Here is a potentially interesting one. OXB I’ve put a link on LinkedIn posting live from the advanced therapies Congress in London, with pictures of their stand but also a screenshot of the presentation of the “Cartitude” trial. Why would they include that in a post if they were not involved? Unless just industry interest? This is the Janssen & Legend Biotech’s BCMA-directed CAR-T therapy for multiple myeloma |
 from a panmure note in november:
XB no longer releases information on specific customers or programmes. It has a longstanding manufacturing relationship with Novartis (since 2014), which has been extended multiple times. OXB manufactures the lentivirus used in Kymriah and is also involved in multiple other programmes within the Novartis portfolio. We believe this includes PHE885 (a BMCA-directed CAR-T therapy), YTB323 (an autologous CAR-T therapy), all of which would be included in OXB’s early-stage portfolio. Both of these products use Novartis’ T-charge manufacturing approach, which is both faster, preserves T-cell ‘stemness̵7; and is expected to enable lower dosing. Historically OXB has also announced agreements with BMS (through an agreement with Juno, which was acquired by Celgene, in turn acquired by BMS in 2019), Boehringer Ingelheim, Cabaletta Bio, Beam Therapeutics, Immatics, Orchard and Arcellx. Of the later stage programmes within these partners which are likely to be using OXB services we have identified two – BMS-986393, a CAR-T programme in the BMS portfolio which is expected to commence Phase 3 in early 2025 and antio-cel from Arcellx which commenced a Phase 3 trial in Autumn 2023.In addition, we believe the second commercial programme, is Abcema, a CAR-T cell therapy for multiple myeloma which had its approval expanded by the FDA in March 2024, when OXB announced it had signed a new contract with an undisclosed US biotechnology company for the manufacture of lentiviral vectors as the client prepares for launch of a multiple myeloma product. |
Well, this time 3 weeks today and I imagine quite a few more posts by now - where we'll all either be rather pleased with the RNS or still no clue as to what has stopped them buying shares for so long. |
Hopefully Gareth we are now on target to swing high, rather than swing low swee........ |
A few more days like today and we will all be happy! |
Please don't mention sweet chariots Sir. |
Rothschild I think. Warren and Charlie far more likeable characters, but they wouldn't be buying OXB at this point. Peter Lynch? I think he might have been tempted by the situation and had a dabble if you brought it to his attention, but most of these superstars would never look in smallcap because some enormous reward does not even register a blip in the overall fund performance so not worth the effort for the reward.
Read Charlie and (to pick 2 stocks here he did / didn't buy) - 1) was that he should have bought more Coca Cola earlier and seen that the company was run differently whilst holding them forever - and - 2) he accepted that not buying Walmart when they were offered a chunk of new shares for expansion cash was a gift which would have returned him and Warren $10bn had they done it and held (they turned the offer down).
Wasn't Boadicea a queen Gareth? Famous for some of the earliest references to lady drivers with that chariot business? |
It wasn't Warner Brothers Boadecia, they did "that's all folks". Only joking. Good post Sir. |
Don't expect news - OXB prefers to grow in the dark, like a mushroom.
It's interesting to note that there is still enough money in the market to respond to a company that surprises to the upside. This happened today with CCC, which had a rough start with order delays in 1H24, then lost its briefly appointed CFO for an undisclosed reason. Clearly the doom was overdone and the price is now up about 25% this month on the full 2024 results and prospects. The turn around in OXB's fortunes should turn out to be much greater than that example with a correspondingly greater response - eventually!
I think it was WB (no doubt someone will correct me if wrong) that said the time to buy was when there was blood on the carpet. |
Looking at the chart, the selling has reduced dramatically. Onwards and upwards from here. Given the time since the last positive RNS, i expext some positive news prior to the yearly's, and a further announcement in conjunction. |
Certainly does seem the selling has stoppedLet's hope we really will get the Great Dénouement on the 9 th when all will be revealed |
Got up late and bought a fraction below £3 and knocked it over £3 for a second bite. |
You're old and wise enough to know the way this works Dom, but the market just goes from one extreme to the other.
To take just one example here (from the view of the market) OXB is soon going to move from the "fear" factor of "how much Boston is costing us" to the "greed" factor of "how much that US facility is going to bring in".
A lot of this does of course hinge on what Frank says 3 weeks on Wednesday, but the omens are good. |
So, can I take off my tin helmet Mr. President, Sir? |
I don't really like celebrating these things when we have been twice this price on the back of a single Novartis deal when we were a much smaller company with much less work, but this does look like back to the 300s and the end of our current seller now doesn't it?
Appreciate that similar things have been said / written many times before, but a good 2025 forecast 3 weeks on Wednesday should let us put this long spell in the doldrums behind us - for good this time. |
Classic example here Marcus of a situation which would be a sphincter moment for shareholders of drug discovery biotech OXB but is a future business opportunity for shareholders of pure CDMO OXB.
We know that somebody somewhere is always working on a better mousetrap. A tiny number of them succeed.
If this one makes it through trials and FDA review / approval then in '28 / '29 / '30 new owners AZ (who have taken a big punt on this) will have given the original shareholders the bigger conditional payments, but (drumroll) will also need someone to manufacture the important component parts at scale.
At that point (in fact long before) someone like Seb should have knocked on AZ's door and offered to help.
