Pci-pal Share Discussion Threads

[adamb1978] 15/8/2024 19:07

"I’d have thought any approach would have been aired by now"

Not really:
- Approach July 1st-15th
- Couple weeks thrashing out indicative terms, incl price
- 1 week company preparing d/d materials
- 3-4 weeks d/d, draft offer announcement etc
- 1 week bringing elements together, seeking /signing irrevocables etc

Could be another 2-4 weeks and if I was the acquiror, I'd be telling them not to make any TUs (unless they felt they had to do so due to performance differing from expectations)

I don't see it as relating to the CFO departure given how high level the announcements are

[hastings] 15/8/2024 18:35

I'd have thought any approach would have been aired by now and as already stated, it shouldn't be a barrier to announcing a TU which is for a period now ended.So, could it merely be a delay due to the CFO moving on and the Interim person finishing things off.That said, I'd have thought they would have got everything lined up and if not, they could have at least given guidance as to when an update will be out!

[sahara5] 15/8/2024 17:49

What an unnecessary condition that would have been. When has this stock ever taken off...

[adamb1978] 15/8/2024 17:44

Hi Simon

I think it would have been a condition of the offerors approach - they wouldnt have wanted the share price to take off if the TU was well received.

From my perspective, given they have always issued a TU by now and have been clear with investors in those updates, and told a few of us that one would come in mid/late July, then clearly something changed in say first half of July. I'm struggling to think of what else it might be other than an approach

Adam

[simon gordon] 15/8/2024 17:11

It's not healthy to leave investors hanging on a string. Even if they are in talks I don't think they are precluded from issuing a trading update to the market.

Some people are buying this share on takeover speculation.

I have thought of PCIP as a hyper-professional operation who were truthful and correct about the patent dispute.

This period is testing my belief in the company, you don't leave a trading update so late with an Interim CFO.

[sahara5] 15/8/2024 16:38

And yes, the update in August last year was an anomaly as they were expecting judgement of the court case by end of July last year. They wanted to time the two to coincide, but the judgement ended up being delayed.

[sahara5] 15/8/2024 16:37

Looks to me as though some of the volume that moved in expecting a takeover has moved out today on the back of the Cavendish calendar. Always affects the share price more on the way out than the way in!

[wrighna1] 15/8/2024 15:56

Bought a few on the dip this afternoon, been watching this one for a while. Trading update delay is interesting and given the cordial and well researched nature of this discussion board makes it worth a position.

[adamb1978] 15/8/2024 15:55

They'd indicated to a few of us independently that they'd be issuing one mid/late July, in line with their usual reporting timing. Last year was the anomaly

[this_is_me] 15/8/2024 15:46

There was a trading update last year on 9th Aug.

[adamb1978] 15/8/2024 15:46

Not sure that the dip today changes my view on anything on the delay for the TU.

The business model and fixed cost base provides huge visibility over profitability so its not the sort of business which misses P&L targets - they could miss ARR targets, but not P&L. They'd have announced weeks ago had they been on course to miss as they'd know befor the quarter ends whether they were going to hit targets...and the Chair and CEO wouldnt have bought shares in April had they thought they were going to miss!!!

So I'm still expecting the TU appear on the same day as an offer for teh company is announced. Not that I want the company to be acquired mind you - much prefer them to continue compounding growth!

[simon gordon] 15/8/2024 15:34

Dr B,

I've just emailed Cavendish and that is not correct and they are removing it from their website.

[dr biotech] 15/8/2024 15:25

From a different board. Todays movement doesn't inspire a lot of confidenc


According to PCIP's own brokers, PCIP's TU is expected to be be published tomorrow and the full-year results on 7 November.

hxxps://www.finncap.com/tech-hub/calendar?company=2565

[adamb1978] 15/8/2024 14:45

Looks like some very mechanical selling this pm - not huge volumes, but round 5k and 10k blocks. Aggregate volumes not yet at the average 200 day volume either and only c.£30k traded...but share price 9% down

[adamb1978] 13/8/2024 18:44

Straight to prelims would be odd though given the track record of putting out a TU and a number of us being told separately that there would be one in mid/late July

[simon gordon] 12/8/2024 16:45

PCIP sponsoring this 8x8 tour date in Chicago, 18th September:



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In 2022 and 2021 the Prelims were published on the 6th of September, three weeks on Friday.

Maybe there will have been a trading update and news on the DWP retender by then.

Could it be that there will be no trading update and it'll just go straight to the Prelims?

[andre] 07/8/2024 12:28

Compared to usual there is a lot of buying. Usually one or two purchases or sales moves is up or down a few percent. Today a lot more buying but similar movement.

[simon gordon] 07/8/2024 11:05

The offer today is the tightest it's been for numerous trading days. Can't even get 10K, whereas you could get 30,000 to 50,000.

With the previous offer being available in scale it made me doubt a takeover offer.

