Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 24/11/2015 23:07

"Strategic Update
Thu, 3rd Feb 2011 07:00

RNS Number : 5951A

Oxus Gold PLC

03 February 2011

Oxus Gold plc

Strategic Update

Oxus Gold ("Oxus" or the "Company") refers to recent discussions between its wholly owned subsidiary, Oxus Resources Corporation ("ORC"), and the Uzbek shareholders of ORC's 50% owned Amantaytau Goldfields joint venture ("AGF").

As a result of these discussions, the Uzbek shareholders have agreed, in principle, to acquire ORC's 50% shareholding in AGF for cash, at a price to be agreed. The Directors of Oxus will only recommend a disposal of ORC's interest in AGF if the price agreed in their opinion represents fair value to the shareholders of Oxus."

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I wonder what price OXS would have accepted for their stake in the JV? Would OXS have accepted a low ball bid because they were under pressure, both from the Uzbeks and the failure of the Chinese financing? Did the Uzbeks indicate to OXS what they were prepared to pay? Probably not because this RNS followed:


"International Arbitration / Directorate Change
Thu, 3rd Mar 2011 14:48

RNS Number : 2992C

Oxus Gold PLC

03 March 2011

Oxus Gold plc

International Arbitration / Directorate Change

Oxus Gold ("Oxus" or the "Company") refers to the recent announcement of discussions between its wholly owned subsidiary, Oxus Resources Corporation ("ORC") and the Uzbek shareholders of Amantaytau Goldfields ("AGF") to acquire ORC's 50% owned stake in the AGF joint venture. As previously announced, the Uzbek shareholders, being Uzbek State owned entities, had agreed, in principle, to acquire ORC's 50% shareholding in AGF for cash, at a price to be agreed.

Since the above announcement, AGF has been subjected to an extensive audit of the financial and economic activities of AGF by an audit commission appointed by the Ministry of Finance in Uzbekistan. The practices employed by the audit commission have led the Directors to conclude that there is no evaluation of the assets taking place in good faith and there is a risk of the audit committee using the process to find reasons to justify putting AGF into liquidation. Accordingly, Oxus has now appointed Amsterdam & Peroff LLP ("A&P"), as legal counsel who specialise in dealing with disputes involving Sovereign States, to act on its behalf and A&P today advised the Government of Uzbekistan that Oxus intends to move directly to international arbitration to protect the interests of shareholders of Oxus, in the event that an agreement cannot be reached to dispose of ORC's shareholding in AGF for fair value or where there is any attempt to force AGF into liquidation."

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[the stigologist] 24/11/2015 22:36

The fundamentals are all known knowns. Pointless arguing/debating about it now. Anybody who is a long term investor already has formed a view and is in for the result.

[wulber] 24/11/2015 22:21

I fell asleep half way through reading!LOL

[nick2412] 24/11/2015 21:37

An extract from Craig Murray's fascinating book with references to Richard Wilkins and OXS :-

[nick2412] 24/11/2015 21:34

Thanks papillon and I enjoy your posts as well.

[nick2412] 24/11/2015 21:33

Interesting to see OXS use the word 'award' rather than 'decision' in this RNS :-



"It is presently anticipated that the Arbitral Tribunal will render its award in 2014."

I suspect it's just a reference to the fact that the Uzbeks put in a counter claim (so award isn't necessarily exclusive to OXS) although it would be nice to think it was lawyer advice suggesting an OXS award of some amount is inevitable.

[papillon] 24/11/2015 21:30

Three excellent posts there, Nick (posts 28833, 28834 & 28836). Well researched and very, very, informative. Many thanks for posting them.

[nick2412] 24/11/2015 21:21

Anyway, just trying to bring the focus a bit more onto the claim. The thread has descended into being a bit borish and argumentative on a personal level. There's a few posters who think making a post with a dig at another poster is of interest to anyone other than themselves.

[nick2412] 24/11/2015 21:16

I'd argue against the view 'DavidUzbek' takes ...

1) OXS had a $150 loan facility from RBS. This was withdrawn because according to an OXS RNS of the "capricious and unpredictable" Uxbek tax regine.

2) OXS had the CITIC potential Chinese funding of $185. According to OXS the Uzbeks effectively prevented OXS from satisfying applicable conditions to enable completion of the funding , for example, the threat to liquidate AGF.

3) The Uzbeks supposedly promised to enter in to good faith negotiations to buy 50% and OXS (presumably because of the unfair conditions they were operating under) were willing to sell under market price. The public domain information suggests the Uzbeks were not serious about this pledge and were intent on pursuing pushing AGF into liquidation.

