Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[incanus] 01/10/2017 19:13

BB busy for a sunday evening.

[pglancy] 01/10/2017 19:11

marnweton, i havent the foggiest idea what you have said.

elrico, thanks for the reply i think i understand it. Patience was it. lol ok cool.

So there could be 10 nationals or not do you think?

[elrico] 01/10/2017 18:39

Nimrod - Are you accusing me of something sinisters? My comment is based on historical events and SOH being held to account for a blogger over egging expectations and timeframe and I thought we were in danger of repeating the same post Las Vegas, that is all.

Slarty - As previously stated, BOD are at various stages of negotiations with multiple companies. We were told draft contracts had been sent into the company very shortly after Vitafoods. SOH since stated; "Our strategy is to build multiple partnerships and the £3-6m is based on approx 10 national partnerships per application areas each delivering £300-£500K per year of existing products which comes from our discussions at Vitafoods, It does not include retail partnerships which in themselves can be worth £5-6m, or other application areas such as dairy, snack bars etc or partnerships with global corporates as these are more difficult to forecast both in terms of deal structure and timescale."

Will OPTI have 10 nationals? They have 2 now and I'm sure there others in the pipeline, but 10 from Vitafoods....I doubt it. I initially thought this was possible, but in reality there are almost certainly going to overlaps in territories and this would not work as per the strategy. OPTI do not want companies crossing into each others territory because this reduces the sales potential. It is all guesswork right now. There could be more because SOH was talking in terms of "per application" and not a group of applications/products. Lets just wait and see.

[parob] 01/10/2017 18:35

Per on twitter:Short weekend with the family and off to Milano with our Business Development Director Luis Gosalbez to train the Sacco Dairy sales staff

[slartybartfaster] 01/10/2017 18:26

So elrico, are you suggesting some of the national deal could be picked off any time soon? 10 was it?

[marnewton] 01/10/2017 17:51

First of all, excuse all the lines, I know the old adage, but I find them useful.

There's not a lot to say after our high volume, bottom seeking, spike - other than the higher low is in and we can start talking about a trend change (not prematurely, I hope). To that end I've put in a nascent ascending channel.

We are above the 8 day EMA (yellow - my trading line), above the now rising 50 day SMA (blue - support) and above the barely rising 200 day SMA (red - barely support!). Hopefully by the time the 50 crosses the 200 it will be rising enough to form a proper golden cross - it should be.

The trouble with indicators is knowing which to place most weight on. Oscillators (such as the Stochastic) are useful in trendless markets. Momentum indicators (MACD) used in trending markets. Which are we in now?

Here the Stochastic would suggest we are nearing the top of the run. But MACD has just given a buy signal - for various reasons that's the one I'm placing most weight on. And historically MACD has worked quite well here. RSI has plenty of headroom.

There was a lot to say after all!¬)

M


Log scale daily candlestick chart:




O/T fathenry - I hope you are off the daily plate of chips;¬) My buy call at AMER was unequivocal, coz I actually bought. And I bought more at 18.00p. And if what I'm seeing now holds up I'll top up again.

[nimrod22] 01/10/2017 17:25

"We are in danger of hyping expectations too much and this is never a good thing to do" Appears that there's been a conversion over night.

[elrico] 01/10/2017 14:42

Paul - I think you mean the timing of the invoices falling into periods H1 OR H2 and not how they affect the reporting period.

Very good question and it is something we need to bear in mind looking forward. I can't claim to know much about invoicing and due dates, etc. I think the accepted invoice to payment is net 90 days, I guess it depends on what is agreed between parties. I think MN tend to take much longer, but again, I really have no experience here, so 90 days is probably the accepted period and 30 days for smaller companies like HLH & PharmaBiota, if I can use them as examples. There a number of OPTI PI better equipped to answer than I as they run their own businesses.

Let us assume worse case scenario of c3 months and let us use HLH as an example, their products only went on sale end of June, OPTI YE is November, so the best case HLH would have c4/5 months of revenues report in OPTI H2 accounts at BEST. All this depends on how efficient HLH and OPTI accounts departments are and of course agreed terms. As an other example, this time TATA...assuming all goes to plan and LPGOS production is ramped up in December, it is not very likely we get a real gauge of sales revenues premlims ending in May 2018, much better in H2 reporting in November. Of course by them we will have a better idea how HLH and PharmaBiota sales are progressing, we may even have some indication of SlimBiome/TATA but my focus is YE reporting in in 2018 because we should have an overlap in H1/H2 of TATA revenues as well as a clue if HLH & PharmaBiota are able to grow sales as per contractual obligations.

