Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[forwood] 08/10/2021 18:09

kiplig - I've worked in the markets as a trader for 30 years. I have an MBA - mine was a 3 year process based on the workplace. I was also a management consultant, trained to be an instant expert on whatever the problem was. That's a double dose of 'know it all'. But I don't know much about the technicalities of oil and gas, other than what I've picked up by association with many experts on this board and elsewhere.

Sorry if you find me 'condescending and pompous'. It's because I'm an old fart. Something I learned as a management consultant is that the busier and more high powered the audience,the simpler one needed to be to put your ideas across. There's also an element of defensiveness here because I'm often called on to justify my position.

hondacbf - I'm sure you're right. When I used the word, I was thinking of 'the fool' the Tarot card of a carefree young man looking up and about to step off a cliff. I tried to post a picture of it, but I wasn't able to make it small enough, so didn't. It's more than a conventional meaning of foolish, it's about innocence and uncertainty, having faith in the future, regardless of consequences. Which why I said 'the proverbial fool'.

[forwood] 08/10/2021 17:41

Scot, further to your 17846, you seem to assume there will be a sudden jump because we will move from a state of not knowing the winter programme will be funded, to one where we know it will. May I suggest that we already know it will be funded, one way or another. Is there any doubt? People have said, 'bring on a fund raise, I'll go for that' and that was completed last time within a couple of days. Absolutely no reason to think it won't happen again; even more optimism about it this time even. What we don't yet know are the terms, and those are far more likely to ground expectations than the idea it's going to happen.

[kiplig] 08/10/2021 17:33

Forwood. For someone who (a) has never worked in the markets, and (b) has never worked in oil and gas, you are quite the expert on everything. You're clearly bright, and articulate, but you are blind to the fact that people find you condescending and pompous.

[hondacbf] 08/10/2021 17:32

Forwood choice of language can make such a difference in a conversation. “Mistaken̶1; rather than “foolish”; may have been better in your recent reply - just a thought.

[forwood] 08/10/2021 17:29

Charting is not something apart from the reality of price movements; they are fundamental. I have a science degree. What you saw in the webinar was data, and that was interpreted to paint a picture of what we can expect. However, that picture is yet to be proven conventionally by flow rates, volumetric analyses etc., ultimately to give us an estimate of resources. Those estimates may or may not be accurate against the eventual extraction of oil into the pipelines. Compared to that, charts are for more certain. But you can argue about whether TA works or not, and I guess you're saying it's ineffectual. Yes, compared to what we'll find. No, because we then put a value on what is found, and we already 'know' that the value put on this by what people have been prepared to pay to date is far below an objective valuation of what the science suggests is there.

[magnusprinceps] 08/10/2021 17:09

The 'appliance of Science', as demonstrated in the recent webinar, provides a greater sense of what will ultimately lead to a successful flow and a transformational change in the Panr share price. Against such comparisons, charting is somehow rendered ineffectual.

[forwood] 08/10/2021 16:27

oh really? Always the professional's response to the layman. Was previous optimism from those 'in the know' justified by history? All I'm saying is that to think this is a one way street without acknowledging the possibility of failure or at least hiccup is foolish. I'm surprised at you HD!

[hiddendepths] 08/10/2021 16:21

Fool, forwood? Maybe they just know a hell of a lot more than you about what's going on!

[forwood] 08/10/2021 16:15

I realise I am treading on cherished aspirations here - and ones I share, absolutely, but I follow the chart logic through.

So, to answer you, POS, in my view the probability it will continue to go up is low. (note I won't say very low). But you then have to appreciate that an increasing share price will also push the indicators up even further. I have already said the next resistance point is c 94. There's another immediately above it, so let's say the band is 94 - 96, where 87 would then become support.

Scot - don't know how many times I've said this but news always voids the current chart condition. And while you may be right that a favourable farm in deal will send the share price up, it may not. A fund raise last time didn't, as I demonstrated quite clearly in 17805, with Sp action this time last year very similar to what is happening currently. Others have pointed out that the situation is different now that we have the Talitha and other results but last time, we also had metrics that strongly suggested drilling success, which is why we tanked when those results were ambiguous and failed to demonstrate flow. I'd also point out that any initial enthusiasm for the way the funding is resolved, be it farm in or fund raise will then likely in my view go to apprehension about drilling success. Someone said that recent events have cleared the bogey of past failure but I don't believe that is correct. Anything could happen, and chances are high that something will.

Of course, we all hope that this is too negative a view. I am naturally optimistic but I've seen that optimism turn to deep disappointment with PANR too many times to think this is a one way street. And anyone thinking differently in my view is the proverbial fool.

