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OXS Oxus Gold

3.125
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 00:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Oxus Gold LSE:OXS London Ordinary Share GB0030632714 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 3.125 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

Showing 34326 to 34349 of 43250 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
12/10/2015
20:47
No Fear

C'mon the Ox....

central
12/10/2015
20:05
Surely it's the funders, Calunius, not the lawyers who are on a "no win, no fee basis"?
papillon
12/10/2015
20:02
You would expect that a no win no fee basis that oxus have means our lawyers are bloody confident!!!!
a.fewbob
12/10/2015
19:52
Yet again may I remind everyone that the outcome will not be based on fairness or justice - it will be based on which side has the better lawyers.
jaf1948
12/10/2015
19:49
Yeah £1 a share !
wulber
12/10/2015
19:07
Orgasmic + APF,

good posts at #25630 and#25637 thanks.

The overriding fact for me is that Oxus were the victims in this, I hate the word but its apt here. They lost any opportunity to fulfill the potential of their risky investment by the actions of the Uzbeks.

If justice prevails, and we all know that that isn't a forgone conclusion, then they should be put back into a position that they would have been prior to the expropriation. And we all have an opinion on that.

hairballradical
12/10/2015
19:06
really??
well the 2009 report quite clearly states.....

---------------------
"The project’s initial capital funding requirement is estimated to be $167.8 million. A further $48.7 million of sustaining capital over the life of the project is assumed to be funded from the project cash flows. From the time of reaching full production, operating costs are forecast to be $86.30 per tonne of ore mined and $402 per ounce of gold produced.

The original BFS was based on the COMEX forward gold price curve at the date of the BFS as supplied by Standard Bank London Ltd. At a flat gold price of $850 per ounce with no inflation of costs, the net present values of the project, ungeared and pre-profits tax, are $582 million at a discount rate of 0% per annum, $364 million at 7% per annum and $299 million at 10% per annum. The internal rate of return is 57.0% and payback is 24 months from start of production."
---------------------

at a gold price of only $850/oz, we had a NPV of $582million and forecasted cost to produce gold was $402/oz.

(note this is all for Amantaytau only.)

.

apfindley
12/10/2015
19:05
Thank you ap:"awarding compensatory damages in favor of Claimant. in an amount to be provenand quantified in these proceedings and currently estimated as no less thanUS$400 million, including - by way of example only, and without limitation -the loss of shareholder value, fair market value of the seized assets andimprovements to the various mineral sites thereon, lost profits that Claimantwould have realized under its various agreements and associated developmentand feasibility plans over the course of their full term;"For you ne'sleyers, it's in the bag!
wulber
12/10/2015
18:59
Reading a few of the summaries at the beginning the 2005-2010 Annual Reports doesn't paint a picture of huge profits though, considering the quantities of gold sometimes extracted.

hxxp://www.oxusgold.co.uk/financials.asp

99jeremiah
12/10/2015
18:58
notice, the ammount sought went from "Estimated" in 2011 to "Calculated" in 2012
apfindley
12/10/2015
18:57
November 14th 2012

Update on the Arbitration Proceedings

The Company provides the following update on arbitration proceedings which complies with the Order of the Arbitral Tribunal dated March 19, 2012 on the confidentiality of the arbitral proceedings.

The Arbitral Tribunal has held that Oxus has standing under the bilateral investment treaty between the United Kingdom and Uzbekistan dated November 24, 1993 (the "BIT") to bring its claims for expropriation as direct and indirect shareholder of the non-UK subsidiaries that have made the investment in Uzbekistan.

The losses to Oxus caused by this expropriation have been calculated by Ernst & Young according to alternative legal and quantification theories. On the basis of a discounted cash flow ("DCF") quantification, the loss in respect of the Khandiza investment ranges from a high of USD 588.7 million to a low of USD 72.1 million, and as a very last alternative, on a restitution basis (i.e. upon the restoration of the Company's Khandiza investment), USD 9 million. The Company's losses in respect of its AGF investment have been quantified by Ernst & Young together with Wardell Armstrong International on the basis of a DCF quantification as ranging as high as USD 661.8 million and not lower than USD 480.3 million.

