Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[johnswan193] 18/12/2021 14:21

Rabito I think you are getting a bit too hung up on the 14% post. Firstly it was in response to Scots still unsubstantiated claim that there were 8 separate targets (any of which would lead to an increase in market cap of >$1.2bn). Secondly it was a reverse engineered number based on an alternative interpretation of what Bob said, and given he declined to comment on COS of individual targets.

Even my conservative risked valuation based on only the top two targets does not use 14%. It’s making you seem bitter, time to move on from it.

[scot126] 18/12/2021 14:12

Dear All - just a point of clarification really, not a correction per se.

Farallon used the pre-raise denominator to calculate their % position in the TR-1 published on 16/12/21. They used 696m rather than the 744m post-raise denominator of total shares on issue. You can see why it happened that way because they informed the company *prior* to the fundraise settlement date/new shares issued date. So Farallon's accurate % ownership today is 8.96%, not 9.58%.

“Under 9%” sounds even better than “under 10%”, eh?!

Forgive me, I cannot remember the poster who calculated whether CHONS had sold any shares since the TR-1 published on 2/12/21. Looks to me that they sold 1,837,071 shares between 29/11/21 and 7/12/21. I have no confirmation whether it was this last small tranche of selling volume which finally satisfied the intra-party debt obligation between Farallon and GBPO. However contractual matters appear to have fully crystallised following the events of 7/12/21.

Logic suggests Farallon sold some stock in the 60s and low 70s in the time between 29/11/21-7/12/21, providing further evidence that their motivation is not the same as most/all other sizeable equity owners? It would also suggest to me that Farallon were not inside at all or were not inside for an extended period of time during the pre-raise meetings/briefings. IMO it also suggests their PANR shareholding is not seen as a long term strategic holding for Farallon. Personally, I'm more than comfy with that.

IMO the key risk associated with Farallon's 8.96% holding now is that a major oil corporate swipes it up in a oner, hoping to gain a "cheap seat" at the table when the future ownership of the asset is decided. Personally I'd be waaaayyyy more comfortable with Farallon's 66m shares being sold to regular institutions, even better if they're US institutions. That said, if Shell was to come in and buy the line it would, naturally, have an immediately positive effect! It's my intention, at time of writing, to wait until the BoD advises me to sell (via a recommended corporate or asset sale) so I'd prefer a level playing field if/when the supermajors approach PANR in a year or two!! That's the ideal situation for me anyway, fwiw.

If, therefore, we are notified of further Farallon selling between now and the data starting to arrive from Alaska in late Jan/early Feb '22 then a) for those who assess the winter operations' risk/return is in shareholders' favour, any supply of "cheap" stock from Farallon is a welcome opportunity and b) it's to be embraced if it means a potential quasi-strategic holding is reduced to a meaningless amount.

It's noticeable how infrequently the shorters/trolls now "warn" PANR shareholders that "Farallon simply *must* know more than the rest of you, how else do you explain their continuous selling throughout 2021?" Nope, that particular conspiracy theory has been well and truly blown out the water. Folk would do well to remember this forum and others have been peppered with conspiracy theories throughout 2021. I am happy to repeat my observation that post the merger with GB in January '19, PANR is a very different animal.

Great stuff.

[alaric7] 18/12/2021 13:12

great posts this morning, rabito and your thinking is always most appreciated by me and others in my circle. thanks again

[rabito79] 18/12/2021 12:51

HD I am not doubting his maths ability more his contention that Bob was meaning there was total commercial Chance of Success of 60-70%.

[hiddendepths] 18/12/2021 12:36

Rabito - JohnSwan's maths is correct. The calculation is 0.8 chance of failure for one zone, 0.8^5 for five zones all failing. A lot of people don't know how to do this - not suggesting you are among them. I'm not making any comment on the probabilities themselves either!

"Note if using 5 targets, the individual COS only needs to be 20% to result in a 67% probability of at least one succeeding."

