Osb Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 05/1/2017 11:36

Thanks Uhound, Interesting angle, if these were at a double digit P/E (e.g. 15) equals share price 600p, I would be aligned with you.Genuinely appreciate your insight.

[uhound] 05/1/2017 11:13

Che7win,

I'm not here to wind anyone up - I'm just posting my view on this company on the OSB board. I hope everyone profits from their trading.

First let me point out that I am a professional property investor myself - trading is only a sideline!

Take it from me ALL lending to landlords weather professional or amature is down significantly.

True that Lending to LTD companies for BTL has increased - simply because some landlords think this is the way to go to get round the new taxation changes. But as an example - if you previously lent to 100 LTD companies and now you lend to 150 Ltd companies you can say we are seeing an 50% increase.
However, if you were lending to 1000 individuals and now your only lending to 100 for the same period, then overall you're down - a lot!

OSB report figures to September 2016 - interestingly it's from November 2016 where lending applications have dropped like a stone.

There are other hurdles which will affect HMO's and lending in general which I don't have time to explain.

Like I say the next set of results will make us better informed.

You are right we are in a bit of a bull market of late for banks - so my timing may be off. Initially I thought 400p was an area to short, but once it went from 370 to 330 I thought any resistance around 345 may result in further declines hence my entry.

If I get stopped out I'll look again for any signs of weakness before a trading update.

Anyway, good luck to all with their trading.

[che7win] 05/1/2017 10:27

Uhound, I commend your honesty here and your view should not be ignored. OSB concentrates on 'professional' btl market. If you listen to their presentation, they are very adapt to changes and their USP is that the work with brokers and btl professionals at a service level which big banks simply don't do.You mention timing, the problem for the bear case is that the whole sector is rising and OSB pessimism was way over the top. That's why I'm here, it's still only at a P/E of 8 and the company announcement pretty much nails on continued growth in 2017.See the last comment below, you make fair points but my view is your timing is off and you are going against a bullish market here. Double digit growth against a P/E of 8:Trading update OneSavings Bank plc ('OSB'), the specialist lending and retail savings group, today issues its trading update for the period from the 1(st) July 2016 to date. Highlights -- Strong financial and operational performance has continued in line with management expectations. -- Underlying loan book growth of 13% for the nine months to September 2016, excluding the impact of the Rochester disposal of c. GBP220m of mortgages. Net loans & advances grew by GBP466m to GBP5.6bn during the period. -- Margins on GBP510m of organic origination in the third quarter remained strong. Net interest margin to the end of the third quarter continued to be in line with our expectations. -- OSB completed the purchase of a first charge residential mortgage portfolio of c. GBP60m on October 31 2016, at a discount to par. The mortgages are predominantly owner occupied and well diversified across the UK. -- The Group has drawn GBP626m under the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) to date and intends to commence drawing from the new Term Funding Scheme (TFS) during the fourth quarter. This complements our long-term retail savings franchise. -- Business growth continues to be supported by a strong capital position. Andy Golding, CEO of OneSavings Bank, said: "I am extremely pleased with the performance of the business this year. Application levels for the second half to date are significantly in excess of the first half and our pipeline of new business is at a record level. This means we remain confident of achieving our net loan book growth target for this year and double-digit growth into 2017."

[future financier] 05/1/2017 10:19

UHOUND - whilst BTL as a whole has been hit hard by the tax changes there are some sectors that are doing well. The main BTL "losers" are the simple BTLs owned by private individuals - this was never OSB's marketplace. There has been an expansion in the market for BTL properties owned within a limited company - and this is OSB's market whereas several "mainstream" BTL lenders do not have the systems or staff to handle these. So those lenders such as OSB's brands that can handle limited companies are doing very nicely - and should continue to do so. Likewise more complex BTL properties such as HMOs.

I agree about the risks posed by interest rates cannot be ignored - but I think that OSB is currently in a pretty good place.

[uhound] 05/1/2017 09:41

As ever it's all about timing your entry and exits!

[uhound] 05/1/2017 09:40

Che7win,

To me, they will be losing business from the decline in "Buy to Let" lending which I understand to be a large area for them. Also general property lending.

Mortgage lending for BTL is declining rapidly - Brokers reports.
They are South East focused which is being hit the most and their rates are not the best anyway, so unlikely to gain market share.

Interest rates can't go up much otherwise people will default on credit/home loans etc - which will have a knock on effect on lenders.

I guess the next trading updates will paint a clearer picture.

