Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[icejelly] 02/4/2024 12:10

Meanwhile the FTSE 100 approached an all time high..

[harry s truman] 02/4/2024 11:59

19 working days Dom (assuming nothing is announced before).

I'm not trying to be flippant here, but my opinion remains that in a very poor and sceptical economy, OXB are doing as much as they can realistically do to keep us informed / reassured.

I can't ever remember a previous time when we were updated as frequently.

The probability here is that on the 29th we will see yet anther improvement in the situation. The difference with this one of course is that a lot more people take notice of results presentations than any other release of the year. It should get us some good press.

[dominiccummings] 02/4/2024 11:23

Same old same old
SP rises after open, then a couple of hours later (presumably) the seller comes in and down we go.
It will probably jump at the end of day as usual!

[harry s truman] 31/3/2024 21:23

I think you're maybe overcomplicating something regarding market share and missing the important point.

So the market share is irrelevant if you don't know what the market size is going to be (and these are all just predictions). All that matters is that OXB win enough work to keep their various facilities at capacity. Any more would only be going into the order book backlog anyway as they can only ever invoice for the amount of work they can theoretically complete within a financial year - regardless of how much is in the queue.

We were at (or very near) full capacity for early stage / upstream process development work in Oxford last year. We will not be at capacity yet for process development work in Boston or France.

We are not at capacity anywhere for later stage / downstream work.

We know our fixed costs must amount to something between £126m and £134m because that's the forecast for this year which Stuart says is roughly breakeven.

If you accept that all the regular bills are paid with that figure then any sales above that are straight to the bottom line (less materials and such).

We know that downstream is more lucrative (particularly commercial production) and so it's not just the overall margin climbing as work approaches capacity (all regions), it's the fact that downstream at capacity is worth more - but this lags upstream.

That better than 20% EBITDA margin by 2026 isn't their target margin, it's what they think the proportion of upstream / downstream work over breakeven is worth to them by 2026. Some big running / repeating orders downstream (particularly if they can find a use for the 1,000 litre bioreactors) and their margin will be much higher than 20% (maybe eventually twice as much).

[reddirish] 31/3/2024 12:48

Not at all meant to be precise and accurate, just a scoping to get an idea of where it might go. Guaranteed to be wrong!

[philh75] 31/3/2024 11:27

How are you calculating market share at 10%, as the market is expanding rapidly? I think p/s ratio is more relevant in a fast growth market like cgt cdmo’s?

[reddirish] 31/3/2024 09:49

A good point, that the market is as likely to take OXB above fair value just as easily as it has dragged it down below. My own thoughts on what that might be though are a touch lower! Taking the management forecasts for growth and margin could give EBITDA of around £50m for full year 2026. Market share (CGT CDMO only) would be around 10% at that point, so growth could still be good but a lot less than 35%. Let's say that continuing growth prompts a generous EBITDA valuation multiple of 12, and the market cap would be around £600m, so a share price of 600p. Getting to £10 and over would need a higher market share, with the greater scale giving higher margins: say sales of £350m+ and margins in the high 20s. To get a higher share price is possible, but would need cash flow from royalties on a number of successfully commercialised (billion dollar ) projects in addition to operating income.

[jezmundo] 30/3/2024 12:53

Its interesting, I can feel a deep longing and stressful hope amongst the long term holders, that this stock will rise very quickly. You have to be patient. A long time ago i aquired at 1 pound 35 pence.
I had the foresight to sell during covid at an average of 11 pound, I aquired again a few months ago at 2.30
OXB can be a good earner if you don't fall in love.

[marwalker] 30/3/2024 08:05

I'm afraid something of a retraction hereNow having checked the NHS site 100000 patients will have received treatment including Kymriah by April Very different from sloppy Sky version

[marwalker] 30/3/2024 07:41

And what an Easter present for sufferers

[marwalker] 30/3/2024 07:30

NHS has now funding to treat one hundred thousand cancer patients with KymriahLooks like OXB will be busy with Novartis work

[icejelly] 29/3/2024 22:26

When did it last happen?

[dominiccummings] 29/3/2024 15:56

#7446 It's true. We have a sign......

[philh75] 29/3/2024 15:37

I just checked my horoscope Dom and couldn’t believe it!

