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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford Biomedica Plc | OXB | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 420.00 | 16:35:15 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 415.00 | 415.00 | 423.50 | 420.00 | 420.00 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| PHARMACEUTICALS & BIOTECHNOLOGY |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 16/12/2024 08:41 by xoptimist It would be lovely to get a Christmas present from OXB in the form of a positive update before year end but I think its much more realistic to expect an update via RNS on 2024 results and 2025 guidance somewhere between the third week of January and the second week of February. Whilst its true that Lucy will already have a fairly solid idea of 2024 revenues it will take a bit more time to be able to give a reliable ebitda figure (which we know will be negative). I also think Frank and Lucy will want to interrogate Seb robustly on the 2025 sales pipeline and have as much time as possible before they have to pin their colours to a mast with a revenue number for 2025.I think we can all be fairly confident that the company has made its revenue guidance numbers for 2024 and probably at the higher end of the guidance range. It has missed Stuart's April forecast of more or less break even as cash burn has been higher than anticipated - but hopefully ebitda will be negative by no more than single digit millions. I also think we can be confident that we are going to have a great 2025 and I believe revenue guidance will be at least GBP170-180m and with a return to profitability. So by this time next year revenues should have doubled in 24 months. Finally I think we can expect that the 3 year rolling forward guidance will be re-based on the 2024 numbers and so forward 3 year CAGR will fall from 35% to 25-30% but with early forecasts for 2026 revenues of ca GBP225m. So many potential OXB investors are waiting in the wings to see Frank hit the first year of his recovery guidance and once that is in the bag (and profitability close by) I would think this news should be worth at least 100-150p on the share price taking us to the mid to high 500s by February and hopefully drifting into the 600s by the time of the annual results presentation in April. And so back into the FTSE250 maybe in Q2 but definitely in Q3. For the many of us here who have hoped the company would develop a much better PR/IR/Comms strategy with a steady flow of news to keep investors engaged and excited - I think that we are going to have to accept that won't happen and in the words of someone in this community our Comms people are going to continue to be noticeable by their resounding silence. As such we are going to have to depend on the quarterly updates - which hopefully will be formalised into a transparent and regular reporting calendar which follow the quarters: end of Jan/end of April/end of July/end of October - and which will be essential as the company looks more to the US investment commnunity. And we are going to have to depend on continuing to play Cluedo sleuthing around (as Harry does so brilliantly) the tidbits of information we are given but always guessing and never sure of exactly what game is afoot. As such we should maximise opportunities to interrogate and question the management team whenever we have the opportunity to do so. And otherwise practice what for me is always difficult - patience. In the meantime as the year draws to a close may I thank all of you in this OXB community who have helped to educate and entertain me this year and wish you all a fabulous festive season. Happy holidays. |
Posted at 11/12/2024 13:40 by takeiteasy "stagnated share price this year" - I think looking over the course of the year we are up c.106%, so we have plenty of gains from investors arguably still being sold through holding up more recent progress - but chart still looks strong imvho |
Posted at 04/12/2024 16:07 by harry s truman It's very difficult to second guess these things on information available to us Gareth, but I do know that OXB spend quite a bit of time & effort on their sales pitch to much larger investors than us. Could easily be someone from the Jefferies conference who liked what they heard and have been buying a few since. Could easily be many other things too.Separately, I become more convinced by the day that Novo have made a top level decision to use some of their enormous cash pile to build a manufacturing empire which will rival Lonza, Samsung and such. If you think about it then currently Novo have a huge number of eggs in diabetes and weight loss (which are very closely related). If they want to do something strategic by way of future insurance (i.e. mitigate against being a Kodak with their eggs in the camera film basket) then building an empire of being a very technical service provider to others is quite a good idea. You know my thoughts on how they can get a running start to be the leading C> CDMO. |
