Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[malcolmmm] 21/4/2021 15:27

Over the years I have built up a portfolio of well over a hundred shares but most arnt many as I always leave a few when I sell. Useful to keep tabs on them .From looking at my portfolio it is far better to buy and hold than to flip.
These look like they will leap ahead in the short term.

[jambam] 21/4/2021 14:42

I hear that, only two shares in my portfolio in profit and one is OO :)) Still plenty of bargains out there for the brave

[m5] 21/4/2021 14:18

Bloody markets seem exhausted at the moment. Very little follow through on anything. Just sat on my hands at the moment. What's cheap, keeps getting cheaper.

[yasyas1] 21/4/2021 13:55

I am in same position

[m5] 21/4/2021 13:53

Be interested in hearing about the other shares you are looking at if you are willing to divulge. 👍

[lauders] 21/4/2021 13:51

Jigger_1 - Thank you very much for your prompt and polite reply. Was expecting you to tell me to mind my own business ;-) I have a starter position in ORPH and so far am under water with an average of ~45p. I may well add some more later when funds become available but I warn you all, each time I have bought so far the price has dropped afterwards! You may not want me as the BB mascot ;-)

[jigger_1] 21/4/2021 13:23

Lauders – you are correct.

Contrary to commonly held investment strategies I do not diversify. I aggressively buy a few select stocks, which I have thoroughly researched and hold on a high conviction basis.

My stock selection is based solely on strong fundamental analysis, where I anticipate very high returns versus relative low risks (associated with a company & sector).

Simultaneously, I also utilise my own risk analysis decision making tool, to constantly review my investment thesis.

If the share price does not play out as I expected, then I stand by my investment decision and hold buy more (unless there is a very significant change in the company’s fundamentals. In the case of ORPH the fundamentals just keep on getting stronger and stronger every month).

Essentially, it’s a high conviction & high reward investment strategy – that’s worked so far!

In fact, I’m currently working on a couple of other shares to invest in (in addition to ORPH), over the short term. However, as the saying goes – ‘these are not for widows & orphans’.

Thanks for asking.

[pierre oreilly] 21/4/2021 13:18

You seem quite frustrated 12braincells.Not my fault you sold your orph shares you got from your Venn holding at 2p. I imagine with the dilution of your Venn shares you probably could buy a pint with what you realised.I am a bit thick since I can't see what I don't understand. It's still up 800% for me - am I supposed to think that's not very good? Anyhow, if you're happy for everyone ( long termers, traders, and everyone else reading) - that's everyone, even your mummy if she read this thread - to know you're an unbelievably stupid lying troll then carry on. I think it's quite funny.Care to tell us what price you paid for your 1.25 mill shares? No, well I never, you don't seem to 'do' questions do you.

[zeus19] 21/4/2021 13:01

Great intelligent response.... as always (yawn)

[12toes] 21/4/2021 12:21

Hey orelly you tool the share price is down another 5% today You just don't get it do you ? Because you're too thick

[marvelman] 21/4/2021 11:06

Yes James. Selfless posters such as Trader/Jigger are not so common although we are fortunate to have other very informative posters and researches on our BB. Also, this BB is well administered by Scotty and we can avoid the vitriol seen on the other thread. Regards.

[666james] 21/4/2021 10:44

Well said marvelman regarding Trader_3. Just keep your great info posted here.

[lauders] 21/4/2021 10:14

Trader_3 - A query if I may? It seems from your post above that ORPH is a conviction buy for you, and on looking at your posts you only seem to focus on this company. You do, I hope, have interests in other companies don't you? Would hate for things not to go to plan here for you. Having said that, if it is your only play, and things go as many "expect" or at least hope for here, you will be well rewarded and rightfully so with such a "risky" strategy. GL!

[glasswala] 21/4/2021 10:02

The sells knocked the price down but relentless buying has not bought the shares back up as much. Games being played

[marvelman] 21/4/2021 09:57

I don't mind whch moniker you use Jigger as long as you keep posting here. You continue to be an asset on this BB for those who don't participate in the Telegram BB. I do pop into that one but find this one has more of a community spirit and the Telegram one informative but also quite frenetic,

[trader_3] 21/4/2021 09:48

Frankly, I see this temporary pull back as a positive. It’s good that short term traders are leaving & will only result in strengthening the remaining LTH share base.

