Paragon Banking Share Discussion Threads

[future financier] 08/6/2023 16:51

TD - surely you remember the last financial crisis - and the one before - did PAG suffer any bad debts? OK - they did screw up in their treasury management and had to do that horribly discounted rights issue (but that turned out to be the most amazing opportunity for investors) - you can be sure they won't screw up that way again. Besides which with their retail funding they have precious little exposure to the whims of the capital markets.

[the drewster] 07/6/2023 07:20

The increased share buyback ought to keep the price in the 550 to 650 range until August, but I fear the financial markets, particularly the banking and financial services sectors, will get hammered if defaults start rising as further rate rises and increases in cost of living take their toll. I expect Mrs Drewster and I might reduce our core position if the signs suggest that scenario becomes inevitable.

[makinbuks] 06/6/2023 15:21

In round terms, £6 before the mini budget knocked it back to £4, then back to £6 in 3 months only to be knocked back by the SVB crisis to £5. Up nearly 10% today but surely will go higher than £6 as the prospects are absorbed. The business has only got stronger through these two events.

An as Phillis alludes to the quality of the business they are doing just stands out

[phillis] 06/6/2023 13:29

Cream rises

[makinbuks] 06/6/2023 11:13

Great update

As an accountant I wonder if the ASB or whoever looks at these things these days will consider the wild fluctuations in statutory profit an undesirable effect of mark to market for a business that holds genuine hedges

[petewy] 06/6/2023 09:00

Good report Divi Up

• Underlying profit increased 22.2% to £128.9 million (2022 H1: £105.5 million)*
• Underlying EPS increased 28.0% to 42.5 pence (2022 H1: 33.2 pence)*
• Statutory profit before tax down 67.7% at £46.4 million (2022 H1: £143.6 million) reflecting
the unwinding of £82.5 million of the £191.9 million of fair value gains recognised in 2022, with statutory EPS decreased 63.1% to 16.4 pence (2022 H1: 44.4 pence)
• Continued NIM enhancement to 2.95% (2022 H1: 2.57%). Guidance increased to circa 3.00% for full year
• Cost:income ratio reduced to 38.1% (2022 H1: 41.2%)
• Capital base remains strong – CET1 15.6% (31 March 2022: 15.4%)
• Underlying RoTE 18.7% (2022 H1: 15.5%)*
• Interim dividend up 17.0% at 11.0 pence (2022 H1: 9.4 pence)
• Additional £50.0 million share buy-back announced for H

[stun12] 11/4/2023 18:13

Interesting dip. Back to the bottom of the recent buying range. Anyone have ideas why? No position currently.

[edmundss] 20/2/2023 19:23

PAG is really struggling with 600p at the moment. Looks like considerable resistance?

[phillis] 01/2/2023 15:28

no
all time high?
before XD tomorrow

[joey9090] 30/1/2023 15:24

Anyone ever have issues selling a large amount of shares for PAG in one lot? About 11K shares?

[thamestrader] 27/1/2023 10:10

OSB also looking good

[thamestrader] 27/1/2023 09:58

I had been thinking of banking some profits at this level, but I think I'll hold on. Run your winners and all that.

[makinbuks] 27/1/2023 08:52

Positive reaction to what I thought was a slightly mixed announcement this morning

[phillis] 26/1/2023 10:02

2nd Feb

Sorry for the mislead

[thamestrader] 26/1/2023 09:16

I have 3feb in my calendar (but that's a Friday, so can't be. - Ed.)(or maybe that's 'record date')

[phillis] 25/1/2023 12:56

xd tomorrow?

[the drewster] 15/1/2023 12:14

I see the directors were gifted another batch of nil-paids as part of their deferred bonuses.

[the drewster] 13/1/2023 08:58

If it drops below 525 I think it could get 'proper ugly' which might well take it down into buying territory. Just happy to watch for now.

[thamestrader] 13/1/2023 08:18

Hmmm. Not ex-div, no news....
Does somebody know something we don't?

[the drewster] 28/12/2022 17:00

Excellent call phillis, I think the financial sector will be very volatile for the coming 6 months.

I think ultimately we are going to end up a good bit south of the current SP, but I think it can go higher before everything goes pete-tong. I certainly wouldn't be overly enthusiastic to buy at this level.

[phillis] 28/12/2022 10:42

sold all my LLOyds at 40p and invested all in PAG at 400p

[the drewster] 07/12/2022 07:55

I hold no trading position here at the moment. I could see them at £7 off the back of that set of results, and equally at £3.50 if there's any news that arrears levels in the industry are what they might become. I'm happy to watch from here, at least for now. No advice intended, and please don't trade off the back of anything I might say.