Pci-pal Share Discussion Threads

[simon gordon] 15/6/2024 10:26

Morning Adam,

Could £50m t/o equate to £23m PBT, taxed at 25% = £17m PAT, divided by 72m shares = 23.6p EPS.

450p divided by 23.6p = 19x p/e.

18p would equate to £13m PAT.

Can't imagine they'd go for a US listing, they're a toddler, they'd be lost. In the UK they can become a market darling, bit like IQG. Interestingly, the new PCIP NED is on the IQG board, they've just been bought by KKR.

[adamb1978] 15/6/2024 10:16

Hi Simon

Very good spot with those two roles. Does seem like the US side is humming.

£50m in 2029 would be about 22% turnover CAGR from 2023, which is entirely feasible, probably conservative if the US growth continues. I reckon that would lead to 18p EPS so 25x PE gets 450p. At that scale they'll be generating very good margins so 25x PE is very realistic. 450p and £50m also implies around 6x EV/ARR which looks fine.

Will be interesting to see whether they look at a US listing at some point. Probably want the US court case dealt with first.

Adam

[simon gordon] 14/6/2024 21:01

Hey Adam,

Today they published a vacancy for a Head of Marketing US based. There's also an opening for a Director of Product Marketing US based.

It certainly would be cool if they could rock some 30% years.

If they can hit £50m in 2029 the share might be more toward 450p. Does that compute?

[adamb1978] 14/6/2024 20:33

Hi Simon

I'd be disappointed with 20% growth, particularly if the US momentum continues as it seems to be.

Valuation also depends on whether you think the market values them on a PE or EV/ARR basis. The small placing a couple months ago was meant to fund more growth (ie headcount) in the US. That will obviously depress earnings a bit but ensure more future growth.

Anyway, I have something like 6p EPS in Fy26 and 10p in FY27, so 200p share price in a couple years? The growth and margin combination should lead to a decent multiple

Adam

[simon gordon] 14/6/2024 18:08

Hi Adam,

Hopefully, a DWP win and or a bullish trading update in July can get the share through 65p.

Baseline 20% topline growth for the next five years:

2025 - 22.8m
2026 - 27.3m
2027 - 32.8m
2028 - 39.3m
2029 - 47.2m


If you chuck in one 30% year it gets past £50m.

What valuations can you envisage for the share based on the above?

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Good piece on AI in the Contact Centre:

No Jitter - 14/6/24

Generative AI: Not the Droids You Are Looking For

Generative AI is a new tool and it’s still early. So far, it hasn’t done much, and we need to adjust our expectations that it might indeed be a while until it does.

[adamb1978] 13/6/2024 23:50

Simon
I'd be more worried if there wasnt any new but with the court case cleared and their channel partners blowing the doors off, I think risk here is low...

Adam

[simon gordon] 13/6/2024 17:53

Wonder if William Catchpole is continuing to sell down. Sold 200,000 shares in March, 24. Now he's not notifiable, he could be an overhang. Holds 2,000,0000 - 2.79%. He had added 400,000 last September before the trial.

Has he died and his estate selling down?

Defo looks like stale bulls at c.65p, three times it's hit it and fallen back in 24.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[adamb1978] 12/6/2024 21:29

Hi Simon

re the US yes. Somewhat simplistic but taking your 15x market size in the US vs the UK, if you take PCIP's UK revenue and multiple it by even half of that 15x, the impact on the P&L would be nuts. Shame that they'd likely be acquired by then.

re the DWP tender, now that the appeal has been dismissed, you'd hope it would be straight forward. Changing supplier involves additional costs for the DWP to install the new system (probably tens of thousands), as well as training all its people on the new system etc. If the PCIP product is working well, you'd hope it would be a formality

Adam

[simon gordon] 12/6/2024 18:19

Hi Adam,

ECK state on their FY 24 slide-deck presentation that the US market is 15x the UK.

PCIP collected 250 new clients in FY 24 (850 total). ECK have a total of 230 clients. Once PCIP starts getting stuck into the Enterprise space through the likes of Genesys and Zoom the top line could power on - like you say for years.

The next big hurdle is the DWP tender. Worth £2m a year going forward, historically c.£1.35m per annum to PCIP. Tender news could be any day now. Lose that and down we go, win it and the share will get a strong bump.


================

simon gordon - 05 Jun 2024

Based on the 2023 Prelims the company spent £2m on the UK case. Has now got back £1.3m and might try to claim another £0.7m.

The US case will in total cost around £2m.

At the moment they are down £2.7m (UK £0.7m & US £2m).

Sycurio is probably down £5.3m.

=====>

Watching the CFO again on the February 2024 Investor Meet webinar he mentioned the total legal bill will be £4.5m to £4.7m.

Maybe the UK case cost £2.3m and they'll be looking to try and get back another £1m.

US case costs £2.3m.

As it stands, they are currently down c.£3.3m (UK £1m & US £2.3m).

Sycurio is probably down £5.9m.