.

apfindley
12/10/2015
18:54
apf its the new batch of holders - no doubt they still think we are mining gold somewhere.

when it gets to 5p theyll be gone.

skez13
12/10/2015
18:51
lol are you guys straight out of kindergarten?

you cannot value the producing asset in the ground on either the company shareprice or market capital.

do you think every company shareprice reflects exact value at all times?
if that was the case, there would be limited fluctuations in all company shareprices, and nobody would make any money except for through dividends.

lol, just lol

apfindley
12/10/2015
18:47
this couldn't hold a candle to Centamin CEY
deanroberthunt
12/10/2015
18:47
you lot are on drugs!
deanroberthunt
12/10/2015
18:42
based on what calculation?
skez13
12/10/2015
18:40
It may return to the same market cap not the same share price.10p max on a good outcome
donpatrol
12/10/2015
18:38
What was Oxus share price before this fiasco started? You wouldve thought it should be returned to that price as a minimum?
78steve
12/10/2015
17:59
Indeed!Ramp up to full production at 300k on a DCF and then we're in to figures much beyond the pro's calculated!
wulber
12/10/2015
17:49
ok a few 'facts'
we were a low cost producer with costs of around $400/oz
we had proven gold of 3.5million oz
were producing 100,000 oz per annum
we planned to increase to 300,000 oz per annum
we had upside at agf2 to potentially 24Million oz
the gold price peaked at time of expropriation at $1800/oz
and today is around $1200/oz

our max profit per oz was $1400/oz
our profit at todays price would still be $800/oz

the minimum annual profits after costs would therefore be $80million
the maximum annual profits after costs would of been $140million
(based on 100,000 oz per annum.

none of us have any real idea what they will do with the numbers to arrive at a final figure, or how they will agree on a valuation for the asset, or over what length of time they will use to calculate our lost profits.

as time drags on, will the figures soar each year until its concluded?

one interesting thing i note from earlier in the arbitration, which i cant find at this moment without wasting lots of time scouring for it, is that the headline figures derived by E&Y and WA, were stated as minimum, but also RS did hint somewhere previously that those figures were indeed more open ended at the upper end. ie, the figures they gave for the arbitration being the minimum sought, were based on provable value of the assets, and likely didnt add too much upside for the loss of opportunity to expand production and prove up the full value of agf2 etc.
not wanting to open a can of worms for the debators amongst us, but i see downside from the $480mill (agf) as being very limited, but upside could infact be huge.
could we have been extracting 300,000 oz at say $1200 ($800 profit)?.....giving profits of $240mill per annum (at todays $1200 supressed price).

if you start looking down that route, you can see how rapidly the valuation increases...it could eclipse the $480mill quite easily.
OXS really couldve been a ftse listed £Bill+ gold producer.

apfindley
12/10/2015
17:36
Folk could consider the distressed Chinese offer to seek a valuation



Jan 2010 Chinese valuation $257m*
(straight line basis from $185m=72% to 100%)



*Excludes Khandiza Project
(already expropriated from Marakand)

giant steps
12/10/2015
17:21
Also, forgot to mention that capex is part of the dcf calculation anyway, which is what the e&y calculation includes
wulber
12/10/2015
17:13
OrgasmicbeefI agree difficult to quantify fairly.In my mind the cost from misappropriation are three fold for Oxus:1. Capex minus revenue received at point of closure.2. DCF of production from misappropriation to date.3. Opportunity cost of profits for the life of the mine.That in my mind is what is lost when arbitration is settled by Oxus.Then apply a % discount for a settlement.
wulber
12/10/2015
17:01
Orgasmic - "It's a complex legalistic problem all to do with the evidence and logic of the science of conjecture in each case." Add in how they'd quantify the creeping expropriation from years before the Force Majeure - also perhaps some dodgy dealing on our part, given that corruption is rife and bribes will probably have been needed for almost everything down to a telephone connection, and you see how the panel will have had their work cut out to reach anything like a fair and just decision. I should imagine they will have been praying every night that the two sides get together and agree a settlement so they didn't have to unravel this bag 'o worms themselves!
99jeremiah
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