Osb Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 04/10/2017 16:54

Flowers has agreed to a fresh 90-day lock-up for its 23% remaining stake.By the close on Wednesday, the shares were down almost 6% to 374p.Analyst Ian Gordon at Investec said it was "curious timing" for the sale at a 6% discount to the closing share price and 14% below the price of 438p which it achieved last time out on 25 May."We do not argue that OneSavings is the most undervalued specialist bank," he said, describing OneSavings as a "quality low-risk bank with an outstanding management team", with no exposure to consumer credit and a recent history of pulling back from market segments where pricing has started to become questionable.The bank's core business is buy-to-let lending, which now accounts for almost 100% of its net loan growth, which has led to the bank producing a 28% return on equity alongside a 28% cost:income ratio in the first half of the year, with a sizeable surplus on the balance sheet."Either it will find fresh opportunities (portfolio acquisitions) that meet its exacting standards or (we think) it will wish to start returning this surplus to shareholders via special dividend or buyback," Gordon said.

[che7win] 04/10/2017 16:26

I've bought a few times.

[che7win] 04/10/2017 15:46

Bought 2000 to trade.

[che7win] 04/10/2017 15:36

Well, we got there.

[che7win] 04/10/2017 10:28

Alliance headline:"IN THE KNOW: 888, Onesavings Fall On Stake Sales But Analysts Positive"

[che7win] 04/10/2017 10:27

One other thing, OSB seem very keen on their savings interest rates, they are right now a Best Buy for instant access at 1.27% interest rate, seems to me they have demand for lending on the mortgage side.

[cc2014] 04/10/2017 09:57

Hmm. Whilst not easy to make money from the stock market, enough opportunities come along in a year to make money with relative ease if you are able to be patient.

In this sector I have long term holds of ALD, RBS, LLOY and PCF. I like ALD and PCF best. ALD I am holding from 115, although I have some more higher up to range trade. My SHAW went in the takeover.

I trade VM., OSB and PAG and as long as you range trade them it's easy enough to make money. I would definitely not want to short them as I believe medium to long term they are going up. "Just" buy a decent sized dip

This whole sector looks cheap to me. Property too. I have INTU, BLND and have my eye on HMSO. Huge discount to NAV. INTU is paying 6% yield.

So as and when OSB hits 375 or hopefully slightly below I shall buy. If it doesn't get there, there will be another trade somewhere else.

[che7win] 04/10/2017 09:48

Mazarin,
The volatility is not due to JCFlowers, but direction of the share from its peak has clearly been influenced by them. They are the company that bought Kent Reliance, grew the business and then listed it on the stock market.
As a large holder, they have been steadily selling down and will sell out eventually, so they haven't been trading it.

[future financier] 04/10/2017 09:43

The "nuclear winter" scenario
that holds these down is the entirely conceivable combination of:

(a) Corbyn coming to power and slapping on rent controls; and
(b) Corbyn's magic money tree creating so much money that BoE forced to increase to increase interest rates by say 4% leading to landlord defaults and lender losses.

But i still think these represent excellent value.

[che7win] 04/10/2017 09:36

All the banks have been going sideways from June, but since results in August they have been moving up.
PAG, ALD and OSB all outperformed market expectations, In OSB's case they had to upgrade growth this year to "at least high teens", yet another upgrade from previous guidance.
Contrast that to the current P/E of 7.5, in other words growth is twice the P/E!!

It seems the market is ignorant to the core OSB market hitting a sweet spot for OSB, as the company announced:

"Application levels in our core businesses for the third quarter to date remain strong and our focus on professional landlords continues to position us well, with the impact of regulation, including additional requirements for specialist underwriting from 1 October 2017, expected to further shift Buy-to-Let activity towards our target market."

They have had to recruit extra staff to cope with the demand.

From the latest broker targets I have (5/9/2017) EPS has been upgraded for next year:
Peel Hunt expect 48.47p EPS
Investec expect 52.61p EPS

So around 50p EPS, 40% growth this year from last, dividend growth 62% last year, 46% this year expected, dividend yield 3.5%, P/E 7.5.

