Osb Share Discussion Threads

[steptoes yard] 15/2/2017 10:00

OSB appear to be outperforming ALD which surprises me but got both so fair enough

[che7win] 15/2/2017 09:57

Uptrend continues for all the banks

[che7win] 11/2/2017 18:30

Maz, That is amusing, I still have a load of shares here, I thought the chart would have a bit further to go here. It is a volatile one and I still hold the bulk of my shares. I guess I only top up here when I think it's fallen too far.I try to protect my capital rather than think of the upside these days. It's costs not to buy and hold too though. Still hoping for 400p here.

[mazarin] 11/2/2017 15:40

Chew7win I thought you'd be amused to know that you bought in about a week later than I did in December last year when I recall you paid about 12p less per share then and part-sold a week later than me this week (to the very day) and still managed get 12p more - how do you do it...? It could have made a difference of just under £1k on my holding, its amazing what difference a week can make, its all about timing. Very annoying - only joking!

[uhound] 10/2/2017 16:47

Not looking to go short then Che7win!

Interesting to see where this goes now as we get closer to results on 16 March.

[che7win] 10/2/2017 15:44

Sold 1000 earlier today at 362.1p and 2007 ALD, no other reason than I want to increase cash.

[mazarin] 08/2/2017 12:01

You could well be right, OSB's previous highs have generally retracted by decent margin, that is until I sold last week and since then remained relatively flat, until today. I reckon PAG is undoubtedly the reason here, although I see ALD is presently flat. It's a strange 'old world' and Good luck to all holders.

[che7win] 08/2/2017 11:55

I thin a good chance we get into the 375-400p range this time, stock has slowly worked up to get here?

[che7win] 08/2/2017 11:50

Maz, We all feel like that, not much higher than your sell mate.

[mazarin] 08/2/2017 11:39

Its always a 'Buy' signal when I sell, I've got a knack for it

[che7win] 08/2/2017 11:30

OSB breaking out.

[che7win] 08/2/2017 08:49

PAG really going for it.

[che7win] 06/2/2017 15:26

Thinks OSB tried to go down and support was there, I am hoping for further rises from here, but we'll see.

[mazarin] 03/2/2017 17:21

I hadn't realised that OSB was so volatile until I'd bought it and been holding solidly since end of Dec, during which time there have been many dips and recoveries that potentially could have made me 8 to 10% gains, had I traded accordingly. So this week made the decision to come out at an appropriate point and today dealt at £3.51, having hovered over the 'Sell' button several times on Wednesday and will look to get back in when I think its entering another low.

[che7win] 03/2/2017 14:23

Bowlicious!

[uhound] 01/2/2017 20:05

Watching and waiting Che7win for my next entry point!

If it holds here may see a run to 400p?

[che7win] 01/2/2017 10:12

Barclays 420p target for OSB released today

[che7win] 01/2/2017 08:57

This stock is looking very strong, wish I had topped up more than I did at 314p.

Did you buy any UHOUND?

The whole sector is going up - SHAW and ALD rising.

[future financier] 30/1/2017 09:03

I assume the difference is between "Basic EPS" - 30.2p in H1 and "Underlying EPS" - 19.7p in H1. Analysts often work against different measures - but Underlying is the more common measure (and usually higher as companies seek to massage results). But still 40p looks "conservative" to me.

[stoph] 28/1/2017 21:15

According to the interims on the 24th Aug last year eps was 30.2p

H1 2016 H1 2015
Statutory Profit before Tax (GBPm) 100.0 46.6
Total Assets (GBPbn) 6.3 5.2
Net loan book (GBPbn) 5.4 4.6
Basic EPS(7) (pence) 30.2 15.0
Underlying basic EPS(8) (pence) 19.7 15.5
Loan to deposit ratio(9) (%) 85% 92%
3 Months+ Arrears(10) (%) 2.1 2.4
Loan loss ratio(11) (bps) 18 23
Customer Net Promoter Score (%) 59% 50%

According to company refs eps for the 6 months for the 2nd half of last year was 19.8P and so no growth in the 2nd half would suggest 50p eps for the year. An estimate of 40p for the year suggests a dire 2nd half or a large tax bill payable on this year's profits and I am expecting growth.

Can anyone enlighten me

[uhound] 27/1/2017 10:12

Agreed it does all look fine on the face of it, but based on what I'm being told by contacts in the BTL industry (Brokers, estate/letting agents, solicitors, financiers) activity for BTL purchases by individuals has nose dived since November.

Ltd company purchases has increased mainly because some landlords have decided to incorporate as a way to "get round" the new tax changes. However, this is only a small proportion in the overall market.

PAG and OSB are not the most favoured lenders of the professional landlord despite the fact that's their target market.

In the south east more previously let property is coming on to the market for sale as landlords both amature and professional "get out". Some professionals will re-invest in the midlands and the north where it's still a viable investment.

I don't see a big crash in the south east property market because cash buyers will still buy in certain areas - but they don't need mortgages.

OSB South east dominant lender.

At the end of the day it's the share price we are watching and that's driven by sentiment and often not anything else!

I guess we will see.

[che7win] 27/1/2017 09:24

UHound,
that's why the OSB consensus is for 40.25p EPS 2016 and 40.72p 2017, although Numis is forecasting 50.3p EPS.

Think PAG update today shows that the market is still there for a small fish like OSB to eat from.

Lets face it, the current P/E for 2016 is 8 and below 8 for the year ahead, I don't see why OSB shouldn't get to a P/E 10 (400p) and if it surprises, could go to 500p easily.

Market has already priced in downside with OSB sitting at a P/E 8 right now, yet recent updates from the company are positive.

A large part of OSB's business is remortgaging, they can move swifter than the big banks, I remain positive and PAG update doesn't change my view.

[uhound] 27/1/2017 08:29

However, the key statement in the trading update is:-

"It is too early to determine the full extent of the PRA changes on the market, and the further changes due later in the year."
*Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA)


Speak to any mortgage broker, estate agent and ask about activity levels now in the BTL market.

It's going to hit growth and it's a large chunk of the PAG, OSB business.

[che7win] 27/1/2017 08:16

Excellent update from PAG

[che7win] 25/1/2017 13:24

Future, That figures, I mean why do a buyback with the share at its high.