Paragon Banking Share Discussion Threads

[the drewster] 18/1/2016 16:39

Support held ... just, and for now.

[the drewster] 18/1/2016 12:12

300 is significant. A break and hold below might suggest 200 is possible, but I'm betting against that happening, albeit with a tight stop loss.

[the drewster] 18/1/2016 08:30

Trading update a week on Wednesday (27th Jan) might give a little short term direction.

[johnv] 17/1/2016 23:45

Good luck to you Drewster if your buying.

[pugugly] 17/1/2016 18:19

Remember - It is not just stamp duty - Mortgage tax relief is being reduced to standard rate and allowable expense will be restricted to what is spent - Also CGT payable in 90 days



above link may have been pasted before but as a reminder - Another possible restraint is that (although not clear - or I have not spotted) is that the emigrate and sell with no CGT payable loophole (provided no return within 5 complete tax years) seems to have been closed or is being closed So as mentioned above far less desireable as an investment and if any falls in property values could well be a wasting rather than a growth investment (imo)

Hence it is possible times may be harder for Paragon (imo)

[the drewster] 17/1/2016 15:50

It will not collapse, it will be less profitable for newer landlords in particular, but there's a massive market which will provide for some solid, if potentially less spectacular returns, but at 300, for me, they are a good solid buy and hold.

[johnv] 17/1/2016 12:56

Great results from PAG but the market is looking 6 months ahead, by then the BTL market would have stalled or collapsed.

[the drewster] 15/1/2016 14:25

thought 300 was possible... have thrown my hat into the ring and am a buyer at these levels.

[the drewster] 15/1/2016 08:24

OK, time to dust off the fishing rod for a little bottom fishing ... not ready to cast just yet, but walking to the riverbank.

[aishah] 12/1/2016 11:07

Jefferies reiterate BUY and 536p target

[aishah] 11/1/2016 11:59

This is what TMI said in last issue:
Paragon (364p)
Specialist BTL lender Paragon has also suffered share price turbulence but results were strong. In Paragon Mortgages, operating profit rose 17% to £94m while Idem Capital, which provides unsecured loans, increased profit 3% to £49.3m. If anything this performance masks even stronger trends with new BTL lending up 102% to £1,326m and the BTL pipeline up 72% to £713m.
One other positive for future growth is that its funding “warehouseR21; capacity has been increased from £750m to £950m, while recently established Paragon Bank has attracted deposits of £708m (up from just £388m in Q3 ’15), a cheap way of funding further lending.
Broker, Jefferies notes that while the BTL lending market is expected to fall from an annualized £37bn to £30bn (out of £209bn total UK lending) c. 52% of BTL gross mortgages is remortgage activity and therefore not affected by the stamp duty changes.
Jefferies forecasts Paragon new BTL lending of £1.4bn in FY’16, rising to £1.6bn by FY’18 but even that would imply market share of only 5.8% compared with pre-crisis level of 9%, so we think there’s still upside to come.
New forecasts are for eps to rise from 34.9p to 40p, 44.6p and 49.1p between FY’16-FY’;18. Jefferies’ price target is 536p while it notes a further £50m share buyback is targeted for the next 12 months. Buy.

[future financier] 11/1/2016 09:08

PAG is paying 11p in dividends - and I can't see any threats on the horizon to that. Ok - growth prospects are somewhat tarnished compared with what they were, but the divi alone has to be worth £3.50.

[the drewster] 08/1/2016 20:02

He did have £1m freebies too though. 300 entry target now.

[future financier] 08/1/2016 17:17

If Terrington was happy to pay 362 in middle of last month then 332 must be a bargain!

[the drewster] 08/1/2016 15:39

lower highs and lower lows suggests more pain just yet.

[aishah] 08/1/2016 12:07

Been adding here recently. Low P/E and PEG. £50m buyback in progress. Low price/book compared to other challengers. dyor

[the drewster] 16/12/2015 10:02

Jury is out. Overshoots, upwards and downwards, are inevitable, which to me means they are likely to go lower.
You pays your money ...

[davebowler] 16/12/2015 09:56

Has anyone compared ARW to this -its IDEM subsidiary seems to operate in the same market?

[suetballs] 15/12/2015 21:59

Carney is worried about buy to let so there are going to be some more headwinds. Hopefully not forcing the share price down to £3.
Suet

[the drewster] 15/12/2015 13:31

... but there-in lies the problem, the press over egging the fears. I suspect this will go lower, and now target 300 as an entry point.

[inki] 15/12/2015 11:55

This is now overdone.Buy to let will not die, after the political dust is moved aside. There are still few stable investment opportunities that compare long term with property ownership. Interest rate fears are also hyped by press comment.

[mallorca 9] 26/11/2015 13:04

I am a buy to let investor.
I am in the process of buying/ adding to my property portfolio.
I have negotiated a reduction in the asking price to compensate me for the stamp duty increase. I'm sure that other buy to let landlords will simply do the same.

[inki] 26/11/2015 08:10

What is not being featured in the current pricing, is additional margins as interest rates start to rise.