Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[marcusl2] 10/5/2024 15:47

The STING agonist IMSA101 enhances chimeric antigen receptor T cell function by inducing IL-18 secretion

[boadicea] 10/5/2024 14:18

Relatively quiet since the last of the million-plus days on 7th May.
However, the price remains fairly steady; no large retrace - implying that buyers are waiting to take up trader's profit selling. It has not yet formed a significant characteristic pennant and may not be given time to do so.

If next news is good (odds on that), those waiting on the sidelines hoping for a test of a floor (at 300p?) may all rush to get in, reigniting momentum. Then, beyond 400p, thoughts of 350/250 inclusion will begin to beckon.

[dominiccummings] 10/5/2024 10:32

I don't have access to trade details but I suspect we are now in a pattern where each morning we get a big deal that they have to pay a premium for followed by a number of small sellers taking the share price down.

[harry s truman] 10/5/2024 10:04

Surely we all know the answer to that one? Big news.

Nobody needs the full history of OXB to know that they were battered by the coronavirus pandemic restrictions on trials, because most of their customers were either working from home (i.e. not working) or had their trials put on hold because the hospital beds which need to be on standby for trials were reserved for covid.

Happily that is consigned to history now and will hopefully never be repeated.

We know from what Stuart has previously told us that OXB's costs for everything are somewhere around £130m per year.

Sales of around that and we roughly breakeven. Anything above that and our EBITDA margin rises ever upwards until we hit full capacity. So better than 20% on 2026 revenue and maybe eventually 30+%.

A couple of minor problems for small shareholders here are that OXB have told us for over a year now that they aren't routinely going to announce normal sized contract wins anymore - unless the customer specifically wants to.

(and)

They will instead keep us up to date with regular updates on this KPI table, but without actually telling us where and when we will get to see it.

So not for the first time we are in a position where all seems good (very good in fact), but we have to trust that it actually is going as OXB have told us (which it should be).

Out of the ordinary (i.e. big) news would help a lot, not just because it changes all previous guidance, but because the last paragraph of any RNS like that is usually a mini trading update on everything else.

Are we due something like that with the directors not buying? Probably. Will it happen sooner rather than later? Probably. Are biotech deal timeframes very long? For a big deal definitely.

I can only repeat my experience of the original Novartis tie-up. That was excitement on prospects, then impatience and repeat, with the price up and down accordingly. Eventually that got us to about £10 pre-covid (remember that much smaller company is no France, no Boston and only a handful of contracts) then covid changes everything (knocked us right down to £3(ish), built us up to £16(ish), knocked us right back down to £3(ish) again) meanwhile 6,000+ people with no previous hope got the Novartis treatment thanks to OXB.

You will have worked out long ago that I think the key to market success for OXB investors is getting back into the FTSE250. That seems to guarantee more of everything - more news coverage in the papers, more broker interest, more institutions who can buy (some in the trackers have to) and so on - and I'm convinced that eventually OXB will get there.

When? I don't know. My target is this year, but it might need the interim results showing that all is well and on track first. Meanwhile a lot of small investors are likely to have got fed up and sold (again).

Next index review is the end of this month but to double the price in 3 weeks would take some epic news. Could a really big deal (big enough for OXB to be in a closed period and big enough for them to have to announce because of changed guidance) do that in such a short time when OXB are in this sandwich year here between loss and profit?

I'm sure it's possible. Will it happen in the next 3 weeks? No idea.

[marcusl2] 09/5/2024 21:11

Besides the potential detriment to drug access as a result of an immediate severance from Chinese CDMOs, industry respondents estimated that it would take up to eight years to switch manufacturing partners, according to a copy of BIO’s report obtained by Fierce Pharma.

[harry s truman] 09/5/2024 19:51

Just for interest:-



Key takeaway 5 -

While the legislation is only under consideration at this point, given the strong bipartisan support for the bill and concerns from the national security community, it is expected that some form of the bill will become law in 2024.

OXB webcast Final question:-

Miles Dixon Question - Thank you and then secondly, if I could ask, I think it was Sébastien that mentioned about biotech still being difficult. I was just wondering if it was too early to see yet or if you are in fact seeing any new emerging pen profile of potential clients given the challenges at WuXi? Thank you.

Dr. Sébastien Ribault Answer - I have not personally been exposed to anyone coming to us and saying we absolutely want to leave competition and we want to work with you because of US political reasons, to put it that way. Are there people concerned about the situation? The answer is yes. Are they looking for backup plans? The answer is yes. Since we're talking about a text that has not been voted yet, we're still talking about people looking for backup plans, but there's nothing that I would consider as an active discussion as of now.

[harry s truman] 09/5/2024 15:17

In a word, would that be stochastic? Cue the call my bluff theme tune ;)

To stay in the same groove on my stuck record here, I think this month will either be ok or brilliant. Yes, I realise that's a rain or go dark prediction, but the likelihood here is that we will either continue to bobble along with 2 forward & 1 back on what they have told us, or...

Something very significant for OXB will drop and at that point our guidance changes and so does the share price.

Might be malaria. As Plutonian pointed out a long time ago, J&J have had very public supply problems in meeting their commercial needs. BMS have also experienced similar woes. Literally too many possibilities to guess from, but OXB are now in a very happy position of being there for anyone (with money and a need of our services).