[gozo] 08/10/2021 16:04

The 20,000 buyer moves in on any selling

[madd_rip] 08/10/2021 15:57

Lots of 4656 trades too

[sirmark] 08/10/2021 15:33

Doing well considering the low volume ( I'm comparison the the past week)A very pleasant surprise

[scot126] 08/10/2021 15:28

Prof Sir forwood, post #17839: the most obvious weakness, to my mind, of the explanation/interpretation in post #17839 is that we're facing a binary call. *Purely* for the purposes of this debate, let's say a farm out or successful fund raise is announced at 7am this Monday coming? The market assesses the terms to be fair, the market can certainly live with the terms.....and then what? Personal view is that the market goes on to begin focussing its complete, undistracted attention on pricing the upside/downside risk of the operations now secured by the funding.

It will surprise precisely no-one to learn that I contend the market is not pricing *anywhere near correctly* the upside risk of a) the flow test of Talitha-A b) the drill and flow test of the Theta West crest and c) the drill of Alkaid-2 complete with lateral allowing a LTPT to proceed along with generating positive cashflows plus achieving a reserves classification at Alkaid.

In the scenario where an RNS is published which secures funding for the three operations described above, I am genuinely struggling to see how TA comes into play at all? Any such announcement would surely be so fundamental, such a tipping point delivering "new news" pointing to a clear pathway towards empirical data collection => proving up the investment case......surely any TA becomes redundant from that moment until the market has had sufficient time to digest the news? Put another way, if the BoD secures funding for the winter programme, the share price surely gaps up?

NB "scenario" was used very deliberately in this post.

[rafthorney] 08/10/2021 15:22

Good question pos.

[quazie12] 08/10/2021 15:22

Personally I don't really buy into long term stochastic lagging indicators for small and medium cap shares. Support and resistance are meaningful for sure but the share price of PANR is largely driven by news sentiment and underlying valuation not chart analysis

[ngms27] 08/10/2021 15:18

redhill9, agreed but it's not earlier than expected given October 1st was the start of Q4.

Sure we know it was announced in November last year, but if they want to test Talitha AND drill Theta West then they need to start earlier than last year.

[probabilityofsuccess] 08/10/2021 15:15

Thanks Forwood - so in your view the probability it will continue to go up is very low. But if it did continue to rise, what does the chart say it could go up to (before it starts coming down again!)?

Question more prescient now as it seems to keep (touch wood!) going up 😀

[quazie12] 08/10/2021 15:12

This share has been a traders dream last few sessions, buy on the morning retrace and sell for a 3 or 4 percent gain before the close

[forwood] 08/10/2021 15:01

PS - I would also assess where the indicators are in relation to any prediction of where the chart is going next. Although on a 5 year view above you can see that MACD has reached much higher levels than where it is now (2015 - 17), those really were exceptional. Not to say they couldn't go back to those levels but MACD is now the highest it's been since late 2016. With RSI and stochastic also at highs, it strengthens my view that the share is overbought and unlikely to go higher until these indicators have 'unwound' ie retreated to the downside, thus allowing momentum to build again.

[madd_rip] 08/10/2021 15:00

Most informative, thanks

[redhill9] 08/10/2021 14:59

ngms278 Oct '21 - 14:32 - 17834 of 17836
0 2 0
You've also got to be in it to win it.

Funding must be close one way or another.

I could be wrong of course but as the company said Q4 and as we're still in early October I suspect it's very doubtful anything will be announced soon. Based on my 27 years of researching O&G companies and the industry generally, experience shows these things are rarely announced earlier than expected......;}

[forwood] 08/10/2021 14:51

POS If you're looking for the principles behind it, you're more than halfway to understanding 'charting' per se, or to give its proper title Technical Analysis (TA).

'if there are indicators that suggest it’s going to go one way then you look at resistance points in that direction only'

Yes but not 'only' - you'd assess those resistance points - the strongest being those where end of day prices on the daily chart have been before - and how many times those points have been reached. On the upside trend, these will be points above where you are now, where the price has reached lows, and where it hasn't progressed further.

In then assessing the chart, it may hit the underside of a trend line and bounce off it - when you might then think about where the supports are. Those will be the theoretical downside limits but as you saw in my post 17786 there can be more than one. These are always 'potential' supports ie more likely than other price points on the chart. Their potential is increased, again, by how many times the price has come to rest at those points. Another key principle is that when price action has broken through the trend line resistance, that then becomes support.

I don't tend to consider shorter timescales than the daily chart, but these may be relevant. On the hourly chart now you can see we've been testing 86/87, thus confirming this area as a key resistance point. On the daily chart, drawing a horizontal line back to Nov 2015 you see that price has come to rest here several times up to mid March 2017. And yes these are relevant because those were the last times price was at these points (disregarding the time value of money!). As to the why, I can give no better reason than the self fulfilling prophecy of TA orthodoxy! In other words, because so many tend to observe and use these points, it gives them increased power.

You really do need to see examples of these - and stock charts has them: search on 'trend' and it will quickly take you to 'support and resistance'. But I do include the current chart below - not the best example of a chart but advfn allows easy pasting. I've also included the point above if we were to break through the current resistance, ie an end of day price above it that survives a test of it as support.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com