Aries: This week, the stars are aligning in a most peculiar pattern, reminiscent of a double helix, sparking cosmic giggles. As Mars moves into a jocular dance with Jupiter, it's clear the universe is in a playful mood. In this astral comedy club, your financial fortune is taking center stage. The cosmic punchline? It’s time to invest in Oxford Biomedica. Why, you ask? Because when the planets align like a string of cosmic pearls, it’s a sign to focus on biotechnology. Plus, let's be honest, the universe could use a bit more science and a bit less Mercury retrograde chaos. So, embrace the cosmic jest and let the stars guide your investment strategy. But remember, consult your financial advisor too—after all, they're your earthly guide in the cosmic comedy show of finance.

[dominiccummings] 29/3/2024 15:20

I would be more confident of a prediction by Russell Grant

[takeiteasy] 29/3/2024 14:45

Signal Update
Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY LONG. The previous BUY signal was issued on 21/03/2024, 7 days ago, when the stock price was 192.76. Since then OXB.L has risen by +4.27%.
Market Outlook
The bulls are in full control. The negative sentiment that led to the last bearish pattern has evaporated. The current price is quite distant from the confirmation level, so the probability of a bearish confirmation is very low. Besides, the signal is suggesting to STAY LONG. It is best to follow the signal and continue to hold this security. The Delayed Intraday Module is OFF.
Pattern Description
This pattern appears in an uptrend and warns that the trend will change. It consists of a white candlestick and a Doji with a gap up at the opening. If the Doji is in the form of an Umbrella the pattern is called “Bearish Dragonfly Doji”. In case of an Inverted Umbrella it is called “Bearish Gravestone Doji”. Here, all these patterns are subsumed under the name: “Bearish Doji Star”, regardless of the shape of the Doji. more...

if the bulls really are in full control I will be rather happy - no advice intended of course etc etc

[brucie5] 29/3/2024 10:58

Ha ha. But I think it is an unmistakably good sign on the chart, given the holding of the bottom, which otherwise should have broken downwards like CWR and ONT, my two comparator stories.
The W continues to play out and I see short term bowl to £3; never mind £4, which as we know would be a natural breathing station, just to return to quarter of the peak as well a the price put upon it by IM.

[dominiccummings] 28/3/2024 19:15

Only when someone rolls the rock away!

[harry s truman] 28/3/2024 18:17

Closing above £2 today is surely a sign that after Easter OXB shall rise again.

[pharmaboy3] 28/3/2024 13:59

Scancell just appointed WG partners as Joint broker .Same as OXB.Nice coincidence HTTps://wgpartners.co.uk/transactions/

[harry s truman] 28/3/2024 13:11

A little under 40k shares traded as I type (which is very low by recent norms).

Does this mean our latest seller has finished or just gone away for Easter?

[harry s truman] 27/3/2024 23:56

Appreciate your points there Dom (jesting and not), but I would imagine the implementation on the ground is the biggest single hurdle.

Some of these countries are enormous, with little in the way of infrastructure outside of the big cities. Just getting the vaccine there must be a logistical nightmare, then you need the medics to do it, set up a temporary centre, then try to get everybody in the surrounding area to make their way in if they have kids in the age range. Then repeat.

The money is much easier to sort out. The WHO, UNICEF, GAVI and such all rely on aid money from the wealthier countries. I'm sure strings can be attached. I'm equally sure some of the Gates fortune has gone into GAVI and in particular the attempt to irradiate malaria.

In time they will sort it out (an army of medics on the ground and a plan to distribute all the boosters) and at that point they will need much more product on a regular basis.

[dominiccummings] 27/3/2024 21:02

No hurry? Maybe it is because there are negotiations behind the scenes to include an American company. Difficult to include one as they are pricing the vaccine too low to be attractive to, oh, say, Pfizer.
(All in my imagination).

[harry s truman] 27/3/2024 21:01

The comments there on that page Phil (which I'm sure you have read) cover all the relevant points.

During covid they overreacted very badly for a disease where anyone with an even slightly enquiring mind could work out that it was never as dangerous as they said. One example being the quarantined cruise ships which were perfect experiments, but there were many examples where the claimed rates and statistics simply couldn't have been true.

Real doctors (especially epidemiologists) were either ignored or subjected to character assassination and now we have a whitewash which will find that everybody who seized power like it was their destiny really just did their best.

Malaria is the biggest killer of all time, it disproportionately affects young kids, but we don't have it in western countries and so the response now a vaccine is here will be nothing like it was for covid where the average UK victim was 83 and already had 4 or more existing comorbidities.

I understand Professor Hill's frustration but he is dealing with politicians who will be just as useless with this as they are with everything else.