[adamb1978] 07/8/2024 02:36

Completely. This is also a trading update - it will contain zero audited figures so the delay isnt accounting related, and as per Sahara, they'd need to announce it asap.

I'm still struggling to think of a reason for the delay other than them having received an approach. I always said that the legal action provided them with a shield as no funds would acquire a company with that sort of litigation in the background...however its completely logical that funds would have been tracking PCIP given their metrics and would have made an approach as soon as it was cleared up.

I can see the board doing a deal at 120p-140p, but really they should only be selling if someone offers more than PCIP can get to independenty in the medium term. In my view, thats say £35m ARR in FY27 and putting that on 5x gets you to 250p.

Unfortunately plc boards have a lousy record of getting the right price, so think 120-140 is where this will get done...

[sahara5] 05/8/2024 17:15

I'm no expert on the AIM rules for disclosures, but I do think if the delay were due to an accounting issue they would have had to inform the market.

[simon gordon] 05/8/2024 17:01

I would be more relaxed if there weren't an Interim CFO.

"In the UK, a statutory audit for a company that meets the audit threshold usually begins after the end of the financial year. For example, if a company's financial year ends on April 30, the audit can begin on May 1."

-Perry Accountants


The non-exec who chairs the audit committee, Carolyn Rand, joined March 22 and has been through the FY23 one.

"Carolyn brings excellent experience in financial and business leadership, governance and strategy planning across public and private enterprises. Carolyn was recently the CFO of AIM-quoted Bango plc and is currently a non-executive director and audit committee chair of IQGEO plc. Carolyn is also a Governor and audit committee member of the College of West Anglia. Her operating experience includes senior roles in large multinationals such as Smith & Nephew plc and Sepura plc, and executive roles within high-growth payments, technology and scientific businesses such as Bango, Zinwave and Isogenica. Carolyn is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants.

Carolyn will chair the audit committee."

-PCIP, March 2022.

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8x8 - 5/8/24

Congratulations to PCI Pal for winning Global Technology Ecosystem Partner of the year. PCI Pal has been a long standing partner for 8x8 and we value their support and commitment to the partnership. Looking forward to more continued success!

[sahara5] 05/8/2024 15:50

Posting because it's fun to speculate. The date of summer trading updates for the last several years.

9th August 2023 - delayed as they were expecting the patent case results by end of July (if memory serves)

Otherwise it's...

27th July 2022
21st July 2021
7th July 2020
23rd July 2019
11th July 2018

We are a bit into unchartered territory here. Perhaps why the stock held up decently well today.

[dr biotech] 04/8/2024 11:26

Part of the problem though it there are too many small cap listings (particularly on AIM) that are just a pumped up pile of rubbish. I think I read somewhere that about half lose 50% of their value within a couple of years. I can name several that are at 20% or have gone to zero.

My guess is that we will have some trading update this week, without any significant event. Just delayed because they were otherwise engaged, or some reason that is not explained.

[sahara5] 04/8/2024 10:35

I think she's right sadly. Great shame when you compare to markets like Sweden which have a very well functioning small cap market. Almost unbelievable that you see a family owned company like Paxman which is based in Huddersfield listed in Sweden!

[simon gordon] 04/8/2024 09:14

Katie Potts said recently she was giving up on the UK market because it doesn't have scale and there aren't enough deep-pocketed partners to grow small companies. She is turning most of her attention to America.

Katie Potts - 21/2/24:

There is no doubt that the UK public market is in a more fragile state than during any previous downturn in living memory. The question is whether this is cyclical or whether the damage is more structural. The UK public market is currently a fairly difficult environment for entrepreneurs to raise capital and I am saddened by how much management teams have been diluted by fund raisings at distressed levels. I believe that value in our portfolio will be realised through takeovers but that the costs incurred by listed companies in the UK, with the recent added burden of ESG and auditing requirements, has become too high to attract new companies. Similarly, the costs for managing small investments have increased considerably, with additional ESG and regulatory costs. Unfortunately, active investment management does not scale, and it is conspicuous that larger players have withdrawn and funds have shrunk. There are now too few players in the UK to have an efficient market, and too few co-investors. It is a pity because public markets have provided long-term risk capital for the benefit of the wider economy, but the skillset is disappearing rapidly. It seems the UK will inevitably shrink as a percentage of the Company’s assets.

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Bloomberg - 3/4/24:

An index of UK small-cap stocks will cease to exist by 2028 if the current level of takeover activity persists and the initial public offering market fails to rebound, London stockbroker Peel Hunt Ltd warned.

The number of companies listed on the FTSE Small Cap Index, excluding investment trusts, fell to 114 at the end of 2023 from 160 at the end of 2018, Peel Hunt Head of Research Charles Hall said in a note to clients.

“The pace of de-equitization is relentless,” Hall said.

Firms on the small-cap index had a combined market capitalization of just £29.4 billion ($37.0 billion) as of Tuesday’s close, barely half of its 2018 peak of about £57 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.