Posted at 30/11/2024 09:55 by harry s truman takeiteasy,Honest opinion, I would have thought not. There *may* be an unintended effect here of OXB being held in an effective closed period because of something which our major shareholder *might possibly* be currently doing, but pick your own odds on that. There could easily be other explanations of why not a single OXB insider has bought shares since Novo bid for Catalent. Personally, I think there is something going on, but I'm guessing based around what little is in the public domain. Re OXB's 3 year trial by ordeal, then I would say where we are today is much more likely to be a pick and mix of this:- 1) Covid gave and it took away. OXB was saved by being one of the 11 bulk suppliers of the Oxford University vaccine for AZ. That brought us enough money to ride this out. 2) Covid put everything non-essential on hold - so all our previous work went away with all our public partners put on hold, with the exception of Novartis which was an approved drug and so essential work. Maybe you remember the stat, but c87% of our bioprocessing work was for AZ. 3) When that stopped abruptly for political reasons the market reacted accordingly as we lost that work whilst our previous work was still on hold in an industry battered by pandemic emergency measures. 4) Whilst limping out of this with (very fortunately) the vaccine manufacturing cash windfall, OXB took the best advice available which was that post pandemic they couldn't just rely on being "the LentiVector company" and needed a foot in the bigger market of AAV. 5) That was addressed by buying the AAV rights and manufacturing facilities from Homology medicines in a deal which would cost us over 180m USD, but was sweetened a lot by the continuing work in supporting Homology's pipeline. Homology then went out of business and that work was lost. We still have to pay them the final 10% in about 4 months, but fortunately it is now very little. 6) So, our pre-pandemic regular work (which was mostly LV) is finally back now and the Homology situation has been turned around with new AAV customers and the US plant being expanded into a LV hub, but that has been 3 years of walking through treacle whilst carrying an elephant and the markets don't like that. 7) It took us c20 years to break into the midcap (FT250) index, with the better visibility / coverage that brings. It took us only a couple of years to get booted out again, mainly thanks to meddling politicians and the covid fiasco explained above. 8) This is why my sole hope / target / goal for this year (it's in a January post if you want to check) was to get back into the FT250, because in small cap very few people (other than PIs like us) look or follow. So all the big investors will remember us falling away after covid, but won't know anything else - unless they happen to listen to Frank at Jefferies or JPM out of the other 40 presentations that day. 9) Happily money does talk and companies sell on forward earnings. We know that the mid guidance for the year we are 11 months into is £130m and that next year will be more than 35% better. If it's c£180m then that's our record revenue year by close to £40m and OXB say they will return to profit. Two big things there and a CDMO which turns over £180m and makes a profit is not a small cap stock - so that should resolve itself this year if nothing else overtakes us first. |
Posted at 27/11/2024 12:06 by supernumerary It's noise - 'volatile' is the name of the thread, not the poster, and it's only 2 posts, neither worth bothering with imo:----- Now 414p My Bep 788p . A low of 167p in December 23 and again March 2024. Would of been a great buy on those lows . Hope for all my other AIMS ----- It’s always hard to find bottom ! How many times did people average down when this was dropping from £15 to £1.60 ish thinking it couldn’t go any lower. I’m back in again with a modest punt and see where it goes. Just think how much those big investors have lost over the last couple of years and they are supposed to know what they are doing… there’s a lot of blind luck… |
Posted at 25/11/2024 12:47 by dominiccummings You're effectively saying the same thing icejelly. The investors that matter don't yet know what OXB is, and how to categorise it. |
Posted at 22/11/2024 18:51 by hopesprings Current culture is to incentivise everyone from the receptionist upwards. No bad thing if it makes the worklplace a happy place, builds cohesion and leads to the delivery of results.Our problem as private investors, with major shareholders dominating the register,is to have a voice which is even noticed. Personal experience 25 years ago from the other perspective is that we are like a flea on the rear flanks of a rhino - an irritant tht can be humoured or swatted whenever required. Woke regulation will ensure that - when appropriate - we are acknowledged, but sadly otherwise that's it. Frank doesn't really care a flying Frank about the smaller shareholder. He's not paid to. So we have to recognise that the private investor's voice is only loud in regulatory circumstances. Otherwise we hardly count. Sorry to be downbeat. Mr President bangs the drum so very effectively about the value within this business. Reticence from management doessn't help. |
