Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 22/12/2021 14:09

marksp2011
22 Dec '21 - 10:23 - 3840 of 3842

I come on to the ADVFN BB's to discuss companies , their markets and their prospects. That is my interpretation of what these boards are for.

What anyone else says they do / or not do with their money is not relevant to that.

[nickrl] 22/12/2021 13:40

Given HMSO and its JV partner Canada Pension Plan Investment Board have just let Silverburn shopping centre (Glasgow) go for £160m below the £300m they paid for it in 2009 this seems a reasonable outcome. Presumably as long as no tenants walk away from their obligations up to a certain point in time (why didn't NRR say when that is) they will get most of the £5.5m back.

[chucko1] 22/12/2021 11:56

I do find a number of the posts above remarkable, and rather encouraging for us risk-takers!

No one has commented upon the probability that the ESCROW being paid, and to what extent. Understand why the funds have been placed there and the other contextual statement made by NRR in that regard. If you cannot take it at face value, that is fine, although likely an error of judgement.

Whatever view you take, they are selling very much above the value implied by the share price. Don't you understand that that is what this is all about?? Whether it is at NAV flat or plus/minus a bit hardly matters by comparison. For this small - but not insignificant - part of the portfolio, NAV flat represents a 53% implied uplift.

If you don't want it, I will take it. On so many occasions, I have read similar garbage expressed about other REITs - look what happened to just about all of them. They did what they said on the tin.

[marksp2011] 22/12/2021 10:23

Thanks Fenners

"Are you someone with no shareholding who chooses to take on the mission of telling everyone that they are wrong and have made a mistake investing?"

Would you mind answering that? I would like to understand the context of your posts

Thanks

[flyfisher] 22/12/2021 10:23

Yes fenners, they seem to use headline sales price to calculate a gain on book.
As the net sales price cannot yet be assured, the truth is that they don't know whether it is at a premium or loss to book.

Book value £37m
Headline sale price £38.8
Net sale price excluding escrow amount £33.3m

So it has been sold for anything between a 10% loss and 4.9% premium, to book.

'' highlights the significant value we can create through our Regeneration expertise.''

Expertise, really !

[fenners66] 22/12/2021 10:14

marksp2011 - I missed the 4.9% line
However the next detail is just the facts - if you take that as spin so be it - its not.

[riverman77] 22/12/2021 10:11

I was hoping they were being conservative with the valuations for the regeneration assets and we would get some decent uplifts. Indeed, the latest results presentation suggested potentially 50% upside, so struggling to get too excited about today's news. I guess NRR is on 35% discount so probably shouldn't complain too much.

[marksp2011] 22/12/2021 10:09

fenners

You do seem desperate for this not to be a positive thing.

Are you someone with no shareholding who chooses to take on the mission of telling everyone that they are wrong and have made a mistake investing?

I must admit I do that on occasion. I posted my views on the SMDS thread. Quite a long post giving my analysis v the sector and against VWRL. I fielded questions on what I had posted but I havent been on the thread since. Nothing wrong with being negative on a stock.

My Holding is at 61p, I have had 7.1 in divis and, another 4p+ coming in january. For me, this has been an excellent investment and every penny is another £500 in the coffers.

[mindthestash] 22/12/2021 09:59

It's a step in the right direction. Work the planning and sell out the development risk to others. Agree with f66, It's probably a marginal profit bearing in mind the time capital has been deployed here. Modest increase on book value is welcome but that would include stratospheric residential value improvement in Oxford. Credit due to board for change in strategy.

[fenners66] 22/12/2021 09:55

Sorry missed that line 4.9%.

That translates into £1.81m of the Gross Sales Price.

But then we learn that "Of the gross proceeds, GBP5.5 million is to be held in escrow as a rental and service charge guarantee and to cover the purchaser's costs of agreeing a new headlease"

So depending on how much of that (it would only take 33%) they have to pay out it would result in a loss to last valuation

Use all of it and it would have been a 10% loss.

[riverman77] 22/12/2021 09:38

It says in the RNS that it was a 4.9% premium to the latest valuation. Not bad I suppose, but compare with Harworth who recently sold one of their development projects for more than 100% premium - I would rather pay up for that sort of quality even though the NRR discount does look enticing.

[fenners66] 22/12/2021 09:25

marksp2011
22 Dec '21 - 07:17 - 3830 of 3831

"Sold at a premium to valuation and at a profit"

Are you sure?
How do you know that?
It's not explicitly said in the RNS.

It tells us only what the original purchase price was, not what was spent since and not what its last valuation was.

[lord gnome] 22/12/2021 07:26

The situation here is improving rapidly and should be reflected in the share price in due course. I have no idea whether this deal is good or not, but the headline numbers look positive and our LTV is improving markedly. Clearly, we are no longer distressed sellers.

[marksp2011] 22/12/2021 07:17

Sold at a premium to valuation and at a profit

[cwa1] 14/12/2021 07:44

Will Hobman, Chief Financial Officer commented: "We have worked hard since the start of the financial year to transform our balance sheet. Our actions mean that LTV is now back within management guidance, finance costs have been reduced, debt maturity has been extended and critically our balance sheet remains fully unsecured with substantial available liquidity. We are pleased that these achievements, combined with our strong operational performance and portfolio positioning, have resulted in the affirmation of our investment grade credit rating."

[sphere25] 08/12/2021 15:58

Taken a few for the dividend

"In-line with this policy, the Board has declared a dividend of 4.1 pence per share in respect of the six months ended 30 September 2021, based on 80% of UFFO per share of 5.1 pence. The dividend will be paid on 14 January 2022. The ex-dividend date will be 9 December 2021"

I don't really come in for the dividends, but hell may as well do it once a year!

Poor humour aside, I just wonder if the ex div amount might get bought back up too. Mark down tomorrow and then bob around abit here and there.

Less drama than elsewhere but have to take a sit down now and again

All imo
DYOR

[gbjbaanb] 08/12/2021 00:15

5% divi for the interim, more than I expected, now to guess what the final divi will be!

[lord gnome] 07/12/2021 17:24

Nice move up towards ex-div.

[chucko1] 07/12/2021 17:13

Better than nowt. Marginally!

[cwa1] 07/12/2021 14:28

CFO tucks away a few shares:-

[fidra] 01/12/2021 13:29

Ex div next Thursday.9th December.

[cwa1] 25/11/2021 16:48

Solid volume today on the rise as well

[riverman77] 25/11/2021 11:28

I agree NRR still looks decent value but have quite a bit of property and see better risk adjusted value in things like EPIC, BREI and HWG.

[fidra] 25/11/2021 11:20

Looks like a possibility of say 9p in a year of dividends.would be a good yield.

Also the asset value at 131p per share is a large premium 43p over where the share price is even now.

So over 12 months 9p income possible and maybe another 20p on the share price.

All things being equal.ie they don’t get any worse.

That’s a possible return of 29p or about 34% over the year.

Looks pretty decent on that scenario.