11:03

Yep. It will still be around 10% at this price, worse case scenario.

[mwainw1973] 18/11/2022 09:42

Even if they half it it's still good. Good value here at this price IMO

[peter oconnor] 16/11/2022 17:25

They will slash it.

[lovegod2] 16/11/2022 17:16

wow how can they pay this huge dividend ?

[sunshine today] 16/11/2022 13:18

We have yet to see mass redundancies

By the summer the streets will be full of anger.

[sikhthetech] 16/11/2022 12:38

winner,

At 4% they in 2023, they will still be 4x higher than some deals last year.
2 yr fixed deals taken out at around 1% in 2021 and so due to end in 2023, will be paying 4% next year (if the forecasts are correct). It's still a huge 400% rise in interest for those who took out the 2 yr deals.

In the meantime, those potential homebuyers will wait until rates do come down. That's months of lost sales.

[winner31] 16/11/2022 12:27

Mortgage rate to drop below 4% during 2023