All the metrics going the right way.

[mazarin] 04/10/2017 09:30

Since I've been holding OSB (over approx last 2 years) I've seen wild fluctuations in the share price for no apparent reason and commented at the time in search for answers. So have these 'gyrations' been due JC Flowers intervention like 'rabbits in and out of a burrow?

[uhound] 04/10/2017 09:07

And since May high? Down, Down, Down.

And in the last 2 months?

PAG - 0%
ALD - 0%
VM - -2%
LLOY - 0%

Maybe that WAS the bottom!

Economy is not in a healthy state - not good for banks - too much debt out there to see any significant interest rate rises. I wouldn't bet on a November hike. But it would highlight the wider issues and expose the fragile state of things.

[bamboo2] 04/10/2017 09:03

Interesting posts che7win, and others. Still watching.

[che7win] 04/10/2017 08:55

Incredible! Are you looking at the same stock market as me? All the banks are trending up and seeing demand, OSB included - which is why the JCFlowers sale is an opportunity. I'm really disappointed as I was hoping to pick some up at 375p this morning.

It's been easy to make money here, very easy and predictable.

OSB is volatile, I've traded these many times this year between 375 - 402p price range. Very easy to make 3-5% profits all summer here trading within the support and resistance levels whilst holding a core percentage.
I haven't wanted to trade, but the prices against the business are just too cheap IMHO.

As for its peers, they are all trending up, ALD up from 210p level to recent highs around 230p.
PAG up 8% in the past month and trending up.
VM. off lows and trending up.
LLOY up 5% in the past month.

The banks are seeing interest (excuse pun), will benefit from interest rate rises in November, OSB has upgraded growth forecasts two times this year and keeps outperforming as a business.

[uhound] 04/10/2017 08:45

PE of 7.5, Broker upgrades, Good results, etc,etc.

If it was that easy to make money in the stock market we would ALL be rich!

That's not how it works - investor sentiment drives prices based on the markets PERCEIVED future value/prospects.

OSB, obviously not in favour for whatever reason. PAG, ALD also - coincidence?

[che7win] 04/10/2017 08:22

CC, That's my strategy.

[cc2014] 04/10/2017 08:21

Wait for it to fall to 375 or slightly below over the next week or so and then we have a nice safe long for depending on your risk profile at least 25pts?

[che7win] 04/10/2017 07:58

The JCflowers sale has nothing to do with the company though, I was told by the company that they have no knowledge of JCFlowers sales before it happens, just like the market.It's in the results about the risk from JCFlowers selling out, that is what they do, they buy finance companies, invest in them and then exit after a few years, that is their modus operandi.

[portermj] 04/10/2017 07:53

This doesn't ring well with me when you think about the share price movement since the last time Flowers was in.The ftse 250 has performed loads better than the stock price ,every broker bar 1 give estimates than range 430 to 475 and anything in between except one for some reasons has 368, figures to die for ,directors selling chunk of shares less than a week before Flowers,market makers holding the price down and where is the price this morning , leak,leak,leak.

[che7win] 04/10/2017 07:24

375p open puts this on a forward P/E of 7.5

[che7win] 04/10/2017 07:14

So a 6% discount as suspected.I'm glad they have clarified the sale - they have actually sold 14% of their stake, sooner they sell out the better as its overhanging the business.

[che7win] 03/10/2017 21:28

Looks like it.If there is a 6% discount tomorrow, I will consider buying, the shares go ex-dividend next week for 3.5p.

[portermj] 03/10/2017 21:20

Funny how those bad boys with all the up grades didn’t want to go through 400 then we (share holders find out F C flowers are back in seems the market makers new more than us share holders hmmm.

[che7win] 29/9/2017 11:36

The banks are moving up strongly this week.

Look at PAG and ALD.

I expect OSB could break out from here at any time and put on 5% very quickly from here.
Money is rotating in, definitely a bit more interest to me.