Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 03/2/2021 14:42

Interesting that shares on loan have seen quite a spike in January according to the Euroclear data. It was only 3m shares in total (month average), so less than 0.5% of share capital, but if the near 2m additional shares were sold into the market (i.e. supporting a short position) then it would be a bit of a headwind for the shareprice.

Someone trying to front-run Invesco?

Aug 0.7 (million shares on loan month average)
Sep 1.0
Oct 1.0
Nov 0.9
Dec 1.2
Jan 3.1

[john henry] 03/2/2021 14:19

Wassapper total nonsense concerning IG, they are simple at their 3% risk limit.

[m5] 03/2/2021 14:18

1gw3 Feb '21 - 14:09 - 11370 of 11371

I stand corrected Sir.

[pierre oreilly] 03/2/2021 14:16

1G, he's said he wouldn't raise cash before ... and he subsequently did (at 12p iirc).

Most didn't like that at all. I thought it was great - part of his personality, putting orph first over his promises. I wouldn't do that, but i'm not a successful entrepeneur who's going to make tens of mill. It comes with the territory.

The reason we are at mid 20s today is pin a large part the fund raise at 12p.

No need to raise cash today, orph has more than enough.

[pierre oreilly] 03/2/2021 14:11

for a bit fo fun i'll risk looking stupid.

My guess for the price over the next 48 hours s

close today 25.5

1st 30 mins tomorrow 27,5p

close tomrrow 26.5p.

I'm not betting on it!

[1gw] 03/2/2021 14:09

Actually, I think it's worse than that! The 50% in 6 months was clearly out in the open on 28th August. Closing share price on 27th August was 14.15p. So target, on that basis, for 27th Feb would be just over 21p.

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LFDKMP 28 Aug '20 - 11:34 - 4838 of 11369 0 4 0

CF adamant that further fundraising now not on the agenda and that returning cash to shareholders via dividend now firmly in sight. Once these two realisations start to sink in, his 50% share price rise within six months (followed by another 50% six months later) becomes very achievable.

I have considerably increased my holding.

[m5] 03/2/2021 14:01

Indeed, you have to take it from the time he mentioned it. We have been at 32p but it would be totally unfair to take it from the highest point, although 48p would be nice.:-) That's still my target once we break 32p. For those interested we still have a huge flag on the charts, its all still intact. Once it breaks the high, its gets there pretty fast in my experience. 48p, puts us on 340m market cap.

By the way, you can chuck all that in the bin when a wearables deals drops.The unknows here are the ones that can blow it all out of the water.

[pierre oreilly] 03/2/2021 13:57

C can drastically alter the value of the company, but he can't control the share price. Dross with fa value can double in a day, high value companies can plod along for ages.

The only thing known is that at some stage, one way or the other, the price eventually matches the value.

[marvelman] 03/2/2021 13:57

So another 18% from here and he has done it then m5..well pleased we should all be.

[lako42] 03/2/2021 13:54

Agreee M5, but our good friend Readdin stated that the share price has only dropped in the last '6 months' Not since CF stated his 50% increase every 6 months.

[m5] 03/2/2021 13:34

The share price at the end of September was around 19.5p, this is when I think, as discussed before, CF mentioned this share price rise of 50% every 6 months, so by rights by the end of March you are looking at 29p for him to be on target with what he has said. I would be disappointed with that but to be fair to him, he would be on target with what he has said.

[lako42] 03/2/2021 13:17

I'm not sure how long your months are Readdin but in my world the share price was 12p 6 months ago.

[wassapper] 03/2/2021 13:12

Interestin that IG is still closing only. No new bets. I know it's been like this for a while. Normally they say that this is due to company size (we are a respectbale maket cap) and share price volatility (what's that with Orph stuck in this range?).

The seers at IG must be expecting something postive in the price as we all do.

[readdin] 03/2/2021 13:11

Cf can talk about the share price all he wants as long as it does what he bangs on about, 3 months ago he said he likes a steady rise of about 50% every 6 months, well in the last 6 months all its done is drop!!!

[pierre oreilly] 03/2/2021 12:40

Omg, you're not yet another yump handle are you?

Anyhow, what's wrong with a 1% rise in a day. Especially after a 4/5% rise yesterday.

1% is about 2 or 3 years interest in the Nationwide.

1% per day does me just fine.

It turns a quid into 37 quid in a year.

10,000 into 370,000

In two years it turns 10k into 14mill.

[12toes] 03/2/2021 12:33

If we can only get a 1% rise on today's great news then it doesn't bode well for the short/mid time share price

[pierre oreilly] 03/2/2021 11:54

A year ago today since my first buy. Followed by buys most days over the next 2 weeks as it dawned on me how spectacular this was going to be. Talk just after was why is it stuck at 6p with all the good news and the usual speculation on who was selling. Joined by M a couple of days later. Oh, the days of yump telling us all what a basic mistake we had nade.

Bought just 2 times since, but pointless really making about 1% difference to my holding (due to the much higher price i paid). I don't think I'm brave not selling any at all. Seems just sensible to me.

[lako42] 03/2/2021 11:32

I also haven't sold a bean since my initial investment at 6p. I have added considerably along the way though.

My GP would certainly say I'm overweight here.

[royalalbert] 03/2/2021 11:29

PC that actually takes some balls.

[pecuniarum copia] 03/2/2021 11:26

Well i'm still holding all from the circa. 5.65p days back in Feb.2020

[faz] 03/2/2021 11:25

I sat in on the Renalytix presentation a while back. The CEO says the company doesn't comment on the share price; however he noted it had risen in the last year. He let the prospects and business model do the talking. The share rose form 480p to 920p in a month (ironically down a touch today). The CEO's job is not that of a broker and too often I've hear Cathel banging on about the share price as if he was still in his old job. I am a happy holder with just under 500k shares but if he wants I can move the bleedin price for him.

[troutisout] 03/2/2021 11:02

Extrader,
Perhaps he didn't want Invesco selling into a rise, perhaps he knew they were selling off some, that they didn't accept the offers from other investors to buy those and so he didn't want them profiting too much.
I was in a Company a few years back that did the same thing, PIs thought they were being 'negative' . II sold off into a lower price which PIs picked up, after overhang cleared, price went up and PIs profited not the selling II.

[1gw] 03/2/2021 10:44

The finnCap note says that the 1H21 revenue for the new facility is for contracts that have previously been announced. So no "new" revenue in today's announcement, although clearly the revenue from those previous announcements couldn't have been delivered in 1H without the additional capacity that was announced today.

So that's the issue IMO. The market doesn't understand what revenue is "guaranteed", what is secured subject to conditions, and what is just highly likely.

[royalalbert] 03/2/2021 10:42

Well hopefully a rise tomorrow after CF's speech tonight.