The bigger question for us (in the nearer term) is what BMS (our current but unannounced CDMO mm CAR-T partner) will do after seeing this on the horizon. I guess that at first they will simply watch, whilst trying to tie as many doctors / clinics to BMS as possible before the new kid arrives on the streets.
Final point, and I know this one is UK Gold stuff, but if OXB is a Novo Holdings company by then and part of the Catalent cell therapy division then Novo would be able to offer one stop for vector manufacture with OXB and cell processing within Catalent. |
OXB
TetraVectaTM system can also be used to accelerate the development and adoption of in vivo gene therapies (directly via intravenous injection or to a specific organ).
Harry and co. could tell you more as I have not been keeping up. |
Yes, In Vivo.
Drugmaker AstraZeneca said on Monday it will buy biotechnology firm EsoBiotec for up to $1 billion.
EsoBiotec's Engineered NanoBody Lentiviral (ENaBL) platform can genetically modify immune cells directly inside the body, allowing transformative cell therapy treatments in just minutes instead of the current process which takes weeks, AstraZeneca said. |
Any relevance for OXB? ThanksAstraZeneca PLC - AstraZeneca to acquire EsoBiotec #AZN @AstraZeneca HTTps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/f783277c-a9c8-4db2-a20e-8a04f74fd29c #voxmarkets |
I think the wind is with you with that one Gareth.
In your favour you have EBITDA profitability this year. Against you there is the appalling post covid economy and the fact that a lot of the big holders in OXB are trusts which are seeing pretty much constant withdrawals / redemptions and having to sell stocks to pay that.
Not intending to bring politics into this (honestly this is no dig) but when you have a Labour government seriously looking at benefit cuts and how to save money in their NHS, then we should all know that the economy is much worse than they let on and will be for a good while yet - maybe forever.
Back to OXB (which is why we are here) and Stuart told us almost a year ago now that OXB's costs were £140m. Nothing gets cheaper and we have recruited a lot of staff since then, but Frank has intimated (never actually said yet) that 2025 sales will be better than £173m and this is why we will be EBITDA profitable this year.
After tax, the loan interest, depreciation and such we won't be profitable, but it's still a big thing for us and shows the underlying business is sound.
I'd like it if they could do something with the loan (as that's £7m per year we could do without paying) but Oaktree are there to make money (just like us) so I imagine there isn't a way to part repay it early now that they plainly don't need a big amount for the last payment to Homology/Q32. Nothing we can do about that one.
My happy place here is that Frank, Stuart and Seb have all said in the past that we have many possibilities for the situation to turn to our favour quicker, which they are not pricing in (e.g. contracts looming, trials which may go BLA from P2 and such), so I am optimistic that things could easily be better than they are currently guiding.
Countering that we have the interims "reset" where they were guiding a lot more than £90m for FY 2023 literally the day before telling the analysts at the interims results that new figure without any previous visibility (to use one of their words). It will be a while before the covering analysts let them off the naughty step for that one.
This year's results should be the BMS story (assuming they allow OXB to talk about it) and a big name is always good publicity.
I have a feeling that OXB have much bigger plans for Boston than previously let on, but as soon as Boston is 100% OXB (this month) they will be free to spill the beans on that. I may be wrong here but if you read this regarding the lease (notes 6 & 10) we have an awful lot of space there now. Why would they take that on?
The USA is our biggest sales territory. The UK is becoming an increasingly difficult place to do business. France possibly even more regulations. USA is not only business friendly but the customers prefer to buy in the USA. It also gets around any difficulties with politics too.
So maybe the results will also bring a grander plan for Boston now that Homology / Q32 are out of the picture. Apologies for stating the obvious but if France was a no-brainer for EU protected work then surely the same is true of Boston for the US?
They told us that OXB made an EBITDA profit in the second half of 2024. That can only really mean 2 things :- that Oxford is doing so well it can carry Boston, or that Boston has enough non-Homology work now to be "nearly there".
Working backwards from that estimated final payment for the last 10% of Boston and using the formula previously given, it implies that it's actually Oxford doing very well. I actually prefer that option from the 2, because it gives an idea of what is on the table when Boston is running near full potential and Oxford isn't paying for it.
The future looks pretty good to me. The trouble is that OXB aren't talking / buying, the economy is dire and the analysts are still a little sore about being kept in the dark over the earnings reset last year. Other than that?
I still think the end game is Novo H and the only question on that is when / how much to bolt us on to Catalent. Something will trigger that - maybe profitability, maybe a certain revenue to justify the price, maybe Serum. We will see. |
Bought in again this afternoon, only 500 shares, no notification needed, I feel OXB are on the up, Spring is in the air and it's going to be a good rugby weekend (I particularly like like red). Good luck, pwb luc all LTH's. No advice intended especially on the rugby. |
Bristol Myers Squibb Receives Approval from the European Commission to Expand Use of CAR T Cell Therapy Breyanzi for Relapsed or Refractory Follicular Lymphoma
March 14, 2025
In the TRANSCEND FL trial, 97.1% of patients responded to Breyanzi , with 94.2% of patients achieving complete response*
Breyanzi demonstrated sustained clinical benefit, with 75.7% of patients still in response at 18 months, and a consistent safety profile with no new safety signals observed |
Does look like we may be coming off the bottom and the seller has cleared. Fingers crossed. |
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