Pci-pal Share Discussion Threads

[nico115] 12/3/2024 08:09

So we received a 90p bid which we rejected and now dilution at 56p ?!! You couldn't make it up !!

[this_is_me] 12/3/2024 07:46

I didn't think that they would have and need to do a placing.

[adamb1978] 01/3/2024 15:37

re the Sycurio offer, it all seems a little too convenient:

- company knows that its tech is dated and sees a competitor with modern product and growing fast
- same company knows that claiming patent infringement will trash that other companies share price, irrespective of the validity of those claims
- company begins legal action >>> share price gets hammered >> launches offer
- conclusion of legal action shows that its spurious and with little basis

A cynic would say that it seems a little too convenient to not be pre-planned...

Adam

[loglorry1] 01/3/2024 15:09

Well yes but that's all if they execute on their plan which you are assuming is 100% going to happen.

Whereas we know today Sycurio was willing to pay 90p before Sycurio lost the case in the UK.

[adamb1978] 01/3/2024 12:42

Don't really agree with that loglorry.

The bull point is the consistent growth and the CEO spoke on the call yesterday about planning to keep growing at the 20%-30% rate. The 2-3 year bull case IMO is around 200p-250p per share on the basis of doing 7p-8p in the Jun-26 year.

Given they're at the point of going profitable now, the rate of earnings growth will be far higher than the turnover growth so if you look beyond FY26 you can imagine a share price considerably higher than that, particularly when you bear in mind the size of the US market which is only a small part of the business today.

[loglorry1] 01/3/2024 08:41

By far the biggest bull point for PCIP is that Sycurio bid 90p for them. This was reported in court documents and so has a very high degree of being true. Big equity holders were approached and turned it down.

It's in the huge potential or a zero bucket for me. They spend a lot of money to sell very little so far but hopefully that will all change soon. They seem to have enough decent sized channel partners now they just need to stuff them.

[adamb1978] 29/2/2024 20:59

Also need to remember that Sycurio need to win 2 battles in order for it to hit PCIP:

1) prove that the patents shouldnt be invalidated
2) prove that PCIP infringe them

Both being decisions which a previous judge went against.

So say they have a 20% chance of winning each individually; that means they have a 4% chance of winning both.

[alun rm] 29/2/2024 13:32

The appeal is set for late May. A 6 hour hearing, with no new evidence to be heard, if I understand the process. If the previous judgement is upheld (which seems likely given the strength of the original judges comments), then investors are likely to become more interested in the underlying story. Fingers crossed the judgement comes quickly.

[nickelmer] 27/2/2024 10:14

Agreed, the court nonsense is causing a real halt to anything meaningful from larger investors

[adamb1978] 27/2/2024 10:11

Still think the shares are, in effect, suspended at the moment. Large numbers of investors, both insti and private, won't buy in with the court nonsense ongoing.

Good thing is that PCIP continues to knock the ball out of the park (25% yoy growth) so when the quasi-suspension is lifted, there should be lots of upside

[nickelmer] 27/2/2024 09:21

see 6 Feb post imho

[adamb1978] 27/2/2024 08:28

Looking at the segmental data too, it looks like US will turn profitable in the current half year period too

[adamb1978] 27/2/2024 08:13

ACV 25% ahead yoy is the main thing from these figures IMO. Continue that for the rest of the year and new ACV will be over £5m.

They also have the product launches and Zoom partnership kicking in now so could be considerably over that

[this_is_me] 27/2/2024 08:00

It looks like if it hadn't been for the patent case we would have been cashflow positive.

[zipstuck] 27/2/2024 07:20

Added £0.6m in ARR in first two months of second half. Not Bad.

[adamb1978] 06/2/2024 21:47

Not sure about that at all Nickelmer. PCIP's price never got to crazy levels for a SaaS business and today is still at c.2x ARR.

Given PCIP's churn is so low (3%) then all the ARR wins are incremental to the top-line and with mainly re-selling via partners they dont need to scale sales & marketing costs like crazy.

They just need to get the court stuff out of the way - there's enough investors which won't look at PCIP because of that, and therefore the price risks drifting. Look what happened after the UK win - the share price shot up...only to come off again once the appeal was announced

[nickelmer] 06/2/2024 19:04

I think the problem for PCIPAL is now the same as it was some time ago for its competitor Eckoh, ECK's share price rose to ridiculous levels based on its future profit potential, and once it started announcing actual profits the market could see the potential had not been realised at that stage and the price fell substantially. PCIPAL are at the future profit potential stage and as soon as they reveal actual profits, if they are not what was expected, the price will fall to a true value, hence I suspect in part the market's reaction to today's announcement

[adamb1978] 06/2/2024 09:31

Just a sign of current markets, plus the legal case meaning that some buyers are put off and the share price just meanders on low volume.

Once the appeal is out of the way I think we'll see more life again

[this_is_me] 06/2/2024 09:26

Disappointing reaction to a very positive update.

[adamb1978] 06/2/2024 08:35

Court cases always are.

As above, I dont think its a disaster. With small caps valuations where they are, PCIP would be a sitting duck without this.

PCIP should be nicely profitable this time next year, and the court shenanigans doesnt seem to be stopping them winning new customers!

[checkers2] 06/2/2024 08:33

Patent Case Update

"Sycurio is appealing the verdicts. The US litigation continues with the trial now scheduled for February 2025"

February 2025 - is that a typo? Otherwise it is becoming very drawn out...

[adamb1978] 06/2/2024 08:13

Yes, good statement, delivering on promises as they always do.

Should break-even at the bottom line in the current 6 month period too.

The patent case in the US moving out to Feb 2025 I dont see as a disaster I think PCIP would be vulnerable to offers to acquire them without the patent stuff, however that being in the background prevents an offer from private equity until H1 next year, by which time PCIP should be nicely profitable which would push the price up.

The price here should be substantially higher in 12-24 months

[this_is_me] 06/2/2024 07:19

Key milestone achieved: "... first reported period of positive EBITDA since its re-launch as PCI Pal in 2016"

[andre] 30/1/2024 15:09

I agree. And then to add if you are confident. They just saved you a few percent.

[adamb1978] 30/1/2024 13:17

See post 974 re rationale