[rabito79] 18/12/2021 11:23

NGMS, happy to end any perceived hostilities but I will certainly continue to debate anything I believe to be overly negative.In my opinion the thought that each zone has a 14% COS is for the birds, particularly if this was Bob Rosenthal in 'sales mode' as Johnswan suggests. There has been 5 penetrations into the SMD with core samples taken in a least 2 of them, but most likely them all. Other zones have a minimum of 2 penetrations again with core taken throughout.I am in the camp that if PANR think they have contingent resources and this claim has passed the NOMAD then the geological COS is indeed ~100%. Therefore it's all on the flow test to prove commerciality and we already have had a successful flow test at Alkaid which formed the basis of LKA's assessment and NPV calculations.Likewise I don't believe the SOA would award production units if the COS was so low in the individual reservoirs. Or indeed, eSeis would have bought in and AHS be talking of a 'world class petroleum system' with predominately 'good reservoir rocks' an area of the BFF having 'very good reservoir qualities' despite being significantly down dip from the best reservoir. All these points seem to be completely missed from Johnswan's and your perception of derisking which I find somewhat bizarre.I accept the nature of oil exploration means that Pantheon, eSeis, LKA, AHS and SOA may all be wrong in their judgements but I don't pretend to know enough to be in a position to ignore them or supersede their opinions.

[bigwavedave] 18/12/2021 10:38

Pantheon has tweeted this morning about the ice road (with pics). Makes a refreshing change from oil price news

[ngms27] 18/12/2021 09:13

I've had a Pm telling me that scot126 is still flogging a dead horse.

Jonny Rotten

[chris0805] 17/12/2021 21:10

Easy to guess when it's that cold.. -40F = -40C easy benchmark to estimate from.

[chris0805] 17/12/2021 20:29

I see it as grand news :-)

[fordtin] 17/12/2021 19:09

Which site did the -44°F come from? Google showing -9.4°F at Deadhorse, Prudhoe Bay, AK, USA.

[elhank] 17/12/2021 18:59

Sorry if this has already been covered but what do people make of the tr1 this morning.

[hpotter] 17/12/2021 18:36

(-44°F − 32) × 5/9 = -42.22°C

[probabilityofsuccess] 17/12/2021 18:28

What’s that in centigrade responsible? Just a little nod to last year 😉. Have a great weekend all

[responsible investor] 17/12/2021 17:40

-44 degrees F in Alaska

[bit coin] 17/12/2021 17:05

After a feast of good news this week I'm very much looking forward to a Santa Rally next and trust that we'll leave the share price below 100p firmly in 2021, Aye!

[michaelsadvfn] 17/12/2021 16:48

Thank goodness we can start ahead of schedule due to global warming.

Hang on a minute....

[scot126] 17/12/2021 16:32

Hi syed019 - thanks for the Proactive link. Ice road operations running ahead of last year which moves everything else up the schedule. Great to hear.

Please find below a very brief reaction to this morning's news from Canaccord. No numbers being changed of course so no need for a full note but it looks like the analyst is ensuring PANR's operational progress is going to be highlighted to his equity sales team and Canaccord's research clients. Newsflow is going to be coming pretty thick'n'fast in the New Year so it's a good idea for Canaccord to get the name recognition out there in advance.


"Canaccord Genuity view

Pantheon is making good progress in setting up for the 2022 drilling and testing programme in Alaska.

Theta West and Talitha operations approval granted

The primary approvals from the Alaskan State Department of Natural Resource (DNR) have been received. Various additional customary permits and authorisations are underway. We do not expect any issues with those.

Rig contracted

As previously indicated, the company has now formally contracted the Nordic Calista #3 rig and crew, for two news wells (Alkaid and Theta West). There is potential to add a further well at Alkaid. Testing at Talitha will be via a coiled tubing unit.

Ice road construction already underway

The cold weather has enabled this key start to the operations to begin, firstly to the Talitha#A location then on to the Theta West site.

No surprises here, but good progress on all fronts.

We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and our 200p target price."

[syed019] 17/12/2021 15:59

Jay's interview with Proactive post plan approvals now on youtube:hxxps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DTzBIl4-sgg&t=55s

[dhb368] 17/12/2021 15:54

ngms, stop waffling on and get to the point.

[dan de lion] 17/12/2021 15:23

There was a lateral going to be drilled at Talitha last year, is that a possibility this year?