[che7win] 05/1/2017 09:26

Uhound, From 260p level upwards, I did trade a few back in June though around 196p level. Have bought some recently.To me, they are on a current P/E of 8 and the whole sector is rising, they look like they should rise to minimum 400p level, margins will improve for banks if interest rates rise which is why the sector is rising.

[uhound] 05/1/2017 09:23

Che7win, what price did you manage to buy these for?

Good luck with your investment.

[che7win] 05/1/2017 08:52

Uhound, 5 figure no. shares owned here currently.

[uhound] 05/1/2017 08:01

Che7win, went short at 337p - £20pt - Stop at 362. In case I'm wrong!

What you in for?

[bamboo2] 04/1/2017 22:19

Hi mazarin, I'm still learning!

che7, yes understand your ladder idea, it def has validity here. I used to do a lot of charts with parallel trendlines, and they work well with line charts. I find with candlesticks it's better to have the real angles produced by following the wicks. Triangle and wedge apexes [marked by red vertical lines] have become a fascination for me... how they point to trend changes, even after the price has moved on. It is uncanny.

[che7win] 04/1/2017 21:47

Bamboo, I would have drawn the chart with parallel support and resistance lines rising, it's quite predictable since June with the step ladder rise?Don't think this board is busy, take my posts out and it's pretty quiet. We have a resident bear here too, all quite healthy :-)

[thorpematt] 04/1/2017 20:19

Not sure if the fact that its getting busy on the thread is a good or a bad sign really.

I put this one in this year's stockchallenge (I am usually too lazy for the monthly one) but I rather think it has a nice swift move to 400p written all over that chart.

[mazarin] 04/1/2017 19:02

Nice to see your chart expertise also posted here Bamboo, its been some while since I saw them relating to fortunes of APH. Always good to get a technical perspective - thanks

[bamboo2] 04/1/2017 17:44

Chart looking good. An eod close above the recent high [372] will target around 395. Like the way the breakaway gap has provided a support cushion.

[che7win] 04/1/2017 17:09

Uhound, How much are you short here mate?

[che7win] 04/1/2017 16:45

22408 UT closing trade at 350.30p, nice close.

[che7win] 04/1/2017 13:06

It was on the pivot point maz chart wise, market decided to take it up after testing support, simple as that. I would hope now we go towards highs from here.

[mazarin] 03/1/2017 16:50

I had no idea that OSB could be so volatile, I noticed that earlier today it went from -12p to +5p in a couple of hours to close almost flat on the day. Can anyone explain what shenanigan's are going on here?

[che7win] 03/1/2017 15:22

Lovely hammer formation today, very bullish.

[che7win] 31/12/2016 08:52

Just noticed, Investec 5th Sept broker note now expect OSB EPS 2016 of 41.06p moving up next year to 46.02p.

[che7win] 30/12/2016 11:40

Maz, Hard to time sometimes, but right on the uptrend now.I expect these to get to 400p, we shall see.If I wanted to short based on property, think I'd short DFS, chart looks poor.

[che7win] 30/12/2016 11:21

Maz, Yep, P/E 10 equals 400p share price.Earlier this month:OneSavings Bank rallied on Tuesday as RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to 'outperform' from 'sector perform' and lifted the price target to 355p from 305p on higher forecasts and lower cost of equity.The bank said its downgrade of the stock to 'sector perform' last month was premature and based on overly conservative estimates."Our downgrade was not based on anything wrong with OSB (to the contrary, we indicated that OSB 'continues to grow and to perform,' but we noted 'recent share price performance'). Now, based upon our increased forecasts and price target, we believe the shares are once again set to outperform."RBC reckons OSB can grow its earnings per share by 16% in 2016 and then a further 12% from 2016 to 2018.The bank said growth could be higher still if the net interest margin and cost or risk show greater stability than it assumes.It said the optionality offered by the balance sheet is significant, with its forecast of a Core Tier 1 ratio rising to over 15% by year-end 2018. As a result, it sees a good chance OSB will look to make selective acquisitions and/or increase returns to shareholders."It is our opinion that our higher forecasts present an achievable picture of the company's growth trajectory because we continue to assume a moderation in the net interest margin, an increase in the impairment ratio and slowing loan book growth."At 0943 GMT, the shares were up 5.7% to 332.90p.

[uhound] 30/12/2016 10:44

Gone short - I take an opposite view that in the short/medium term (6 months)this will go lower.

Interesting to see how this plays out.

[mazarin] 30/12/2016 10:10

I certainly agree you bought at a discount, well done. Whereas my buy just 24hrs earlier turned out to be not so well timed, but like I said, I take a medium term view. I suspect yesterday's fall was a result of the release of newspaper comment on perceived 'cooling' of London property prices for 2017.