Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[johnswan193] 17/12/2021 10:32

Excellent news this AM re ice road construction.

As mentioned before I'm really interested to see how the price reacts around the 78p level and how the strategy of the convertible bond holder plays out above that.

Between Farallon and them there's potential for a lot of supply to put the breaks on a sustained run pre-testing, so will be extremely impressive if demand is strong enough to resist it and keep pushing the share price forward.

Expect a favourable flow result from testing of the LBFF at Talitha (being the first of the flow tests) could see £2+ even before TW has completed drilling.

[ngms27] 17/12/2021 10:30

Rabito79, as a suggestion it might help if we stop being so hostile to each other and impulsively think the worst. I'm game if you are?

[rabito79] 17/12/2021 10:27

Ngms looking back I had misquoted you so apologies for that.

[dan de lion] 17/12/2021 10:06

Looks like the ice road started earlier than last year as it will be very near completion in relation to the RNS date last year of 30/12/2020!

[michaelsadvfn] 17/12/2021 09:51

Why would it break out on that RNS tmmalik?

I get the impression you don’t understand the history.

[tmmalik] 17/12/2021 09:36

Another RNs for today -RT-1 notification of major shareholding 4.5 percent .It should breakout 80p now Dyor

[probabilityofsuccess] 17/12/2021 09:21

Thought - to avoid confusion/misinterpretation of what he or she said, why not each propose an unrisked and risked value, showing workings a la Rabito’s method, for EACH of the 5 targets?

Not a detailed model per se, but a common baseline which everyone can consider.

[ngms27] 17/12/2021 08:07

Rabito79 once again you quote me entirely wrong so I will have to correct you again.

Sure at present $1 per barrel sits comfortably to me, but where you are going wrong is assuming $1 per barrel After a successful flow test. If you actually read and absorbed what I've said I actually agree that your $3.1 per barrel will be suitable post a successful flow test.

Therefore my upside using your sum is approximately a five bagger from here. Ie 1.2 billion x 3.1 on a valuation basis.

However allowing for the normal market discount I'd expect the shares to trade North of 200P perhaps even 250p

[scot126] 17/12/2021 07:23

"...already commenced construction of the ice road..."

While we have been focused, understandably, on financing the company it is reassuring to read the operational side of the company has clearly been preparing for the winter programme for months. Witness the permitting process being far advanced and ice road construction *already* having commenced. It's actually very impressive when you think about it.

Wishing all the personnel and contractors involved a safe and successful season.

The market ought to be buoyed further by this update. Great stuff.

[inteligentia8] 17/12/2021 07:13

hxxps://www.share-talk.co.uk/announcements/rns/pantheon-resources/operations-update/202112170700079652V

[winner66] 17/12/2021 07:13

RNS What an absolutely fantastic read . 6 months plus of aggressive activity’s confirmed and a bullish statement from Jay !

[inteligentia8] 17/12/2021 07:12

hxxps://www.share-talk.co.uk/announcements/rns/pantheon-resources/operations-update/202112170700079652V

[inteligentia8] 17/12/2021 06:06

Goldman Says $100 Oil Possible as Record Demand Outpaces Supply

[chris0805] 17/12/2021 05:50

#20573 - fantastic post Rabito79.A well worded response which explains plenty to long term and newer followers of the PANR investment case... :-)

[scot126] 16/12/2021 22:50

Is that physics or financial modelling you're advising john "The Pinnacle" swan193 about, Rabito79?!

Bravo. The perfect post. h/t

[rabito79] 16/12/2021 22:46

If you can confidently assess the COS of the reservoirs I am sure you will be able to work it out. Start at the bottom and work your way up ?

[johnswan193] 16/12/2021 22:09

Thank you. Would you happen to have any links to the released Otto data and mapping of that to the Pantheon named targets?

[rabito79] 16/12/2021 22:08

The Otto numbers are the Pantheon reservoirs just under different names and previous to the last 5 years appraisal derisking.Pantheon's numbers when reviewed by LKA largely stood up to scrutiny. I don't see how this would change going forward.

[johnswan193] 16/12/2021 21:37

Rabito,

Those numbers have nothing to do with me.

“I can tell you that management are terrible salesman”. I guess that explains the appraisal/exploration inconsistency.

The para about Otto, I can’t tell from that at all how that compares to Panr. What is the general practice around COS numbers? It has to be extremely subjective, right? And what about recoverables? I get that the TW numbers are supposedly conservative, but what about all the other numbers, how reliable do these tend to be?

Point noted about the broker valuation, I’ll have a look back at that.

Like you suggested earlier, each target will have its own merits that are depending on various factors - they can’t all have the same COS applied. Ultimately we’ll just have to agree to disagree but I absolutely hope you are proved to be right.

[rabito79] 16/12/2021 21:06

Johnswan, as a salesman who works in the oil industry I can tell you that management are terrible salesman, so I don’t really buy the full sales mode piece. Likewise if last years drill was part appraisal, part exploration it’s no surprise that Bob has referred to it as both at different times. The webinars were recorded live after all.


As much as 6 years ago, Otto released numbers showing COS figures which ‘did not include reservoir effectiveness which can be overcome by horizontal drilling and fracture stimulation’. These numbers ranged from 10% to 40% for the individual reservoirs. Since then we have had the flow test at Alkaid, the eSeis work, Talitha A data including the VAS work and the award of production units. Yet using your numbers it would suggest there has been little or no derisking of the play at all. Indeed some have gone backwords. Like the Rehaboam Research article you shared you appear to completely ignore these 3rd party data points, although they did mention Otto right enough.





Please note my risked valuation is within about 20p or so of the Brokers risked valuation a point you seem to be ignoring. Likewise I have not actually stated a fully unrisked price target like Canaccord. My drilling upside target is not the same thing as Canaccord’s unrisked number hence why it’s ~50% lower and the reason for the much smaller gap between my risked and ‘drilling upside’ number. Hence why I repeat you are not comparing apples with apples. I am essentially saying there is a 60-70% chance Theta West will achieve 50% of its fully appraised value or circa 30-35% of the unrisked value, almost identical to Canaccord!!!!!


As for ngms, as others have suggested his contrarian views don’t necessarily correlate to his investing stance. I have calculated his risk reward for the LBFF coming good which is his very best outcome assuming the 60-70% is indeed for success in one zone.


Ngms Target NPV - $1/bbl
Biggest potential target - 1200 MMBO
COS for one zone - 60-70%
Risked valuation of biggest zone - $720M-$840M
Unrisked valuation - $1200M
Current Market Cap - $780M


As shown not great risk reward yet he remains invested. I do feel that you and ngms are sometimes blinded by your desire to be contrarian as the above numbers show.

[brian boru] 16/12/2021 20:54

Thanks for chart prediction, when this share moves it sure does move fast- in both directions!