Posted at 04/11/2024 10:27 by takeiteasy Not impossible - interesting just how few firms from the health sector are linked to FTSE 250...look at the big investors in this area e.g. Mercantile IT close to zero investment in this sector and as you look at all the other names it follows a very similar pattern.We need firms like OXB to build a strong and stable franchise that develops some level of dull and boring predictability that the institutional investors would be looking for using their so called " data screens" based on investment output stats on risk and return and market cap data. This share seems so thinly traded that it takes a small puff of wind to more the dial up thank goodness near term so we do not need a huge push from bigger IIs but do hope later into 2025 that all the IR push we are making towards this cohort starts to show up a bit more. Getting back over 430 today may bring back the momentum crowd...wdik.. |
Posted at 07/10/2024 15:36 by philh75 It does seem suspicious when a large volume of shares is traded—like the 600k shares and yet the price remains static at £3.85. This could indicate some deliberate action or unusual market dynamics. Here are a few possible explanations for what might be happening:1. Market Maker Activity • Market makers (or large institutional players) could be trying to keep the stock price at £3.85 for various reasons. Market makers provide liquidity and are often involved in large trades behind the scenes. They can control the price by absorbing both buying and selling pressure to keep the price stable, especially if there’s an agreement to prevent significant volatility. 2. Accumulation Without Affecting Price • Someone could be accumulating shares at this price without wanting to trigger a price increase. By managing the trades carefully, the buyer might avoid pushing the price higher while still building a position. This tactic is common if an investor expects future news or growth but wants to buy as much as possible at a low price without alerting the broader market. 3. Order Book Manipulation • It’s possible there are large sell orders placed around the £3.85 mark to create resistance. This can be done by traders or institutions that want to prevent the price from rising for a specific reason, such as preparing for a large short position or to complete their buying at a low level. 4. Consolidation Phase • The stock may be going through a consolidation phase where both buyers and sellers are evenly matched, leading to a narrow trading range around £3.85. During this phase, the price stays flat despite heavy trading, as buyers and sellers balance each other out. This often happens before a breakout, either up or down, once one side takes control. 5. Pending News • If there is major news expected soon (such as a partnership announcement or earnings release), some investors may be positioning themselves in anticipation, while others may be holding back, creating a temporary standoff. Market makers or insiders with better knowledge of the situation may try to control volatility until the news is made public. In summary, while it may seem frustrating to see no price movement despite a high trading volume, it could be part of a larger strategy by institutional players or market makers to keep the stock price at a specific level for the time being. If there’s no major movement soon, it might be a sign that something significant is coming, or the stock is gearing up for a breakout once these constraints are lifted. |
Posted at 27/9/2024 14:32 by steeplejack I don’t have great confidence in technical analysis.Charts can be useful,afterall every picture tells a story but i question their predictive capabilities.I’One of the most satisfying aspects of investment is spotting recovery situations.So much financial commentary goes towards the big cap momentum trades ie whether one should be chasing the Nvidias or Novos but a bombed out oversold stock can easily double in short order without much acclaim.OXB has done just that in the last 12 months and averaging has enabled me to get into profit.As Brucie comments,nowadays with momentum trading etc,its easy enough to join the feeding frenzy surrounding the more fashionable trades .The difficulty is knowing when to jump ship and sell.I don’t think most investors are very good at knowing when to sell,i know i’m not and when you have the added complication of capital gains tax,its not always a level playing field,other considerations interfere.Of course,you should never fall in love with a stock,it can cloud your judgement.However,we here are all major beneficiaries of Harry’s love of OXB. |
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