Osb Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 08/2/2017 11:30

OSB breaking out.

[che7win] 08/2/2017 08:49

PAG really going for it.

[che7win] 06/2/2017 15:26

Thinks OSB tried to go down and support was there, I am hoping for further rises from here, but we'll see.

[mazarin] 03/2/2017 17:21

I hadn't realised that OSB was so volatile until I'd bought it and been holding solidly since end of Dec, during which time there have been many dips and recoveries that potentially could have made me 8 to 10% gains, had I traded accordingly. So this week made the decision to come out at an appropriate point and today dealt at £3.51, having hovered over the 'Sell' button several times on Wednesday and will look to get back in when I think its entering another low.

[che7win] 03/2/2017 14:23

Bowlicious!

[uhound] 01/2/2017 20:05

Watching and waiting Che7win for my next entry point!

If it holds here may see a run to 400p?

[che7win] 01/2/2017 10:12

Barclays 420p target for OSB released today

[che7win] 01/2/2017 08:57

This stock is looking very strong, wish I had topped up more than I did at 314p.

Did you buy any UHOUND?

The whole sector is going up - SHAW and ALD rising.

[future financier] 30/1/2017 09:03

I assume the difference is between "Basic EPS" - 30.2p in H1 and "Underlying EPS" - 19.7p in H1. Analysts often work against different measures - but Underlying is the more common measure (and usually higher as companies seek to massage results). But still 40p looks "conservative" to me.

[stoph] 28/1/2017 21:15

According to the interims on the 24th Aug last year eps was 30.2p

H1 2016 H1 2015
Statutory Profit before Tax (GBPm) 100.0 46.6
Total Assets (GBPbn) 6.3 5.2
Net loan book (GBPbn) 5.4 4.6
Basic EPS(7) (pence) 30.2 15.0
Underlying basic EPS(8) (pence) 19.7 15.5
Loan to deposit ratio(9) (%) 85% 92%
3 Months+ Arrears(10) (%) 2.1 2.4
Loan loss ratio(11) (bps) 18 23
Customer Net Promoter Score (%) 59% 50%

According to company refs eps for the 6 months for the 2nd half of last year was 19.8P and so no growth in the 2nd half would suggest 50p eps for the year. An estimate of 40p for the year suggests a dire 2nd half or a large tax bill payable on this year's profits and I am expecting growth.

Can anyone enlighten me

[uhound] 27/1/2017 10:12

Agreed it does all look fine on the face of it, but based on what I'm being told by contacts in the BTL industry (Brokers, estate/letting agents, solicitors, financiers) activity for BTL purchases by individuals has nose dived since November.

Ltd company purchases has increased mainly because some landlords have decided to incorporate as a way to "get round" the new tax changes. However, this is only a small proportion in the overall market.

PAG and OSB are not the most favoured lenders of the professional landlord despite the fact that's their target market.

In the south east more previously let property is coming on to the market for sale as landlords both amature and professional "get out". Some professionals will re-invest in the midlands and the north where it's still a viable investment.

I don't see a big crash in the south east property market because cash buyers will still buy in certain areas - but they don't need mortgages.

OSB South east dominant lender.

At the end of the day it's the share price we are watching and that's driven by sentiment and often not anything else!

I guess we will see.

[che7win] 27/1/2017 09:24

UHound,
that's why the OSB consensus is for 40.25p EPS 2016 and 40.72p 2017, although Numis is forecasting 50.3p EPS.

Think PAG update today shows that the market is still there for a small fish like OSB to eat from.

Lets face it, the current P/E for 2016 is 8 and below 8 for the year ahead, I don't see why OSB shouldn't get to a P/E 10 (400p) and if it surprises, could go to 500p easily.

Market has already priced in downside with OSB sitting at a P/E 8 right now, yet recent updates from the company are positive.

A large part of OSB's business is remortgaging, they can move swifter than the big banks, I remain positive and PAG update doesn't change my view.

[uhound] 27/1/2017 08:29

However, the key statement in the trading update is:-

"It is too early to determine the full extent of the PRA changes on the market, and the further changes due later in the year."
*Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA)


Speak to any mortgage broker, estate agent and ask about activity levels now in the BTL market.

It's going to hit growth and it's a large chunk of the PAG, OSB business.

[che7win] 27/1/2017 08:16

Excellent update from PAG

[che7win] 25/1/2017 13:24

Future, That figures, I mean why do a buyback with the share at its high.

[future financier] 25/1/2017 13:00

che7win - re PAG - that's all a cunning plan to inflate the value of Terrington's options rather than distributing the rewards for profits to shareholders! Very annoying, but if you like PAG as a business you just have to decide whether you can stomach the rewards paid to directors year in year out for the value of what they achieved some time back!

[che7win] 25/1/2017 12:37

PAG just launched a £25m share buyback, they're keen!ALD up 4% today, sector recovery today.

[uhound] 25/1/2017 09:05

As stated earlier - PAG update on Friday could be key here. Any negativity with it's BTL outlook could hit the sector hard.

Sentiment drives share prices.

Watch the PAG shares price ahead of Friday.

[mazarin] 24/1/2017 12:38

I'm glad someone's making money out of OSB - I'm presently still looking at something akin to a 'black hole' after 'divesting' nearly 2 months ago

[che7win] 24/1/2017 11:53

UHOUND,
Out by the skin of your teeth, you timed that perfectly, I'm impressed :-)
Nice £500 you banked there.

[uhound] 23/1/2017 11:37

PAG trading update Friday I believe then ALD and SHAW early March.

Will be interesting to see their outlook and if it's changed in anyway now that reactions to BREXIT, Tax changes, Trump, Interest rates etc., have sunk in.

[che7win] 23/1/2017 10:06

I've bought some more.

[che7win] 23/1/2017 09:59

Uhound, Well done, good trade, I didn't think you'd make money but you have.40p EPS forecast, I'm tempted to buy more if/when we see some strength, whole sector fallen a bit.

[uhound] 23/1/2017 09:44

Short closed here @312. Nice little profit banked in 3 weeks.

May see a bounce in the short term, but still think 250 is possible within a few months.

[che7win] 18/1/2017 15:16

Yes, CAKE is a wonderful business with high ROCE, not sure about the latest take over rumour they are looking at acquiring, guess they know what they're doing.