Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[pogue] 08/2/2021 08:37

RAVP is a clear income stock its a perpetual preference share and with a good rate as well, 12% at par. Invesco started selling around £1.20 got it down to just above a £1, par, then sold the rump for 90p to management and friends. That is madness.

[m5] 08/2/2021 08:36

I know what you are saying Lako42,and I understand the logic, but again maybe they want to try doing a bit of research and ORPH may soon be fitting into that exact category. Its about producing the best returns surely? Anyway,their loss.

[pogue] 08/2/2021 08:32

m5
I had a pension for many years after opening one when starting work but after realizing what I could do after investing via an ISA for a few years I converted it to a SIPP amazing difference in performance the fees basically ate most of the growth when it was run by L&G IIRC. These guys get paid regardless of how they perform.

[lako42] 08/2/2021 08:29

To be fair they are obligated to sell. If I invest in an income fund I expect the contents of that fund to be providing income ie regular dividends.

Orph doesn't belong in that type of fund and to be honest I'm astonished someone put it and other non income generating stocks in there.

[m5] 08/2/2021 08:23

pogue7 Feb '21 - 19:11 - 11609 of 11624

Morning all, nice start.

Bizarre really dumping companies that are doing everything right and offering huge opportunities for share price growth, replacing them with what I wonder? Makes me realise why I never bothered with a pension. Nobody looks after your money better than you do.

[malcolmmm] 08/2/2021 07:22

Not up to date so amount still in those funds is much lower ,the reason for them selling is that the shares arnt appropriate for those funds as the say in the Mail
Invesco Asset Management Ltd 49,381,346
Invesco UK Equity High Income Fund (UK) 30,929,242
Invesco Income Fund (UK) 18,452,104
MI Sterling Select Companies Fd 11,000,000
Hargreave Hale Limited 10,327,273

[666james] 07/2/2021 21:47

Showmethemoney 11568 Many thanks. Again very positive.

[pierre oreilly] 07/2/2021 20:48

Lako, they may have been trying to develop a coronavirus challenge study infective agent in January last year in Wuhan! Probably not in a negative pressure facility.

[lako42] 07/2/2021 20:32

Thanks both. Understand those fundamentals mentioned. Perhaps I am giving the Chinese too much credit. I thought they might already be down the track with developing something for themselves. Especially how they had a head start :)

[pierre oreilly] 07/2/2021 20:16

616, lako

The chinese don't have the ip, in this case the infective agent and dosing. Afaiui, they are protected property of orph, loosly termed their 'models', one for each illness (about 9 or 10 for orph,

It's why orph can license the technology, giving them the information and rights to use them. They probably just need a pm for the first few challenge studies they do (if they go that route, which looks likely imv). Ip is often charged at a rate related to what it would cost the other party to develop, plus a time element. They could spend 10/20m or whatever developing the specific expertise and then a single model, probably taking several years, or pay orph probably 2 or 3m to license a model for a challenge study.

Licensing is where it's at. Bill gates knows that. Money for nothing really once youv'e got decent ip.

[mark10101] 07/2/2021 20:13

Lako, they are good at copying, not innovating, which is why this is a one time deal I would imagine. The challenge studies take £10m to create, I would say a one time deal of £80m would do it for Cathal. Would still be cheap for the tools they would be getting.

This time last year Cathal was hinting at selling all of ORPH to the Chinese he had a good relationship with, something I was hugely and vocally against, I believe HVIVO is strategic for the UK, although you would not think it given the current MCAP.

[trader_3] 07/2/2021 20:13

AusSport – good spot.

Additionally, on ORPH’s website they state:

‘The first stage of this project will explore the feasibility of exposing healthy volunteers to COVID-19. In this initial phase, called the Virus Characterisation Study, the aim will be to discover the smallest amount of virus it takes to cause a person to develop COVID-19. The study will be sponsored by Imperial College London and conducted by hVIVO at the Royal Free Hospital’s specialist research unit in London, under the scrutiny of hVIVO’s highly trained scientists and medics. If the COVID-19 research is approved by regulators, it will begin early next year with results expected by May 2021.’

hxxps://www.openorphan.com/human-challenge-model

Well we now know it has started on 050221 and they are recruiting, as per link below:

hxxps://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT04740320?term=hvivo&draw=2&rank=1


So even though it’s not been RNS’d, clearly ethics approval has been given for this stage of the characterisation study.

[lako42] 07/2/2021 20:05

Perhaps me being a bit dim......

Why would China need Orph to do CHIMS? The Chinese are experts at copying and building infrastructure in days, Surely they would have the capability to carry this out themselves?

[aussportstrader] 07/2/2021 19:50

Great posts as always Trader_3.

In regards to the link you posted on "Global vaccination strategies: similarities, differences and lessons"
It states "Duration (Approved by regulators and the ethics committee)
Jan-May 2021.

Further confirmation that approval has been given?

[12toes] 07/2/2021 19:39

Big RESPEK to Professor Fuqiang Cui he da main man

[sh0wmethemoney] 07/2/2021 19:32

Cheers for sharing Trader 3, much appreciated

[mark10101] 07/2/2021 19:20

Traders_3 good find and ties in well with his Thursday morning conference call with the top Chinese pharma and regulators.

