Paragon Banking Share Discussion Threads

[stun12] 21/9/2020 13:11

Quite the precipitous fall today. Not really sure why but did dip my toe in the water at 311. Be careful out there, it's a jungle.

[future financier] 30/7/2020 11:23

stun - My point is that Paragon always used to be the most tightly managed btl lender - now you are having to compare with the worst in order to say that it is doing "not too bad". To my mind that is losing the plot!

[stun12] 30/7/2020 10:50

The Fleet / Landbay / Topaz one (Canada Square 2020-2) did use a 31st May cut-off pool, but that probably doesn't make a lot of difference. A Pepper UK deal had 1/3 on payment holiday, Belmont Green (Tower Bridge)28.5%, Paratus AMC 11.1%, Kensington 21.1%. Just looking at the monthly figures for PM-25, it does look like it got a bit out of hand early on and is gradually recovering. Figs for: April 22.68% May 24.35% June 19.43%

[future financier] 30/7/2020 10:29

Really stun??? - when Lendinvest have recently posted a securitisation with 4.2% and an assorted bundle from Fleet/Landbay/Topaz had 4.3%? I would call that performance with MPH pretty hopeless!

[stun12] 29/7/2020 15:24

Found an investor report for PM-25 from mid-June. Payment holidays for 19.4% of the pool, >90 days arrears for just 2 loans and Receiver of Rent for 1 loan. Not too bad at all.

[future financier] 29/7/2020 14:16

Paragon has lost the plot (allegedly) on controlling the mortgage payment holidays - heads should roll as it wouldn't have happened under John Heron. But I am sure that they will recover the situation without significant loss - so probably a bargain right now.

[stun12] 29/7/2020 13:56

Thanks, seems a fair explanation. Of course, it should apply to the whole stock market, but here we are hovering around the 6100 level on the FTSE. I had a look on the Paragon investor website to take a look at reported arrears for the last few securitisations, but the data was at at the end of April for the relevant transactions. New data should be out next week for the quarter ending 31st July.

[the drewster] 29/7/2020 13:11

I think the worry is with the post covid redundancy numbers likely to be significant, arrears (for homeowners and landlords) will go through the roof and the impct on all lenders could be significant. Think zero dividend already priced in too.

[stun12] 29/7/2020 12:48

Is anyone still following this one? Recent fall seems unjustified as far as I can see. I've bought a bit but I'm reluctant to go in balls deep until I can work out why it's down here...

[the drewster] 10/3/2020 08:15

Waiting for at least an element of calm to return, at which point I'll be bagging hods of these.

[the drewster] 09/3/2020 16:53

Sub 4 .... interesting again

[isambardkb] 11/1/2020 12:06

Try telling that to Mrs Plevin and Mrs Doran. Both landmark PPI cases were against paragon.

[yieldsearch] 09/1/2020 20:03

Large volume recently?

[phillis] 06/11/2019 09:04

Another broker? Corporate activity looming?

[phillis] 05/11/2019 16:18

inching forward no PPI with this bank!

[the drewster] 15/10/2019 09:12

Not abnormally high. e.g. from Investopedia: "Bank of America's D/E ratio for the three months ending March 31, 2019, was 0.96. In March 2009, during the financial crisis, the ratio reached 2.65, according to Macrotrends." However, be aware that the securitisation model they use will take debt off balance sheet and reduce gearing.

[arja] 15/10/2019 08:54

high gearing at about 90% I notice but is that fairly normal in this type of business ?

[arja] 15/10/2019 08:51

nice looking chart and I must check out the fundamentals like prospective p/e etc !

[the drewster] 13/9/2019 14:36

Very happy FF. Top slicing, leaving profit to ride for free.

[future financier] 08/8/2019 09:25

I agree TD - if there is a financial implosion PAG is well protected against the problems it had last time and its quality of business remains exemplary so divi should be sustainable

[the drewster] 08/8/2019 08:13

Over 5% yield if 21p divi is held, and 40% upside to get to the 550 highs of last summer. These are starting to look quite interesting to me at this level and below.

[phillis] 23/7/2019 11:29

healthy dividend growth on the cards

[davr0s] 20/6/2019 18:53

Downgrade by some broker. I tend to ignore them so don't see it as a major negative as they have poor track record of predicting future share price

[aclark9201] 20/6/2019 13:13

Anyone got the news on why this has fallen today?