Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[loverat] 03/10/2015 15:30

rossannan

I appreciate this may have been discussed before and you have posted links etc but might be useful to see evidence of this.

If you have identified some cases where the period since the hearing has been as long as this and resulted in a negative outcome for the claimant on merits, please post them. If you have researched this, I am sure one or two will come to mind and you can post the links.

[dave444] 03/10/2015 15:27

You have changed your tune a number of times over the last year to which a number of people have suspected you deal in and out.
Your only example of note re length of time since decision and somebody losing was shown to be completely irrelevant to this case as it involved a fictitious calculation based on no reality whereas OXS has clear physical assets that were stolen.

[jaf1948] 03/10/2015 14:57

Papillion,

Thanks for the details - that makes it much clearer that the circumstances are not identical.

[dave444] 03/10/2015 14:57

You sound like a man that has sold out

[loverat] 03/10/2015 14:43

rossannan

I don't think it was wishful thinking in particular - unlike many of the posts I have read here.

Without anyone here really having a detailed insight into the workings of the tribunal or other arbitration schemes, it is just a logical conclusion to reach.

Of course there are precendents. As you have indicated it is likely there will also be prececents where a negative decision has been issued more quickly.

However, I think I recall Giant Steps quoting the average times for a decision to be reached after a hearing - OXS being quite lengthy compared to others. I might have also read something about further information being submitted by the parties after the hearing?

Anyway, the theory which has been posted here before is that if there was an issue over jurisdiction or the merits were clearly in favour of the respondent, would it take this long? The long period which has passed could be because quantum has been considered and has been extremely difficult to assess. If you read that decision posted here yesterday, alot of time obviously went into that.

The logical guess is that if this amount of time has passed without a decision, it stands to reason that some obstacles such as jurisdiction and some merits considerations are likely to have been dealt with. It also seems likely that the tribunal would not spend time on quantum in detail if the case fails on merits.

So, in the context of the information posted on this thread and discussion here, which is largely speculative, no one knowing the full workings of the tribunal, I think it is a valid point.

Of course it goes without saying that everyone should be prepared for possible outcomes which are not so favourable. I guess we will know soon enough.

[papillon] 03/10/2015 14:43

O/T. JAF1948. RUR were claiming a maximum of circa US$142m. The UNCITRAL arbitration panel awarded circa US$35m (a quarter of what they were claiming) and they accepted circa US$31m from Bolivia for rapid payment because they were desperate for cash to repay their Birdsong loan (which was increasing because of interest payments). They paid off the Birdsong loan of circa US$25m so RUR only cleared US$6m!!

If OXS received only a quarter of their (maximum) US$1250m claim then that would be circa US$300m. If Calunius took a maximum of US$75m (doubt if it would be that much) then that would leave OXS with US$225m. About £150m. Around 23p per share (after CLN conversion).

I believe OXS will get more than US$300m and I don't believe Calunius will take as much as US$75m.

Hence I'm looking for at least 20p for the OXS share price following the arbitration verdict and hopefully much more. Fingers crossed.

[pennys2pounds] 03/10/2015 14:13

I'm afraid I disagree. The longer the case goes on does increase the possibility of a win for Oxus. Ok - they could still lose and you talk about 'precedents' but in reality no one here would be invested if they have done thorough research and understood the case.

I have done plenty and am VERY confident of a win of at least $400m to Oxus.

Each to their own but if you belive this is still a 50/50 gamble then you haven't done enough research OR have another motive.

[wallyjumblat] 03/10/2015 14:04

A few negative posts creeping in here based on what though, this case is on its own and I would like to see some evidence or examples from posters of why Oxus wont get the range of award stated. I would also suggest that RS knows more than anybody on this BB and that every statement he puts out will have been scrutinised and dissected by our Legal Team.

IMHO this company is going to set AIM on fire "STANDBYE STANDBYE"

[goodbloke1] 03/10/2015 14:03

Is there a chance Oxs will be given back the assets but no cash instead?

[loverat] 03/10/2015 13:49

rossannan
3 Oct'15 - 12:37 - 24487 of 24491 1 1

Loverat - 02 Oct 2015 - 19:44 - 24477 of 24485 - 6
...

I have always thought that OXS would win on merits. The long delay also suggests that the tribunal is concentrating on quantum.

Loverat

No, it doesn't. The precedents make it clear that we can still wait this long and see Oxus lose entirely, or at least see nothing for the shareholders.




Of course that CAN happen and no doubt there are precedents. I am saying it is less likely to happen all this time after the hearing. Reading back through some of the posts made by those who have researched also seem to agree.

[jaf1948] 03/10/2015 13:24

Indeed. As a shareholder in Rurelec (RUR), I can speak from bitter experience. The share price was about 10p when the award was made, spiked very briefly to 14p then the reality set in that, after costs and expenses, the company made nothing out of the award. Their current share price is 1.5p.

So winning in itself isn't enough.

[merlin55] 03/10/2015 12:44

But why would it take this long to come to that conclusion BarnetPeter.

[barnetpeter] 03/10/2015 12:40

I wonder if Oxus could win but get nothing back? Possible I guess???

[jungmana] 03/10/2015 12:34

Is my opinion that $300m is a very realistic award. Anything less is unfair to OXS .Will all be known soon :-)

[orgasmicbeef] 03/10/2015 10:24

Loverat
Thanks, just trying to be very factual and realistic with solid research. My valuation [3 ways] give shareholders fair value IMO. DCF, Resource value JORC in the ground, option to mine B&S.
Best of luck, can't be long now.