Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[rmillaree] 21/5/2021 10:08

My calcs (seing as they made us do them rather than simply tessling us) suggets they have made £1.1 mil in "operating profit less finance costs" this year - thats a pretty good result all in. I might have hoped for slight better though as there has been a mini boom in the north east lately ref construction - but as they have outlined they have had covid issues.
I am pleased by mnetion of return to oripr years profits - i don't expect they will ever "presume" the next year will be better than previous good years as that not how they work but a return to say £2.4 million net profit - my metric here is operating profit les finance costs less tax - ie ignore the exceptionals and amortisation adjusts.
On this news return to 75p must be posisble - i will nag around in the hope they can one year chuck out £3.00 milli net and command a p/e of 10 - £1.61 and i will be a happy seller :)

[its the oxman] 21/5/2021 08:10

Reassuring given trading in the main seems have held up well, with usual words of covid caution but expectation things will improve now. Share price remains in bargain territory.

[this_is_me] 21/5/2021 07:14

The increase in cash is encouraging and the prospects, post covid, once the interiors businesses get back to normal, look very good.

The diversification, having subsidiaries with different specialisations within the company, has been very important.

[its the oxman] 18/5/2021 11:32

Still seems very forgotten sub 60p

[purplepelmets] 28/4/2021 12:15

I'm normally wrong, but my thought at the time was it is possible JB was involved in purchase of commercial property in Newcastle on a fairly large scale that needed extensive and ongoing building work and repairs. Buying NTBR could have saved a fortune rather than using contractors, then if he wanted could sell it on after with a vastly inflated revenue stream. I'm not believing it was just a random play. Do wish I sold at 72p when it was an option,

[aimwinner] 28/4/2021 11:33

Purple

Given the cost of the stake you must assume there is a plan, it’s just that its either not obvious to us yet or it has been delayed by Covid. It can’t be that easy to implement material change in Newcastle from a screen in Canada!

See my post 101 above maybe he has started working through the management and cost base already.

[purplepelmets] 28/4/2021 10:48

Stunned that JB took a large stake here, paying a premium, with no plan whatsoever. Beggars belief doesnt it. There MUST be some method to the madness, some reason for doing it?

[zangdook] 28/4/2021 08:28

You can always sign up for their email news, if you feel unloved.

[graham1ty] 28/4/2021 07:38

Aimwinner, they are cheap but will remain so unless the Board engage with shareholders, get a broker to do forecasts, and highlight the value of the business.

Oh, and perhaps be more transparent about the staggering pay of the Directors, particularly across the subsidiaries.

[aimwinner] 27/4/2021 14:47

Graham1TY
Thanks for your investigations I had not seen that Jennings got a payoff. It looks like it was 1 year’s money so maybe he was pushed and did not retire as I thought. It might explain why the announcement came out on the day before the trading statement in March 2020. If so, that may answer your question as to what changes Jeff wants to make.

These things still look cheap to me compared to the rest of the sector, guess we will have to wait for some news or the figures to get a rerating.

[graham1ty] 24/4/2021 08:18

Last but not least Jeff and Cedarvale paid 72p per share. About 30% above these levels.

I wonder what changes he has tried to make ?

[graham1ty] 24/4/2021 08:15

I’ve just spotted in the accounts, a payment to a departing Director of £189,000 in the NTBR accounts. So, presumably Graham Jennings.

Looked after well

[graham1ty] 24/4/2021 08:11

With Group operating profit of £2.08m, those Directors fees look eye watering.

There are about ten operating subsidiaries, and I picked the worst. But those five add up to £1.35m. The remaining few bring the total up to about £1.5m. ( those five have revenue of £38m out of £54.4m total)

Compared to operating profit of £2.08m.

And that is alright ?

[rmillaree] 23/4/2021 19:47

It is what it is with NTBR , a similar structure has always existed since i have held - if H Peel has 3 directors on 70k each and they get the job done it is what it is. Highest paid director in spring roofing is 111k thats high but not ridiculous for 10 mill turnover company.
I would guess these individuals are all hands to the pump proper working directors ensuring the job gets done.

the danger is if you merged everything into one corporate entity and did away with some the skilled bods who knows what skills would be lost.

Overall i would say 5% margin in their kind of industry to the bottom line isnt terrible and thats all that matters the bottom line really.

[graham1ty] 23/4/2021 16:12

Two years ago, on Stocko, I posted a piece “Nice if you can get it”.

I thought I would just look through the subsidiary accounts again. Obviously these are all audited, but do NOT identify individuals. In addition, some Directors may take their remuneration through subsidiaries, and some from the plc public company. However, within the subsidiary accounts, some of the figures remain eye watering.

These are all for the year ended March 2020.

Isoler Limited. Revenue £5.1m, pretax £0.7m directors fees £284,000 !!!!
Springs Roofing Revenue £9.8m, pretax £0.4m Directors Fees £293,000
Wensley Roofing Revenue £10.6m, pretax £0.68m, Directors Fees £265,000
Jennings Roofing Revenue £8.2m, pretax £0.7m Directors Fees £227,000
H Peel, Revenue £2.7m, pretax zero, Directors Fees £282,000

It pays to be a subsidiary Director at NTBR !!!!!

[graham1ty] 23/4/2021 15:25

One thing they could do is engage with shareholders. No meetings, no presentations, no brokers forecasts.

Last trading RNS was November last year. In 2020, they put out a trading statement at the end of March. Not this year. Prelims are due in July. So, if they do not put out a trading statement, it will be eight months between saying anything. That just shows contempt for shareholders.

If Jennings had met some shareholders, and told them the story, and persuaded them NTBR actually considered shareholders, then the share price might be 80p, and he might have sold his shares for 60p. So he only has himself to blame.

NTBR act like a private company. Simple

[its the oxman] 09/4/2021 16:27

Going better, got to pop through 60p this coming week

[its the oxman] 08/4/2021 15:03

Agree, it's seems crazy hss is 100% and ntbr has hardly moved but hopefully it will. Making me think I ought to buy more but any small cap has risk so keeping it a good size (for me) but sensible.

[its the oxman] 08/4/2021 15:00

Longer we are left behind , more likely it is that it gets tipped as well, has been before. Serious money to be made looking 12 months out from sub 60p unless covid variants run totally rampant and lockdown continues.

[aimwinner] 08/4/2021 14:51

Oxman
I agree it looks as if your purchase has sent them better. If you look at how some of the other building related stocks have performed, then this should be due a move up. Have a look at the graph for HSS for example. Given that Jennings has sold all his shares I am not sure where stock would come from.

[its the oxman] 08/4/2021 14:49

Think something nearer 70p very possible if trading just ok. Everybody else seems to be see a slight pickup. So that's my hope. Northern Bear is not a badly run co. Just off the radar for now at least.

[its the oxman] 08/4/2021 13:27

At 54p offered its as if the market recovery has passed this by.

[its the oxman] 08/4/2021 13:21

Added a few today, ready for a move up , hopefully next update will confirm trading is gradually improving. Looks very left behind now market in general and especially re other building/property related plays.

[this_is_me] 04/3/2021 16:58

If you yse a cheap broker you get cheap service. I am happy to pay £11-50 a trade. That is only a fraction of 1% and makes no difference to an investor like me. For a day trader it might make a difference.

[zangdook] 04/3/2021 15:57

Thanks, tiswas. I had orders down as low as 1000 with IG and with iWeb yesterday and this morning but neither of them could find anything. I'll have to look at idealing.