Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[apfindley] 04/12/2015 14:40

Lol why are you so bothered.?If you're not invested then walk away.If you are invested then sit patiently.You appear too obsessed with OXS.Go enjoy the weekend with your family, if you have family.

[pennyfalls] 04/12/2015 14:38

Nick et al...
Yes, I believe that the majority of 40% not reported will either be claimant wins or a pre-existing confidentiality agreement..
That figure is unknown and would be a guess.

It also doesn't take into account settlements..

But as pure statistics of 60% of cases that we do know, Tim Hart has won his lot.

So take 40% of others and call them a loss - it' still a high number.

On Advfn, Everyone starts jumpping up and down about supposed anti-Oxus posts - this isn't. But it is worth bearing in mind a hell of cases get small payouts.

You know what I feel here (I don't post much, as there's more white noise on here than any other message board - paratf from LSE today ;o) Hi Glen!

But I think we'll get a circa $150Mill award. That'sa win to me, but statistcially it would be included in the loss section.

Carry on Ramping

[apfindley] 04/12/2015 14:37

He's obviously only going to publish cases where his valuation was closely met.Not exactly going to tout much business if he publishes all his failures on his website.

[papillon] 04/12/2015 14:30

Volume almost non existent today (less than 120k of shares traded on AIM so far today), apfindley, so it appears that your derampers are not being very successful in causing mass panic and hence huge selling pressure!!

Unfortunately the current share price and very low volume is exhibiting all the normal characteristics of an AIM stock. The share price spikes up/rises on good news (the "very near future" comment of 30th September) then gradually falls back to from whence it came (the share price on 29th September) in the absence of further good/bullish news.

Par for the course. If I had had a crystal ball I would have sold all my shares at the circa 4.5p intraday high in early October and bought them back now. Unfortunately I haven't got a crystal ball so I hung onto my shares because I suspect the arbitration verdict could be announced at any time and I don't want to be out when the verdict is announced.

That's why I always post the "for what it's worth" comment when I post a chart. Something that others who post charts should copy. Because if those posting charts could predict the future for the OXS share price from their charts they would have sold all their shares in early October and bought them back the day before the verdict is announced!! Simple really!!

[kcowe] 04/12/2015 14:28

squeezing the price down... to find buyers...

[the stigologist] 04/12/2015 14:22

You know that when there is 'noise' it is uninformed short term traders making it.

It's like the short-stack at the poker table bluffing because they're about to fold. And remember if you're at the poker table and you don't know who the mug is, it's you.

[nick2412] 04/12/2015 13:59

Pf - interesting figures but three points;

Firstly, arguably the vast majority of the 40% where no result is published are likely to be respondents coughing up a decent percentage of the claim. A condition if settlement is offered is likely to be confidentiality.

Secondly, the figures quoted include many who will fail at the jurisdiction stage. Oxus passed that so I'd like to see the figures for cases where jurisdiction was 'won' by the complainant.

Finally, a 20% of claim payout is $240m and equates to about 12p based on conservative figures of 750m shares in issue and Calunius taking 25% of the award. That's not far off a 400% return. I'd be content with any investment getting a fraction of that return and I wouldn't class it as a 'loss'.

[razoblade] 04/12/2015 13:55

Well we can say arbitration cases do consider his valuation seriously.

[apfindley] 04/12/2015 13:48

So it's not specifically about his valuation of the OXUS assets, figures HE has used in OUR arbitration case to officially value the OXUS assets???So it's basically meaningless?At least the Ernst & young figures of upto $1.2billion for their valuation of the assets ARE used officially in OUR arbitration case.Dear Oh dear.

[pennyfalls] 04/12/2015 13:44

replace hxxp with http

[pennyfalls] 04/12/2015 13:43

hxxp://www.credibilityconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Credibility-ICSID-Damages-Study-June-2014-Jan-2015.pdf

I think that's it..
it's ICSID cases, but involves all the same lawyers, personnel etc, and don't think figures vary much from UNCITRAL

Cheers

[apfindley] 04/12/2015 13:43

I look forward to it Please make sure you provide a link to the documents.

[kcowe] 04/12/2015 13:38

I don't think one minute this price action is about the concentration span of midges being limited. If no guidance was given we would be still at 3p ... awaiting news patiently, as we have for years,expectations have been managed poorly .

[pennyfalls] 04/12/2015 13:36

Yeah...I'll go back through the links and post it.
Figures are from 2014...They are compiled by a company he is part of, so do not know how slanted they are, but probably plug him a bit..
will get back in 5 mins

[kun aguero1] 04/12/2015 13:29

Come the result the same dissenting voices will all be singing, For he`s a jolly good fellow.

The bile being spoken is dreadful considering, V.N.F. could be anytime within 4 to 6 months. R.Shead, fortunately, knows the concentration span of midges is limited.

[apfindley] 04/12/2015 13:28

Would you care to enlighten us as to what Tim harts figures are?As far as I'm aware they have never been published.

[pennyfalls] 04/12/2015 13:24

Someone asked why is the share price at 3p ??!

Well, if everyone decided to avoid ramping and deramping, they'd see statistically (See posts, links on LSE, don't wanna bore you)..

That 80% of claiamants either lose or get less than 20% of what they originally claimed. This did not include 40% of cases where no result was published for confidentiality agreements or other reasons.

So just on the the published figures , there is a 4 in 5 chance of getting from Zero to 20% of claim (taking Oxus best figure) $240Mill.

That's why we are at 3p. There's a quite a high chaance this will be a loss, or at least only up to $240Mill - with Tim Hart (the Uzbeks' valuer) having a 100% record on the published stats - ie Getting lowball figures accepted.

That's how it is...That's why this is a gamble.

[blueblood] 04/12/2015 13:18

It's a good job the CLNs are out of the way! Really expect news in 2015....

[fatmattress] 04/12/2015 13:16

When you have waited so long 'days' is not the definition of near future. I am confident the statement is accurate and before 2016 was the timeframe. That equates to 3 months max

[kcowe] 04/12/2015 13:08

Exactly.. Trusting Sheads guidance is a fools errand.

[lithological heterogeneities] 04/12/2015 13:00

"end of 2014" and "in the very near future" - where is the RNS?.

[apfindley] 04/12/2015 12:45

Lol papI'm not worried about the priceI'm not worried in the slightestI never mention the day to day price I'm the one who has been saying for many many months that no matter what the shareprice is, it will not affect the arbitration outcome in the slightestI do however laugh at the idiots that come on here posting endless commentary on something they claim to have no interest in

[papillon] 04/12/2015 12:43

In fact, apfindley, derampers tend to come out in force on these bb's AFTER the share price has already fallen/collapsed. They are like vultures feeding on a oorpse; they are opportunistic.