Note I have not checked H1/H2 reporting dates so may be out but you get the picture. Also from memory, I think SOH has indicated he is hopeful for group profitability by YE18. I suspect we will beat this because cash burn rate has decreased and we now have the added TATA/LPGOS bonus, which was not on the table at the time, just SlimBiome/TATA and I suspect SOH would have factored negotiating taking longer to conclude.

[pglancy] 01/10/2017 14:08

I never thought of it that way. Good point. I was reading tws article on big sofa today and wondered about the invoice periods and how these may effect the reporting period? Any thoughts elrico?

[elrico] 01/10/2017 13:19

Imnotlong -

We are in danger of hyping expectations too much and this is never a good thing to do, history has demonstrated this amply enough. I don't expect too much news next week. However, as Someuwin indicated, he has been informed there will be some form of an update next week - I suspect this may not be on commercial contracts from the USA, but merely touchy feely info on how the respective groups (LP-LDL/SlimBiome) had attracted significant interest from certain food groups, etc.

You rightly observe there has been little by way of commercial RNS's directly from Vitafoods despite several draft contracts submitted to OPTI. The problem we have is a backlog of deals being concluded to the point they are across the line and announced. SACCO's new global deal would have impacted on negotiations as would the summer break post Vitafoods and I guess the TATA/LPGOS became a priority for SACCO and Per, so the national type deals SOH mentioned were possibly pushed back. I could be wrong, but there does seem to be a lot of negotiations between a small BOD at OPTI/SACCO and any new deals brought in from the LV gig may push back the smallers ones even further, thus creating the illusions these 10 national SOH mentioned have not materialised even though these smaller national type deals can be much quicker to conclude. I would imagine OPTI BOD and say SACCO would be much more focussed on concluding commercial agreements with the MN partners as a priority due to the length of time they take to conclude and revenues these bring in. Sure the profit margins for the national type deals are higher, but the revenues from the MN are significantly greater....£300k - £500k pa per national type deal and £3m - £6m pa per MN deal.

What strikes me as an investor is the behaviour and risks and premiums PI place and willingness to pay for companies. We have all come across a resource play that has announced a drilling program and the speculative investor jumps on board with an army of lemmings, hoping and praying the drill bit comes good.....more often than not it does not. Of course the resource market is a well trodden sector and the risks are well know, so you would think caution would be the watch word. In stark contrast, we have OPTI, an innovative company that announces commercial deal upon commercial deal, derisked, no hope attached to a drill bit, no cash call ahead of the drilling program or 3D seismic, etc and yet apparently not real premium you often associate with a high risk resource play....and even if the drill bit is a success, it's probably years away from commercial flow rates and probably after another cash call.

Just mind-boggling observation ;)

[parob] 01/10/2017 10:28

It looks like Tata partner with companies in territories outside of Asia to supply their ingredients in those markets. For example, CK Ingredients (not to be confused with Cereal Ingredients) supply Tata's Fossence and Gossence prebiotic fibres (GOS) to the US market. Hopefully OPTI's LPGOS will go the same route (perhaps replace):





Interesting that Colleen Madden, their 'Director of Innovation' is connected with SOH, Per, Christina and Luis on LinkedIn.



CK Ingredients had a stand at Supply Side West with Michael Chernyak, their President, in attendance - he's also connected to Per on LinkedIn.

[elrico] 30/9/2017 18:03

Mouse - Google translate

Hospital Virgen de las Nieves de Granada analyzes bacterial microorganisms and their relationship to myocardial infarction

GRANADA, 28 Sep. (EUROPA PRESS) - The Virgen de las Nieves University Hospital in Granada participates in an innovative project called Cardiobiome, which is based on the analysis of the blood microbioma and the mouth of people who have suffered a myocardial infarction with the objective of using it as a biomarker in the prevention, classification, diagnosis and treatment. The microbioma is the genetic analysis of the set of microorganisms that are found in a sample taken to a person Hospital Virgen de las Nieves de Granada analyzes bacterial microorganisms and their relationship to myocardial infarction

being characteristic and unique in each patient, allowing a personalized analysis of the disease that suffers. In addition, the composition of microorganisms affects the maturation of the immune system, being a relevant factor in the development of different pathologies. Cardiobiome, led by the cardiologist Gerardo Moreno currently in the Cardiology Department of the Hospital del Campus, is the result of the collaboration between Health and other entities and aims to establish the rel ...

