Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[sirmark] 12/10/2021 09:27

Farmout due anyday.... If it's a major as someone already posted the farmout partner will probably be the new owner of the great Bear Pantheon !! £5 still my takeout target. Oil could be banging the drum of 90p as soon as next week and the rally from that to a pound will be short and sweet (the same as us imo) what will hit a pound first ???

[scot126] 12/10/2021 09:25

Typo for sure, zeusfurla.

[sirmark] 12/10/2021 09:24

Great report and we now look set to push for the pound party

[zeusfurla] 12/10/2021 09:23

WHI note is very positive as expected, given their supportive position for PANR.

A key point for me is that they state (twice) PANR 'will successfully secure project funding via a farmout when it is optimal to do so'. They are stating this with a reasonable degree of certainty.

2nd key point - 'the Talitha-A well bore was cleanly drilled with no crumbling or caving of the well's walls' resulting in materially increased confidence in oil reservoir geometry as well as the quality of well-log data. Increasing confidence in the available data and ability to extract large volumnes of oil is a major theme throughout the report.

Final point - 'Alkaid can be developed on an expedited basis....allowing for first production in 2021.' Is that a typo? I had expected 2022 for this.

[gosoftly7] 12/10/2021 08:47

ps I recall - hazily- that Alkaid being so close to the highway can be operated/ drilled year round.

[gosoftly7] 12/10/2021 08:45

They completed the capital raise on Nov 20 last year, and had the drill rig contracted by Nov 25.

They got lucky with the weather allowing the rig to be on site longer than would have been expected.

This year's programme may be Alkaid, Talitha and Theta.

I would hope that we would see the farm out or fund raise (my preference, but I am not as knowledgeable as Jay and his team - and I have great confidence in them) before end October so they are ready as soon as the weather allows them to begin.

Great WH Ireland note - thanks for posting.

[scot126] 12/10/2021 08:29

Dear All - please find below the first page of the WH Ireland note, dated 12/10/21.


Pantheon Resources

Elephants in close quarters

Based on the success of the Talitha #A well result, we are upgrading our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 172p (from under review; and from a pre-drill fair value estimate of 89p). We believe that the Talitha #A result confirmed the presence of multiple oil-bearing conventional oil reservoirs that have success-case potentials of elephantine scale. Our valuation reflects only the potential of Pantheon Resources’ prime assets for which resource estimates have been provided; namely, Theta West, the Shelf Margin Deltaic’s B horizon (SMD-B) and Alkaid.

Theta West: Theta West’s success-case recoverable resource estimate, as determined by Pantheon Resources, is 1.41bn barrels of oil, which we estimate equates to an after-tax NPV10 valuation of $5,879m ($4.17/barrel; 566.5 p/sh). We have included a risked 20% of that value, equating to 113.3p/sh in our fair value estimate.

SMD-B: SMD-B’s success-case recoverable resource estimate, as determined by Pantheon Resources, is 404m barrels of oil, which we estimate equates to an after-tax NPV10 valuation of $2,316m ($5.73/barrel; 223.2 p/sh). We have included a risked 20% of that value, equating to 44.6p/sh in our fair value estimate.

Alkaid: Alkaid’s success-case recoverable resource estimate, as determined by Lee Keeling and Associates, is 76.5m barrels of oil, which we estimate equates to an aftertax NPV10 valuation of $501.6m ($6.56/barrel; 48.3 p/sh). We have included a risked 25% of that value or 12.1p/sh in our fair value estimate.

Talitha #A: Critically, the Talitha #A well bore was cleanly drilled, with no crumbling or caving of the well’s walls, relative to previously drilled wells in the area. This provided a step-change improvement in well log data that allowed for 3D seismic data to be tied confidently to the well data. Talitha #A materially increased confidence in the geometry of the oil reservoirs penetrated by the well.

Independent validation: Well cuttings were independently assessed by a globally recognised leader in that field, Baker Hughes AHS Volatile Analysis Service, which determined that the five targeted zones of the Talitha #A had a combined oil-bearing column of 3,700’ (1.13 km) – an exceptional result by any standard.

Concentrated resource: The Talitha #A well confirmed the presence of a multitude of large-scale oil resources, all within extremely close proximity – elephants in close quarters. We believe this is very appealing from the perspective of potential farm-in partners, as infrastructure and well-pads can be shared. The proximity of this “herd of elephants” to the Dalton Highway and the adjacent Trans Alaska Pipeline System is also critically advantageous, in our opinion.

Next steps: The success of the Talitha #A well has provided significant confidence in the geometric scale of the elephantine-scale resources that it penetrated. This sets the scene to test the productive capabilities of all the reservoirs through well testing – extremely high-impact, forward-looking catalysts given the stakes involved, as confirmed by the Talitha #A well.