It will be interesting to see how any deals will be done as the Chinese will only want to pay once, but and excellent addition to revenue and we have Cathal to steer us through and negotiations.

[trader_3] 07/2/2021 19:13

China & CHIMs

1. Cathal has previously discussed China CHIM’s and also a potential licensing option for a very large sum.

“Friel is currently in talks over running challenge trials for a dozen COVID-19 vaccine developers in Europe, North America, and Asia, three of which are from China.”

hxxps://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202006/12/WS5ee2dbeda3108348172528b9_1.html


2. Professor Fuqiang Cui is a Professor and Head of Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology & Director of Vaccine Research Center, School of Public Health, Peking University. He used to be the Deputy Director of the National Immunization Programme, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Manager of Ministry of Health/Global Alliance on Vaccines and Immunization.

hxxps://sph.pku.edu.cn/info/1411/4181.htm

On 13th Jan’21 he delivered a presentation and specifically covered CHIM’s and hVIVO on the slide deck (see page 57 & 58 below):

hxxps://apru.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/APRU-presentation-slides.pdf

He then immediately goes on to discuss population vaccination in China and what they need to evaluate, including ‘Effects of variation on vaccine efficacy’ (a key area in which CHIM’s can be utilised i.e. head 2 head studies).

3. Just three weeks later and Cathal is holding a conference call with seven of China’s largest CEO’s and China’s head regulator – a huge feat for a small CRO company!


It therefore appears to me that some dots are now been joined up!

If the UK gov will pay £46 million to Open Orphan for CHIM’s, with a population of ~67 million people, how much would China pay with a population of circa ~1.45 billion people!?!

IMHO

[jeanesy] 07/2/2021 19:11

When someone is intent on selling it is time to fill your boots when the company in question has got everything going for it as ORPH does here. I remember the days when AAZ was sold down to around 5p because of a distressed seller. There was far , far more risk with that one than there is here. AAZ is now 160p and hopefully will go much higher. I am not sure what my target price is here but it is way north of what it is currently and that imo is purely down to the institutions that are selling. I have taken advantage of that and have loaded up . I am struggling to find the negatives here and i am normally a fairly cautious investor. If i have missed something someone please tell me . This looks to be a very exciting time to be an ORPH shareholder . GLA :)

[pogue] 07/2/2021 19:11

malcolmmm
that confirms what has been happening in other Woodford shares, RAVP I mentioned the other day. They are selling regardless just to get out and taking share prices down with them as they just want the cash to spend on what they think is a good bet. So that confirms they are selling the lot, 5.96%, how much of their holding is gone is unknown as no holdings RNS has been issued but I am not sure if they have to put one out until they are finished selling. I am unsure of the whole rule book on holdings RNSs I should add so if anyone can confirm or knows better please chip in. All I can say is bring on the Chinese but let me buy some more first please.

[malcolmmm] 07/2/2021 18:42

There is an article on Invesco in the online Mail its free to obtain the Mail app.

Looks like Invesco is overhauling their failing funds by selling companies that shouldn't have been in income funds in the first place

Mallon, 49, has been at Henley-on-Thames based Invesco for 16 years and also runs investment trust Invesco Growth and fund Invesco Income and Growth. Goldstone, seven years his junior, manages investment trust Keystone. 

But in an exclusive interview with The Mail on Sunday, the managers say they are determined to stamp their mark on the funds – now relabelled Invesco UK Equity Income and Invesco UK Equity High Income.
No one can accuse the joint managers of sitting on their hands since taking command last May. Despite working remotely for the entire time, they've overhauled both portfolios. 
One hangover from the Woodford era is the funds' exposure to unquoted and illiquid smaller listed firms that should never been in an income oriented fund. 

As one fund manager said: 'One of the reasons for the massive underperformance of the two funds in the past four to five years is that they were weighed down by the dross Woodford bought and Barnett could not sell.'

As at the end of last year, Income and High Income had 1.4 and 1 per cent exposure to unquoteds respectively, both spread across 13 companies and 20 holdings. They also had nearly 10 per cent and just over 8 per cent respectively of their assets in listed smaller companies.

Overall, Mallon believes the pair have started well at the helm of Income

[pogue] 07/2/2021 18:05

jeansey
he was trying to get the Chinese pharma companies to look at buying the shares on Friday problem is he said Invesco seem keen to sell as the price to get more money. Hopefully loads of contracts and new long term holders can be had from last Friday's meeting. Something to look out for news on to see if it happens.

[jeanesy] 07/2/2021 16:49

As for the share selling CF did hint in the latest presentation that he was hoping to take them off there hands. Maybe he will , maybe he doesn't . Either way they can only sell once and I for one am not fussed when they do so . There is so much good news in the pipeline here . The company is well placed and in the right space at the right time . Very comfortable with my investment here :)

[bo doodak] 07/2/2021 15:58

Re the necessary court application CF mentions to first create distributable reserves, I recall TSG's similar action a few years ago only took 2 months, so not a long procedural delay before any distributions can take place.