Leer mas: hxxp://www.europapress.es/esandalucia/granada/noticia-hospital-virgen-nieves-granada-analiza-microorganismos-bacterianos-relacion-infarto-miocardio-20170928120352.html

(c) 2015 Europa Press. Está expresamente prohibida la redistribución y la redifusión de este contenido sin su previo y expreso consentimiento.




It's copyright protected, so you will need to use google translate to read the full text.

[elrico] 30/9/2017 18:02

I guess AR is talking about II understanding the revenue model. We know the revenue model works because Probi have used to great effect with their probiotics. ie 2016 market cap of 500m based on 25m revenues in 2015.

[mouse20] 30/9/2017 16:35

Anyone speak Spanish?

hxxp://www.europapress.es/esandalucia/granada/noticia-hospital-virgen-nieves-granada-analiza-microorganismos-bacterianos-relacion-infarto-miocardio-20170928120352.html

Some kind of cardiobiome trial by the looks of it. No idea if it's connected.

[neftanikoff] 30/9/2017 16:31

And as if by magic, but i assure you, just coincidence, there is a Q & A between TW and AR on this very same subject, that i raised earler today, obviously my postings created a sort of resonance with posters and the big fish (TW & AR)

TW. OPTIBIOTIX IS MY BIGGEST HOLDING AND IT HAS HAD A BIT OF A RALLY OF LATE.
WHAT WILL TAKE IT HIGHER IN TERMS OF NEWS ? AND IS NEWS ENOUGH ?
I MEAN, DOES IT NOT NEED TO START TO SHOW REAL REVENUES AND CASH GENERATION IN
ORDER TO DRIVE MORE OF A RE-RATING ?

AR. THE SECTOR, OPTI ARE IN, HAS HUGE GROWTH OPPORTUNTIES AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL SIGN UP WITH OTHER MULTI NATIONALS CUSTOMERS. SECONDLY, WHEN WE ARE ABLE TO DEMONSRATE THE REVENUE MODEL AND A LOT OF THIS IS GENERATED FROM LICENSING INCOME, THAT IS WHEN I BELIEVE THE STOCK SHOULD GET RE-RATED

Oh well that is what AR thinks and he must be close to SOH. Roll on news of the MN's and this all important revenue projection model at which will no doubt enable the housebroker to give the crucial BUY rating.

[imnotlong] 30/9/2017 14:51

I'm the first to admit that I am impatient, but I had expected more to have come from Vitafoods by now. It was nearly 5 months ago and Sacco have also been promoting lpldl since March, even longer if they did some dd on the product with their customer base prior to signing up.
Hopefully, like buses, multiple contracts will be here soon. Or anything else of Elrico's list.

[elrico] 30/9/2017 14:32

Dim - The fuss is the unknown qualifying and ex divi. Normally, I would agree the share price often retraces by the divi value - with this be any different for OPTI post SBTX? My guess (and that is all it is) is it will not. Why? SBTX stands OPTI a mere £660k, was never in the prospectus, therefore business model - it was merely a cunning business opportunity. Also, I expect the in-specie divi to be handled strategically for the benefit of both SBTX and OPTI, by this I mean I expect SOH and SBTX share price be substantially higher than they are now because both companies will be in a much better place commercially. I also expect lockin period so stock cannot be dumped for a quick profit.

I am not suggesting the will not be any negative impact on it's share price post SBTX p divi, but I would be surprised if say SBTX was valued at say, £15m and OPTI market cap fell by the same value, it would be madness and unwarranted. But hey, markets can be irrational.

[elrico] 30/9/2017 14:25

Nimrod - if your definition of ramping is purely share price driven then you don't understand your own accusation. My point was not the market cap of any of the companies you mention, but you assertion they could be subject to "takeover" ramping possibility of a premium bid price to the current gains in fortunes to them, that is my definition to a rampers post - I at least explained why, you did not as often is the case with peeps with your mindset. Just sling a little mud and run...

[nimrod22] 30/9/2017 13:35

I hardly need to ramp SCH/EPO/BGO/WAND, their share price rise speaks for themselves, up 31%, 65%, 230%, 402% in the year. I would be very happy if OPTI was doing the same.