[adamb1978] 12/6/2024 17:48

Thanks Simon. Thats good news re Genesys. The US is a huge opportunity for PCIP and could sustain top-line growth for several years

[simon gordon] 12/6/2024 11:00

Genesys, a top five channel partner for PCIP, released their Q1 results yesterday:

SAN FRANCISCO–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Genesys®, a global cloud leader in AI-powered experience orchestration, today reported the results for the first quarter of its fiscal year 2025 (Feb. 1 – April 30, 2024). On the heels of a company record-setting fiscal year 2024, the Genesys Cloud™ platform continued its strong momentum, exceeding $1.5 billion annual recurring revenuei for the first quarter, growing more than 40% year-over-year. Notably, Genesys Cloud new bookings from standalone AI products were up over 2X year-over-year in the first quarter, including its largest ever seven-figure AI annual contract value (ACV) win as part of a large customer experience (CX) transformation with a community service and wellbeing organization.

...The average number of unique agents for each of the top 50 Genesys Cloud customers increased to nearly 10,500, a more than 20% increase year-over-year...



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Cavendish - 9/11/23:

Partner relationships have developed from initial trials to expansive channel opportunities, with PCI Pal consistently navigating upwards through partner tier structures, as the platform’s solutions gain the partner’s trust and focus. Through investing to achieve this status, PCI Pal is now excellently positioned to be upsold into the existing customer base of major partners, such as one partner where PCI Pal is currently used in only 2 of their top 50 deployments, which average c10k seats, and would each add over $1m of revenue to PCIP.

[simon gordon] 11/6/2024 12:41

Tech Market View - 11/6/24:

Eckoh enjoys life Stateside

Full year results from UK-based call centre payments specialist Eckoh, have revenue dipping -4% to £37.2m (FY23 £38.8m) as total ARR ticked up 1% to £30.8m (FY23 £30.4m). Group profitability improved with both adjusted EBITDA and adjusted operating profits increasing by 8% to £10.2m and £8.3m, respectively. Whilst Eckoh’s pivot to the cloud (see Eckoh sees a positive future in the cloud and work backwards) has continued to temper revenue growth in the short term, it is seeing positive improvements in recurring revenue and operating margins - increasing by 250 bp to 22.4% (FY23 19.9%).

The big plus for the Hemel Hempstead-headquarterd business is the progress it has been making in North America (48% of Group revenue and increasing) with a record level of new contracted business in the region, up 44% YoY to $16.8m, benefiting from the creation of a single commercial team there (see Cloud pivot helps Eckoh prosper in North America). This helped contribute to significant improvements in both total contracted business (up 52% to £52.6m) and new contracted business (up 29% to £18.7m). We caught up this morning with CEO Nik Philpot who explained “The first half of the year was all about excellent contract renewals, but the second half was all about new business wins, and we have built a strong sales pipeline of exciting new business opportunities, supported by the impact that the new PCI standard is having as well as the significant risk of operating work from home agents without security measures.” The US is also less mature from a security and compliance perspective than Europe providing significant opportunities with generally larger operators.

Looking forward, Eckoh expects to see growth in FY25 as existing accounts continue to expand. AI and bots in the contact centre, as well as hybrid working and associated security concerns, should help the business deliver on this. Management points to a positive start to the year with £8m+ of total contracted business signed year to date.

[simon gordon] 11/6/2024 12:29

Eckoh's FY is out today, the Presentation is worth a skeg:



------

Interesting discussion with Chris Crosby a CX investor, he reckons Zoom is the only game in town, a huge fan:

CX Today - 7/6/24

The Evolution of CCaaS Platforms and What to Look for in a Provider

[citys2874] 06/6/2024 14:10

what his username on here?

[simon gordon] 05/6/2024 13:55

Citys2874,

Just to let you know your actions are driving Victor Value off the LSE board after posting his posts on ADVFN this morning. He's asked for the account to be closed as he doesn't want to be caught up in your ramping.

Why don't you apologise to him and tell him you will delete his posts on here?

[adamb1978] 05/6/2024 12:45

Hi Citys

Regarding that filing, can you explain why you think that it could imply that a truce has been agreed?

CHatGPT tells me that in the context of a U.S. court case, an "Order on Motion for Leave to Appear Pro Hac Vice" refers to a court order granting permission to an out-of-state attorney to participate in a particular case.

[citys2874] 05/6/2024 11:52

In the top 75 gainers on the leaderboard moving up nicely

[citys2874] 05/6/2024 11:43

in the top 90 gainers on the leaderboard risers now

[citys2874] 05/6/2024 11:37

buys coming in and see a major bounce up coming

[citys2874] 05/6/2024 11:26

you can buy it today nice filing in the US

[citys2874] 05/6/2024 11:26

First filling since Jan 19th

102

Jun 4, 2024

Main Doc­ument

Appear Pro Hac Vice - one motion per atty

hxxps://www.courtlistener.com/docket/60385210/sycurio-limited-v-pci-pal-us-inc/#entry-102

-----------------------

You will be able to buy it tomorrow

From here

hxxps://www.pacermonitor.com/case/41847299/Semafone_Limited

[citys2874] 05/6/2024 08:54

yep should see a rise over the next few weeks in the run up to trading update too

[adamb1978] 05/6/2024 08:16

Hi Simon

Thanks for the numbers. Personally I'm not too bothered by the cash spend as now that they're profitable the balance sheet doesnt make too much difference. Its nice for the story to have it back though.

Looking forward to a trading update in the next few weeks.

Adam