In conclusion: Pantheon is, we believe, on a particularly steep trajectory of value creation through operational progress. We believe that the macro-backdrop of i) an acutely forming global energy crisis and ii) robust oil prices further strengthens the outlook for Pantheon Resources. The team at Pantheon Resources and its strategic partners are recognised industry leaders that, we believe, will successfully secure project funding via a farmout when it is optimal to do so.

[scot126 - the risk factors the analyst has elected to use look kinda contrived to me. I can sympathise with the analyst's conundrum. If he goes out with a higher CoS, the sheer scale of the assets lead to a mathematical result which could lead the casual reader to doubt the credibility of the analyst's work v's a current mkt cap of circa $800m. Still, for those who target potential 10+ baggers, it's all laid out for you!]

[PS At time of writing, the share price is off a penny or two. Can confirm there's nothing in the full note which would provide a "new or fresh" basis to sell stock this morning. If anything, the exact opposite applies IMHO. Make of that what you will.]

[scot126] 12/10/2021 08:07

Dear All - I've got the WH Ireland note. The title is "Elephants in close quarters".

The new fair value is based on Alkaid, SMD-B and Theta West only, to which the analyst applies risk factors of 25%, 20% and 20% respectively.

From the webinar we know Bob Rosenthal assesses PANR has met the required threshold for the first part of the full CoS equation, being the geological CoS. He assesses the commercial CoS to be 60%-70%.

The WH Ireland analyst has used *extremely conservative* risk factors. I haven't read his explanation for this yet but had he not applied such conservative risk factors, he would have been going out to the market with a fair value of >5x today's mkt cap. More to follow.....

Unrisked NPV10 value is £6.2bn, equates to 838p per share.

[chris0805] 12/10/2021 07:55

Great wording from WHI :-)

[sporazene2] 12/10/2021 07:39

"Based on the success of the Talitha #A well result, we are upgrading our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 172p (from under review; and from a pre-drill fair value estimate of 89p). We believe that the Talitha #A result confirmed the presence of multiple oil-bearing conventional oil reservoirs that have success-case potentials of elephantine scale."

[total return] 12/10/2021 07:24

24 pager out today from W H Ireland. Fair value estimate at 172p.

[sirmark] 11/10/2021 22:31

US closed 1.13 (83p) so pretty much flat which I think is good considering on the back of a little pull back in the UK.I've put some extra funds by, ready incase we drop below 80 although I expect the 82.5 to show good support again.Seems a trading pattern has been in play for a bit rise at the start drop mid morning and rally back towards the US open... I wish I was good at trading as it looks obvious and could get some extra shares but I have the worst luck and it never works for me lolAt least we're now 1 day closer to farm-out or funding !

[bosbus] 11/10/2021 18:57

SP fell from 85 to 82.5 when the RNS was released. Prob someone working for ALNC after some cheap shares.

[sirmark] 11/10/2021 17:03

Agreed but I would say with news that "could" hit any-day.. should keep many buying the dip !

[forwood] 11/10/2021 16:49

It would seem so sirmark. Let's see what tomorrow brings. Daily chart is moving closer to a turn down on MACD.

[sirmark] 11/10/2021 15:38

seems very good support at 82.5 seems to bounce everytime it hits..

[chris0805] 11/10/2021 15:05

Lol.... Both ADVFN & LSE need Pharmawotsit on proof reading & Scot126 on Fact-checking...

[unlikely2] 11/10/2021 14:15

LSE are equally incompetent - same mistake there.

[youngbaz] 11/10/2021 14:10

I wouldn't say this isn't necessarily factual. Advfn's error is simply showing a news item relating to Pantheon Ventures on the Pantheon Resources news listings. Probably just an office junior posting to the wrong pigeon hole. I'm sure they'll - eventually - move it to the right place.

[officerdigby] 11/10/2021 12:41

Yes couldn't make up the timing. Im sure it will spook a few fully.Spooked me for a a few mins.

[chris0805] 11/10/2021 12:40

See my 17910... hopefully ADVFN withdraw / correct their non fact checked release?

[sirmark] 11/10/2021 12:36

I was thinking what the hell .... 300 mln raise listing ... ADVFN wants to give me a heart attack.

[sirmark] 11/10/2021 12:35

300 million raise ???
anyone seeing this

[scot126] 11/10/2021 12:11

US equity markets are open today.

Brent >$84.

[dhb368] 11/10/2021 12:06

Most markets in the US will be open today, including OTC, but maybe some individual brokers will be closed for Indigenous Peoples' Day?