Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[marmar80] 03/10/2015 02:49

translator required

[a.fewbob] 03/10/2015 01:09

hxxps://inves2day.wordpress.com/2015/03/12/oxus-gold-oxs-arbitration-vs-uzbekistan/

I found this which outlines things pretty well.

[a.fewbob] 03/10/2015 00:33

Ok, sounds good.

Be a good chap and have it on my desk first thing Monday morning ;0)

[loverat] 02/10/2015 23:58

LOL

You provide me with an expert on OXS and its past operations and an actuary I might have a go. I never like giving predictions except if there is a sweepstake competition.

From what I know about the company and the approach the tribunal has applied in other czses, I am more confident however. Perhaps I maight do some more reading over the weekend and post some stuff and let you know what I think would be in the range of 'fair'.

[a.fewbob] 02/10/2015 21:29

Loverat,

Wow that was really lazy!

At the very least you could give us an abridged synopsis of all that you have read and an opinion of what a "fair" award might be!!!

Slacker!

[loverat] 02/10/2015 19:44

Some interesting posts today. I periodically pop in and do some research on this and usually then concentrate on my other stocks. I was having another good read through some of the posts and links today.

I have always thought that OXS would win on merits. The long delay also suggests that the tribunal is concentrating on quantum. Not having a detailed knowledge of how this arbitration scheme works I have always been very cautious of the size of any award. I think there was a conversation on here some time back where some, including myself were urging general caution and saying that for example, courts do not always reach the right decisions for various reasons or award fair compensation.

Anyway I have been reading back through orgasmic beef's posts tonight and I might encourage others to do the same and perhaps read some of the comments and links to other cases for comparision purposes and the approach taken. Some of the cases are very interesting although very long.

Orgasmic beef seems to have a goood knowlegde of how this tribunal operates and has confidence in the system to reach a fair result.

Having waded through this stuff again today I am much more confident that assuming OXS win an award it will be within the range of what is fair. Not over generous perhaps but fair and consistent with other cases. I think OXS will get a sizeable award which should be multiples of the current SP, less of course the deductions mentioned here.

Good luck all and happy reading.

[jungmana] 02/10/2015 18:32

975k and 500k buys there at end of day :-)

[loverat] 02/10/2015 18:07

orgasmicbeef

Very interesting case. Particularly on the arguments over valution methods - e.g sunk costs as argued by Bolivia and one based on reserves and future cashflows as argued by the claimant.

It seems the tribunal agreed with the claimant and awarded 48million USD.

It would be interesting to see a comparision between the two companies on these factors.


'Third, the Claimants contend that Bolivia's proposed valuation method does not assess the FMV of the investment nor does it restore the Claimants to the
position they would have been in had the unlawful act not occurred. Citing
Ripinsky and Williams, the Claimants submit that it is wrong to assume that the
historic cost of an investment reflects its market value.

In addition, the sunk costs method is inappropriate because "it pretends to put the Claimants in the position they would have been in if the investment had never occurred. [...] Yet the investment did take place, it did produce profits, and it would have continued on that path had it not been for Bolivia’s wrongful acts."


344.
The Tribunal notes that the DCF method is widely accepted as the appropriate
method to assess the FMV of going concerns with a proven record of profitability. The World Bank Guidelines on the Treatment of Foreign Direct Investment, cited by both Parties,suggest that the market value of an expropriated investment may be determined "for a going concern with a proven record of profitability, on the basis of the discounted cash flow value."
This approach has been endorsed by a large number of investment tribunals'.

[tburns] 02/10/2015 18:06

Thanks for this link Nick, this notice is dated 7th Sep 2015, less than 1 month ago. I wonder if she has written this in response to debate amongst the arbitration panel about the calculation of quantum for OXUS. You know what they say about coincidence of timing....

[99jeremiah] 02/10/2015 17:34

16p/17p? - Lay it on me Mama! :-)

[broncowarrior] 02/10/2015 17:31

Remember, we need to win on the facts before the award is discussed.

[dr darkstar] 02/10/2015 17:28

When we clear 6p its all the way to 16/17p for resistance ......

[nick2412] 02/10/2015 17:10

In a rather long-winded way Prof Stern seems to be saying she disagrees with companies in international arbitration having the right to choose an award based on either the date of expropriation or the current value (date of award). She seems to be making the case that an award should only be calculated based on the value of the assets etc. on the date of expropriation.

In the case of Oxus that will probably suit shareholders as the award is likely to be higher if the date of expropriation is taken as the basis for deciding quantum.

So, on that basis, it's hard to see Prof Stern dissenting on this point. That said, with a sceptic hat on, she was appointed by the Uzbeks and if anyone dissents it's likely to be her. It might also explain why the time to the decision release is somewhat extended beyond the original expectations of OXS.

Fingers crossed, touch wood etc for a decent award in the, er, very near future!

[pug151] 02/10/2015 16:49

More of a cake on the cherry surely.

[orgasmicbeef] 02/10/2015 16:48

This is the case to which the Stern opinion refers, worth a read to see the similarities and Lalonde also on the panel!

hxxp://www.italaw.com/sites/default/files/case-documents/italaw4389.pdf

[the stigologist] 02/10/2015 16:48

Expect real fireworks next week. Chart is beautifully poised and it shouldn't take too much volume for RAB overhang to clear. So two major reasons for a moonshoot higher.

That is even absent an Award RNS which would be the cherry on the cake.

[pug151] 02/10/2015 16:45

Uncrossing trade

[edgein] 02/10/2015 16:36

decent buy at the close 975k 3.8p U trade and another 200k both timed at 4:35.

Regards,
Ed.

[loverat] 02/10/2015 16:26

So, exactly what is Stig saying?

1) Award of 1.2 billion plus.
2) Prospect of 'punitive damages'
3) Various other nonsense conspiracy theories.

Let's hope tivoliworldgaming has not based his decision on the above. I think perhaps he is being tongue in cheek however.

tivoliworldgaming 2 Oct'15 - 16:06 - 2896 of 2897 0 0

Stig has always been right, as if I listened to him I be 3 grand better off.
Oxus will proove how we all should of listened to him and I am trying to sell most my holdings to put it all into Oxus.
I really can see a win but its a gamble.

[coley15] 02/10/2015 16:19

no and no - IMO

[the stigologist] 02/10/2015 16:19

thanks tivoli it is nice to hear some people willing to admit such heresy :-p


tivoliworldgaming 2 Oct'15 - 16:06 - 2896 of 2897 0 0

Stig has always been right, as if I listened to him I be 3 grand better off.
Oxus will proove how we all should of listened to him and I am trying to sell most my holdings to put it all into Oxus.
I really can see a win but its a gamble.

[lithological heterogeneities] 02/10/2015 16:18

will we see an after hours RNS?

[blueblood] 02/10/2015 16:17

Can we make a 4p close?