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[rabito79] 16/12/2021 12:37

You probably want to review your risk reward then ngms if that's your genuine opinion.

[ngms27] 16/12/2021 12:25

Yes I think it's a 60 to 70% COS of getting something commercial, NOT per zone. Lets hope the LBFF comes in ;)

However on reflection it was a throw away remark without any context. Lets see what the testing brings out and where that lies within our own interpretations of what was meant.

BTW I think we will test the 94p recent high Pre Talitha testing.

[rabito79] 16/12/2021 12:23

As another reference point, and in full acknowledgement of both the source and the result. Dave Wall gave Charlie 1 a 50% COS based on the limited Malguk 1data.

[rabito79] 16/12/2021 12:20

I am sure you will understand ngms there will be caveats to almost everything posted which makes broad generalisations.Well ngms I remember you thought the 60-70% sounded about right previously. So do you think that's an aggregated COS over the whole acreage.

[ngms27] 16/12/2021 12:10

Rabito, if each of the five zones have a COS of 15% the well COS would be well in excess of Spangles 20% figure....

I also think 20% is just too generic and lacks any context. For example if you have a target with 15% COS that would cost $5m to drill with potential for 1 billion barrels recoverable would you drill it?

[rabito79] 16/12/2021 12:03

Right Johnswan, since nobody took you up on your 60-70% COS question I will now I am back from travelling.I do indeed believe that there is a 60-70% COS for the majority of our targets (not individual flow tests) this winter. As I previously commented on comparing my and Conor's numbers (and indeed the Brokers) is not comparing apples with apples.I prefer to see the Broker's COS of more of a derisking for the whole project rather than a measure of flow test success. Hence why despite having successfully been flow tested, Alkaid still has a 60% COS.When Jay gave his $2.8 NPV valuation I believe he was taking into account that Theta West for example will still not be fully derisked after this season. You will note that this $2.8 is almost half the Brokers NPVs and therefore the $2.8 already reflects that the wells will not be as appraised as much as Pikka was at the time of the Armstrong/Oil Search deal. It's for this reason that my article was highlighting what's up for grabs this Winter. Note for 88e I only awarded NPVs of $1.2 Of course there will be site specific factors at play and we can't expect LBFF at Talitha to have the same COS as the up dip LBFF drill at Theta West. Likewise we know the SFS and SMD may not be optimally targeted at Talitha. Hence,like Alkaid, we should be very careful in listening to the commentary surrounding each flow number and there could well be some volatility.On the 60-70%, other industry professionals who I respect have highlighted that broadly 50% of flow tests are successful. So given all our targets are deemed worthy of flow testing the 60-70% seems to me more realistic than your 20-30%, particularly given the quality of data post Talitha drill and the third party analysis/reviews (SOA unit award/VAS etc). Note I believe Spangle has previously mentioned you wouldn't drill something with a less than 20% COS (apologies if I am misquoting you Spangle)This is the reason that despite the significant difference in COS between my most recent analysis and the Brokers/Conor's we actually come out with a similar risked valuation.Hope this makes sense johnswan, can you explain why you think 20-30% is more apt for this winters activities in the light of data released to date?

[officerdigby] 16/12/2021 10:57

So the TR1. No way to know now if this is a result of any selling whatsoever right?

I mean the GBPO shares have to be the most part of the

103,527,926 - 66,690,855

Otherwise they didn't own much of company in the merger at all.

Speculate this is no selling by F.

I guess you could get all insidery on this and say perhaps GBPO sold down to load up in placement. There is currently no way to know either way

Unless get a GBPO TR1 b4 dissolution.

[michaelsadvfn] 16/12/2021 10:50

This excerpt from the VAS report...

‘Of note are the samples from about 9,000’ to 9,220’ below the Hue shale as these samples show particularly high sealed at well oil, but at the same time very low lab loaded oil. These data indicate very good to excellent oil mobility for the samples from 9,000 to 9,220’ md. We interpret these data to indicate these rocks from 9000’ to 9220’ to have very good reservoir qualities.’

This is the top section of the BFF that i suspect will be flow tested as one of the secondary targets. Sounds more than promising to me.

[johnswan193] 16/12/2021 10:20

30-Dec-20 - announced permits and authorisations secured to commence ice road construction and that this had already commenced

14-Jan-21 - announced spudding of Talitha A as at 13-Jan.

[michaelsadvfn] 16/12/2021 10:20

Investegate, PANR, and there’s the info you’re looking for.

[brian boru] 16/12/2021 09:53

I can't remember what was reported last winter but presumably the BOD will announce when ice road construction begins ?

[winner66] 16/12/2021 08:28

17 pence to go .

[winner66] 16/12/2021 08:09

The first part of the process in terms of share pride increase is to catch up on the 20p loss per share over the last month . That isn’t going to take long .

[winner66] 16/12/2021 08:02

I have a sense that we are going to strengthen above 76p today all things being equal .

[winner66] 16/12/2021 08:02

I have a sense that we are going to strengthen above 76p today all things being equal .

[johnswan193] 16/12/2021 07:52

Very pleasing on both fronts, though I expect all else equal the convertible bond holder will replace or compete with Farallon in time as the markets primary supplier, above 78p of course.

[chris0805] 16/12/2021 07:43

From 206m shares controlled/owned by Farallon in January '21 to owning 66m shares today. Some very loud voices promised their Twitter followers that "Farallon would destroy all the value for the other PANR shareholders."Farallon now controls

[winner66] 16/12/2021 07:27

Scot I one hundred percent agree with you. A well worded absolutely spot on post !