4) There has been no reason anywhere why the Uzbeks took away the rights to mine Khandiza from OXS. OXS didn't even have the chance to invest and fund that prospect as far as I can see from the public domain information. Khandiza interests me because even the experts Ernst and Young give a massive range for a valuation. That's why it is so hard to predict how much OXS will get if the arbitrators make an award.

5) OXS are Calunius funded and they would have done extensive due diligence in relation to things like breach of contract.

Wilfy, if you read this ... any comment on DavidUzbek's posts and the legal aspect in terms of the arbitration in relation to breach of contract and project funding?

[papillon] 24/11/2015 21:09

"The market, currently is guessing about 10/1 against."

Nonsense! If the "market" was "guessing" odds of 10/1 against then the OXS share price would be a lot lower than it currently is. Possibly closer to 1p than 4p.

[nick2412] 24/11/2015 21:04

I'm as bullish as anyone on the prospect of getting a win and a reasonable award although I'm grounded enough to not expect the larger award amounts that have been suggested on here. It's possible but we just don't have enough information on the case that the Uzbels will make to reduce the amount or counter against an OXS win. I also always like to see the bear case as well. This post on another site from DavidUzbek is interesting. It gives the likely thrust from the Uzbeks but it's missing a lot of context for OXS :-

DabidUzbek's comments (not mine) : "Oxus unfortunately did not complete their side of the agreement as they could not find the necessary finance despite being warned on several occasions that if the finance weren't in place at the agreed period, then there was no deal.

The Chinese "concert party" fiasco blew right up in their faces leaving no time to find an alternative solution and having to accept the consequence."

This failure to finance is the Uzbek defense and it's rather strong as it is clearly in breach of contractual terms, warnings were also give to Oxus that no finance would result in removal of the asset.

This is really a case six of one and half dozen of the other. The longer it goes on, the more complex the problem actually is, and the harder it is to find a fair arbitration, resulting in more delays until a final ruling is published.

Oxus and the Uzbek government will know about 10 minutes before anybody else of the ruling, timing and outcome, no more."

[nick2412] 24/11/2015 20:53

Interesting old comment from the former Uzbekistan Ambassador, Craig Murray, who writes an excellent blog now and wrote a brilliant book as well.



Hi Craig,

I wonder if you noted the predictable conclusion for Oxus Gold. Ministry of Finance investigation and the likely liquidation of the JV. I imagine Karimov's daughter will create an new JV with Asian investors. I did some work for the company, then Oxus Mining in Khandiza in the late 1990's.

I just wanted to compliment you on your excellent book, Murder in Samerkand. It was one of the best I have read, from my own experience I find it all very real.

Best regards

Gary Stockdale

Craig_Murray

4 Mar, 2011 - 11:25 am

Thank you Gary. I am sorry to hear about Oxus – I still remember Richard Wilkins fondly, but it was indeed bound to happen.

I always especially appreciate comments on M in S from people who know what I'm talking about!

[tburns] 24/11/2015 20:50

Cheers for that Donald Rumsfeld!

[davisc5] 24/11/2015 20:28

I need a lie down after reading that

[netcurtains] 24/11/2015 20:03

You could argue that if Uzbekistan were going to cough up the price of the share would go up because its impossible to keep these things secret. That is my current thinking.

However, the "unknown" is huge, its not just what you don't know its also what you do not know that you do not know. For example I know I do not know the outcome of the arbitration but there are other things out there that I do not know that might or might not have a big bearing on the price of this share tomorrow (random colds and viruses affecting the key players for example).

There will be variables out there that we can only guess at. Its not really a 50/50 bet, its a "guess" that its 50/50.... The market, currently is guessing about 10/1 against.

I'm in because I'm guessing the odds are better than 10/1 so the share is cheap - if I am right. Perhaps its to my advantage, as a trader that we NEVER know the outcome but rather we just have different feelings about the likelihood of the outcome - we just make money or lose money on the virtual outcome - like "futures".

[78steve] 24/11/2015 17:31

I think this will keep on drifting down towards 3p and beyond unless we have the RNS.

[wulber] 24/11/2015 17:29

Nice to see the 2 x 500k buys plus +600k buys today. Surely not much stock up for grabs being in safe hands now.

[nash81] 24/11/2015 17:05

come on OXS,,, i need santa rally. need the profit to top up other shares lol !!

give us the reward !

[the stigologist] 24/11/2015 17:04

Must surely be getting to Darwin equity issue stage as well.

[the stigologist] 24/11/2015 17:03

The 50 day SMA has come up to meet the current share price quite quickly. Should provide strong support to bounce off.

[weegeordie] 24/11/2015 15:33

99J - well, it is much more interesting than most of the drivel posted! :)

[melodrama] 24/11/2015 15:31

Will do sir!