Pace Plc Share Discussion Threads

[football] 25/6/2018 09:35

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[waggle] 25/6/2018 09:17

and the question has to be asked just how short some of GS clients are/were....

[freddie01] 23/6/2018 08:08

“A winter day in the Grand Canyon,” writes Your Shot photographer, Sandy P. “I had only 10 mins of good light that day and were about to leave the place when this opportunity came.” Photograph by Sandy P.







The Enchanted Forest, British Columbia, Canada | by @viktoriahaack

[andyble] 22/6/2018 18:40

StreetInsider :-

"Goldman Sachs assumes ARRIS Group (NASDAQ: ARRS) at Sell, price target $24.00.
Analyst Rod Hall assumes coverage from analyst Doug Clark and issues a model which results in a new price target of $24.00 (down from Doug's $35.00) and a new Sell rating (down from Doug's Buy). Hall's new model uses a 7x multiple on CY 2019 estimate EV/EBITDA which differs materially from the prior analyst's 50% on 11x FY 2019 estimated P/E and 50% on 8x FY 2019 EV/EBITDA. Hall also believes that cord-cutting is not adequately reflected in Street expectations and says WLAN implied share gains look to be high. He notes that cable trends are worsening in 2018, sees competition intensifying in networks an cloud and notes that while the FCF profile is attractive cash continues to be primarily used for M&A."

So this is a shift from valuing half the business at 8xEBITDA and half at a p/e of 11, to a valuation basis of all of it 7xEBITDA. I presume for the latter that debt is then deducted and that this is all non gaap or something close to cash flow. The former differentiates between the legacy set top business and the rest. I cannot see the justification for valuing the whole business on the same basis. Moreover, if a shift in assumptions yields such a profound shift in valuation then that alone should raise questions about both bases and the credibility of either approach. Imagine if our pension funds were valued on these changing bases, it is the same science. Note that the market took the bait, which was probably known a couple of days before too, and duly took the price down to the arbitrary $24.

Conclusion - what a lot of nonsense - but at least we should have a floor now - watch this space for when Arris possibly surprises with qtr2 and with telegraphed bumper CPE/set top sales - Goldman Sachs will need a new analyst or another new valuation basis. The better way to value Arris is cash flow based as two different types of businesses and with two very different risk/growth/product cycle profiles. This would still only mean a p/e of near 10 and would take us back to something like the $35 as a floor.

[bashor] 22/6/2018 16:46

At least it’s opened up a little

[1carus] 22/6/2018 16:00

Alex, it's easy to get negative, on paper I have lost about 30k on 250k accross the afore mentioned shares and Tw. Since the tw ex divi date. (Minus any incoming divis in the future) I guess I have a number of shares that have ex divis aroundbthe same date... oh that includes Ng. Makes me want to look at selling on or around ex divi dates rather than holding. It seems many shares drop by more than the divi when they go ex divi. At least arris does not have that issue. Anyway a blue day for me which seems rare for a Friday.

[alexmcdonald] 22/6/2018 12:34

1carus - I agree with you about buy backs. I too hold a lot of LLOY and love the dividends we get. However, with no special dividend announced for this year so far, it doesn't feel as if we are getting true value when the buy backs are not raising the share price. We need to wait till 1st August for both Lloyd's Banking Group and Arris results. I will be in Greenland when the results are announced.

[1carus] 22/6/2018 12:09

Alex, I am not currently a fan of buybacks, I have LLOY and this particular plan is seemingly backfiring. There is no point in owning shares if there is no benefit in any time period which seems to be the case here with Arris, they do have the power to return value to shareholders even if it a very small divi return in the first instance. Oddly when we owned Pace it always seemed that Arris did a better job of marketing itself in the Market Place, just goes the show the grass only appears to be greener on the other side. With regard to a take over, could this be the board's strategy. Despite frustrations with owning Pace, the board were very upfront with the idea of the team were focussed on building true value that would pay off one way or another, indeed it did! I hold for now but would look at selling at anywhere around 4.50 old money.

[freddie01] 22/6/2018 11:26

Lago di Braies, Italy | by @d.ropero

[bashor] 22/6/2018 10:35

Alex I do wonder if this will ever come good, I’m not a fan of the board and wish Pace had mopped up Arris and Pulli left to run with it, that said I’m going to watch and wait and could well end up back here with a fairly substantial holding, my 2 largest recovery plays are currently GNC & PETS, if one of them surprises to the up side at the next trading statement I’ll reduce and then may come back to join you, good luck

[alexmcdonald] 22/6/2018 08:22

The culprit!!!



It will be interesting to see how the institutional investors react to this.
I also think that this is a good time for Arris to buy back more stock to indicate that the current price is too low.

[andyble] 21/6/2018 21:35

Very large volume after recent days of also high volume.

[bashor] 21/6/2018 18:34

I never thought I’d be saying this but it could well be time for me to buy back in here

[waggle] 21/6/2018 16:27

so now we are trading on a forward p/e of 8x..... definitely back into being a takeover target?!

[alexmcdonald] 21/6/2018 13:39

I listened to the Nasdaq presentation by Bruce McClelland and he was positive in his outlook throughout the whole presentation. He even suggested that memory prices were resolved by customers sharing the additional costs of memory and selective order acceptance.
When I look at memory pricing today, it has stabilized and looks likely to fall during the next 12 months due to more devices being manufactured.

[alexmcdonald] 21/6/2018 13:04

What do Goldman Sachs know? They repeatedly get their forecasts so wrong. Most other guidance to date is either Buy or Hold.

[andyble] 21/6/2018 12:30

Goldman Sachs downgrade to sell perhaps.

[waggle] 21/6/2018 09:24

so any ideas on the after market fall??

[freddie01] 20/6/2018 07:34

A Giant Moray Eel (Gymnothorax javanicus) lurks at the South Lagoon dive site in the Tiran Island area, Egypt. “One of the less shy creatures lurking in our seas. Found all over the world in many shapes, sizes and colors they are always sure to make great subjects,” writes Your Shot photographer Jamie Hall



Milford Sound, located in Southland, New Zealand is a place that rains 300 days a year, and every rain changes the landscape. “This was my 3rd time here to photograph Milford Sound









little boat | Francesco Ocello | Venice, Italy

[alexmcdonald] 18/6/2018 14:25

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