[m4rtinu] 30/9/2017 13:12

1. Nimrod, would you tell me what attracted you to Opti in the first place? Why you sold is clear; to take a profit, which always makes sense.

2. On suggested snacks to add Slimbiome to. It seems popcorn is very popular!

MU

[dlm2602] 30/9/2017 12:10

I must admit I don't get all the fuss over when OPTI distributes its SBTX shares to OPTI shareholders and that if you sell before you miss the gain. The value of OPTI's 41.9% holding of SBTX is currently worth £5.72m. If OPTI handed them all to OPTI's shareholders now, the market Cap of OPTI would reduce by this amount much like a share going ex dividend. Whether you sell before or after, the effect is or should be neutral to the shareholder. There would be an admin cost to OPTI for carrying out this exercise and as a percentage of £5.72m it may be considered too high to justify. As the holding of SBTX increases in value maybe it would be easier to justify as the percentage falls.
I have a large holding in OPTI (Avg 57p)and am excited about the future of the company. I love the science and respect the management. Having a severely autistic son, I really hope the psychobiotic PS128 from BENED will be available through the JV with OPTI as currently the medical options are limited.

[deeppockets] 30/9/2017 12:09

Elrico, that list of next possible announcements show how many options SOH and the team have created, any one of those could make it profitable as a company. Revenues, when they start, will make a dramatic difference to profits and lead to a re-rating.

[elrico] 30/9/2017 11:27

A classic example of the pan calling the kettle "black ass."

nimrod22 - 25 Sep 2017 - 18:00:18 - 1180 of 1209 Safecharge - SCH
SCH,EPO,BGO,WAND are all companies that are on a bit of a roll, and possible take over targets. The trick is to be in and out at the right times and still catch the rise in share price when the takeover arrives!!!
Possibly OPTI maybe another (today's jump maybe short lived, TW continuously ramping)if it can finally nails down some cash flow.
..............

Nimrod ramped several companies in one post - but wait, does he have a position in any? Would we ever know for sure!!

Ramp example - suggesting several companie could be subject to a takeover! Any evidence for this, nimrod? Nah, don't bother.

[elrico] 30/9/2017 11:13

Parob makes a compelling case for the historical events, share price stagnation and reasons for it - all accurate and true. Of course, the prolonged stagnation would not be the case had we firm evidence of revenues - only recently has SOH ventured to guesstimates potential revenues for SlimBiome and LP-LDL. Nimrod may have a case for market correction, but this market correction has been predicted for 2 years now and we are still waiting for it. Accusations of ramping are commonplace, but the accuser never venture an example of a specific case and counters it. In such cases it is alway prudent to assume the accuser has an agenda. In this case he sold in April, fine his choice, he chose to throw away is SBTX shares, only he will know if the (assumed) profits were worth it.

Anyone looking to buy in now will almost certainly have a shorter wait out of the current trading range.

What will the trigger be for the move up into a new positive trend? Take your pick from 13-14 possible triggers or combination more likely.

TATA/SlimBiome going into production
TAT/LPGOS going into production (we know this is scheduled for Nov and ramped up in Dec
Further national deals concluded from Vitafoods
SlimBiome/CII colaboration
SACCO coming good with US commercial partners for the new dairy products
P&G finally being outed
Boots retail launch
H&B retail launch
Bened product launch
Better than expected sales data from HLL or ParmaBiota
SBTX shares distribution
SweetBiotix IPO
Or II interest
FINNCAP revenue guidance and share price target

There are potential triggers from existing known events (listed) yet the scope for new commercial agreements post SSW beyond what SACCO had already had lined up prior to the exhibition.

No doubt nimrod will view each possible event on the list as a prime example for ramp accusations. Nevertheless, it does not mean I am wrong, I am just more confident of my research than he is. Am I wearing rose tinted? No, I believe in the science backed data, trust the BOD and know they have carefully selected companies that can take OPTI as a group to the next level with minimal risk. As far as I can see, there are three major risk factors - market crash, YSF dumping outside of their stated strategy - "orderly exit" (thus far large chunks placed) or SOH taking a turn for the worse...god forbid the latter never happens.

OPTI is a complex company to understand, so is the new disruptive market its products are designed for - they are also groundbreaking and estimating revenues from new products is impossible. The fact remains, the science has been independently proven, has been peer reviewed by medical specialist in their field, OPTI has been significantly derisked as a company now it is transitioning from R&D to commercial.