Those who have conducted their due diligence and research, understand the as yet unrealised true potential value, in ORPH.

This is a short term dip into a continuing & inevitable share price rising trend. Another great buying opportunity for LTH’s.

IMHO

NB FYI - I’ll be posting under the moniker of Jigger_1 in the future (I don’t think that the Trader_3 moniker reflects my high conviction buy & hold trading strategy).

[m5] 21/4/2021 09:48

arab321 Apr '21 - 09:40 - 14605 of 14606

Sorry mate, I don't understand. I wait for the price action for the day to play out. One candle encompasses all the price action that day, buys and sells, and that gives a signal, or not as the case maybe. I will then take my direction from that the following day. I hope that makes sense.

[owenski] 21/4/2021 09:42

From the last contract signing -


"With the ongoing expansion of our clinical footprint, we can now provide any pharmaceutical company, anywhere in the world, rapid access to challenge study clinical trials to gather data on their product in a relatively short time period."

"We are delighted to see human challenge clinical trials now becoming an increasingly important part of pharmaceutical product testing and commercialisation."

"we are in 'ADVANCE NEGOTIATIONS' with 'ALL' the significant RSV vaccine and drug developers globally."


Has anything changed in less than a month then??????

[arab3] 21/4/2021 09:40

Put simply M5 , would you buy or sell after 4.30 ?

[m5] 21/4/2021 09:40

Just to be clear, as I am topping up, the chart for me now right now is about getting the best risk/reward/position I can.

[1gw] 21/4/2021 09:38

One big chunk of uncertainty over valuation of the core business could be removed by CF at a stroke. Core business is CRO with predictable revenues, at least in the near term, given how fully-booked the current facilities are. All CF has to do is provide a trading update with some guidance on 1H revenue, or better still full-year 2021 revenue. Some revenue (in particular how much of the government-optioned Covid challenge studies can be booked in 2021) will still be uncertain but there should be a high degree of certainty around 1H revenue by now and reasonable certainty around full-year revenue excluding the government contracts I would have thought.

That guidance would naturally come alongside full-year 2020 results, but could be issued separately, or alongside a new contract win, if CF felt that was preferable.

That wouldn't remove all the uncertainty around how the CRO business might develop in coming years but would at least give analysts a relatively solid 2021 number to build forecasts/targets from.

[malcolmmm] 21/4/2021 09:30

Graphs aside there seems to be plenty of buyers around although the share price is dropping a little from uncertainty about the spin -off .

[pierre oreilly] 21/4/2021 09:14

12t, could you explain your reasoning why, when one company issues shares a separate company would go down in price? Doesn't make sense to me.You may be getting very mixed up, as many are, with what will happen around the float of orph pharma or whatever it will be called. I'll give you my view.There is currently little or no value assigned to orph pharm in open orphan. This because c won't spend any money on it. Once some cash has been arranged, and the float is definite, then open orphan will rise to represent the anticipated value of orph pharma when backed by cash for development. If that anticipated value is, just to put a number on it, 20p, then orph will rise 20p to reflect that value nowcash is guaranteed. On XD, the recent 20p increase will be deducted from orph, and hat value will sit with orph data, which we will all own after XD.After the float, the orph data will rise, imo, both due to new government incentives for small pharma which are regularly in the news, and the inability of pi's to sell for a period. This is all good for lth, and STH although they won't see that. After the lock in, the price of orph pharma will be well established based on its prospects, and hype in this sector.So, zero in orph for orph pharma now, a rise of 20p in orph on decreasing uncertainty, on XD 20p off orph and on orph data. We gain 20p after all the shenanigans in this example.

[eeza] 21/4/2021 09:13

Rising trendline support at 35p.

[12toes] 21/4/2021 09:13

Pierre Reilly what a tool