[rathean] 09/5/2024 14:58

It's important to see a distribution/ accumulation phase before the next leg up. There's no predicting SPs, probabilities suggest further pipe laying before the next move all imo dyor ofc.

[dr darkstar] 09/5/2024 14:44

My experience of broker targets is that they're rarely worth the paper they're written on. What I do know is that the third attempt at 350 and a close above that will move us significantly higher again

[harry s truman] 09/5/2024 13:53

A good news story there Marcus. There must be a huge amount of satisfaction for the people working in labs everywhere when something like this turns out to be a success.

It's a bit like the story with Emily (first child with the CAR-T linked to us of course) where she awakened out of the post-treatment storm reaction to the sound of the hospital staff all gathered around her bed and singing happy birthday to her.

You'd need a heart of stone not to have something in your eye after that one.

[steeplejack] 09/5/2024 11:55

Spreadbetting and CFD sites carry a health warning.Over 70 per cent of punters lose money.If you're going to actively trade,you are in effect taking on the MMs and proprietary traders.It can be expensive fun.

[takeiteasy] 09/5/2024 11:43

I admire folks who trade these shares - buy at the bottom at 3.15 run up to 3.40 go back short and then long again at 3.15 rinse and repeat. It takes a lot more skill, patience and time than a LTBH option that is my way here...

[steeplejack] 09/5/2024 10:32

Target prices were originally employed by US brokers servicing high net worth private clients.Over the years,this rather simplistic methodology,sneaked into the world of research prepared for institutions.The target prices invariably have a greater cognisance of where the existing share price is now than where the price might be in 18 months time.Hence,you get the Investec analyst who simply shifts his target up and down with OXBs price as it moves from £15 to £2.A far from useful exercise.The stock recommendation is clearly key but i've never seen much merit in price targets.They are a broker's marketing tool.

[harry s truman] 09/5/2024 09:43

I find it really odd that we can have joint corporate brokers (RBC and JPM) with respective recent 12 month targets of 740p and 305p.

My honest best stab at an explanation for that one is the smallcap syndrome, where at the moment we remain under the radar and probably not of great interest to JPM.

It's been mentioned / hinted at on here before that OXB likely only retain JPM because the JPM healthcare conference is the biggest / most prestigious and first of the season. It's also the one where you primarily present to investors rather than scientists / medics. Having JPM as joint broker seems to pretty much guarantee a speaking slot there.

[harry s truman] 09/5/2024 09:35

I'm sure you won't be alone Ch1ck, wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Brucie has done the same thing - but it's all fine and each to their own.

If I had sold at every high and bought at every low over the last 2 decades then I would be a very wealthy man, but I don't have that ability.

What you are essentially gambling against here is that the assumed looming big news which has stopped the directors buying isn't imminent. If it is then you will miss that gain with the strategy to make more.

[ch1ck] 09/5/2024 09:29

Sold 3/4 yesterday looking to buy back lower

[chillpill] 09/5/2024 08:40

Agree takeiteasy.

Talk is cheap and all that but by all accounts OXB have a dynamic team in place.

[takeiteasy] 09/5/2024 07:18

I think after all of the troubles over the past couple of years and collapsing SP, some brokers may take the view that they want to see 2 or 3 sequential reporting periods ticked off with steady progress before committing to a recommend /buy position.

Each may have their own research protocols to follow which we do not know the details so we can only surmise - but in pure numbers a 50% higher share price target seems to be in the right direction ...

[bigbigdave] 09/5/2024 07:10

JPMORGAN RAISES OXFORD BIOMEDICA PRICE TARGET TO 305 (210) PENCE - 'NEUTRAL'

[trickydicky1] 08/5/2024 22:26

I would imagine a bigger issue arising from Wuxi’s sanctioning might be a firming up of industry pricing

[harry s truman] 08/5/2024 20:15

Catalent are being bought out by NN to make their slimming drug for American compulsive eaters so probably looking in a different direction now.

Wuxi, well I'd imagine that they would be thrilled with Seb's 2 serious enquiries per week, but what if the US votes to put sanctions on them?

[trickydicky1] 08/5/2024 19:54

I wonder how many new CDMO clients are looking to place work with Catalent and Wuxi at the current time.

[harry s truman] 08/5/2024 17:56

Apologies for any confusion. I was simply giving the quote from '21 results which led to the story about building their UK footprint. The year following that MoU becomes the deal as below:-

Oxford Biomedica has signed a 10-year MSDA with Serum Life Sciences Ltd (Serum, a subsidiary of Serum Institute of India), for the manufacture of a variety of vaccine and protein-based therapeutic products. This agreement follows on from the Memorandum of Understanding agreed with Serum in 2021. The MSDA allows for Serum to access the Group’s Oxbox facility to manufacture a variety of vaccines at scales of up to 1,000L.

Serum is also able to secure exclusive access to one of the two new large scale multi 2,000L facilities in the second phase of Oxbox facility expansion for a period of 10 years from facility readiness. Serum will be required to commit to a minimum order value over the relevant period in order to secure exclusive access to the new
large-scale suite.