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NRR Newriver Reit Plc

1.00 (1.40%)
14 Jun 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Newriver Reit Plc LSE:NRR London Ordinary Share GB00BD7XPJ64 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  1.00 1.40% 72.40 71.70 72.40 72.20 71.20 71.60 188,357 16:35:20
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Real Estate Investment Trust 73.6M -16.8M -0.0537 -13.45 225.7M
Newriver Reit Plc is listed in the Real Estate Investment Trust sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker NRR. The last closing price for Newriver Reit was 71.40p. Over the last year, Newriver Reit shares have traded in a share price range of 67.70p to 92.00p.

Newriver Reit currently has 312,603,487 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Newriver Reit is £225.70 million. Newriver Reit has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -13.45.

Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3876 to 3900 of 4350 messages
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"most significantly, the Company has agreed terms to dispose of its Hawthorn pub business, which delivers on a key strategic priority announced in April 2021"

"Key strategic priority" - Losing another £30 odd million then.....

Was it a key strategic priority to lose £80+ million on pubs ?
Or just a right royal screw up , which of course no one will ever admit , or pay the price for?

BODs always seeking to portray huge mistakes as some kind of wonderful strategic decision. Never taking responsibility.

What's the quote about jumping in when others are fearful? I jumped in when everyone was panicking, at 56p admittedly, and I thought the dividend might be good for the future post-recovery, but as you say you have to think to the future and I wonder now what the income stream from those will be more the pubs have gone. It might be worth starting to consider selling. Thoughts?
Strongly agree chucko1. I ticked your post but as often happens these days, it didn’t record. The easy gains have been had now but it’s been great fun for the few of us who spotted the great sector buy opportunity.

e.g AEWU dividend (they even managed not to cut it) is 13% at my buy price. I would be happy with that and no capital gain but the share price has recovered strongly too.

Short and sharp: I only look at the future and the prospects for the business relative to the value of its underlying claims on cash flows.

Every REIT, including NRR, has had a period of suffering from investors and loudmouths who had no stomach for the fight. The valuers, frankly, wet their pants over the difficulty in making the sorts of assessments they are trained to do.

This is why we have seen huge rallies in every single REIT bar none the past year. Yes, some more than others, although 46p for NRR was a gift that I think has a fair amount more giving to do, never mind Barclays's indifference and stated inability to factor in the future Hawthorne sale.

Many of these REITs have also had the "oh - look at them - they only talk about the positive things". It was ever thus and I pity those who talked themselves out of the obvious and enriching investments that, to my eyes, were in rarified risk/reward territory. Or the "I am going to wait it out" brigade. Have they made 100% on NRR, or 75% on EPIC, or 70% on AEWU, or 40% on RGL? Before dividends. On asset-backed, LOWLY LEVERAGED (I repeat) assets. Some of these were priced as though it was 2007 again. It's not.

You should have seen the comments on the management statements from AEWU and RGL. And, to a lesser extent, RLE (although I kind of see the problems there, but still a 50% rally).

All that said, the easy tens of percent are in the past and it's now a game of more intense risk management.

fenners if you were owner pre April, and i wasn't because for i won't have pubcos in the portfolio, you've lost 50% but question now is what will be the income stream and scope for dividend to be increased or not.

In 2020 pubs generated 30% of income with retail the rest. However retail income whilst trashed in FY21 will maybe generate 40-45m after property costs. Admin costs will be reduced to c20m (can't see it separated out so pro rata pub staff costs out) and with reduced interest costs (say 6-7m less of 200m debt reduction) to 18m doesn't leave any potential for divi to be increased. However, this a crude analysis so need to work out what the UFFO is going to be and hopefully the circular will have some more detail in it before i can decide.

Perhaps others have a better handle on this as accounts not as straightforward as some REITs.

On reflection the vital information missing from the announcement is how much NET CASH are NRR getting after deduction of all debt owed by Hawthorn Leisure REIT plus transaction costs.The accounts of Hawthorn Leisure REIT that I have seen are complex and date to March 2020;but I suspect a figure of circa £40 to £50 million area might be around the mark.How much net cash has been put in the pub business?
Admiral are buying Hawthorn Leisure REIT & all its operating companies so surely this includes the C Stores & potential future sites.I can't see any statement that assets have been removed prior to sale.
As far as im aware, they have been disposing C-Stores separately and are included in the figure below:

"We have already exchanged or are under offer on a further £79 million of disposals so far in FY22."

If you read back through my posts over years here I have challenged the logic of buying a pub estate as it was a business in serious decline.

Others continued to argue that , 1 they were well run, 2 they all could be converted and thus it was a property master stroke.....

Well its lost a fortune.

chucko on their own figures they started writing off the value in 2019.
More to follow and they have been telling us for the last 2 years how everything was fine since all the properties had alternate use anyway.

Meanwhile some were asking just how did they expect to deliver that ?

Read the accounts - far more emphasis placed their on a development pipeline (and pipe dream) of these assets compared to no reference here on the Loss on disposal.

I read the headline and the one figure I was interested in was How much will they lose?

To answer we have to scroll down to the bottom of the article and work it out for ourselves - we know full well it would have been the first line if it was a profit on disposal.

I think the LTV is stated at 39.9% (or thereabouts) somewhere in the published document. So under 40%, but only just!
Not sure what costs they have here but if they nett 200m my estimate is LTV dropped to c37-38%. Mind you it depends on what terms the debt is on as to whether that will cost them to pay it off early. Hopefully the shareholder circular on 28th will give us more detail.
The bigger mistake was not forecasting the pandemic. The fact that you have not mentioned that is an absurdity as any analysis has to consider that, and managing the risk in the new scenarios they are facing.
Classic manoeuvre spend 3 years writing off the value and then dispose at far less, and above all don't draw attention to how much it all cost.
What a BS presentation of years of Failure.

They are going to great lengths not to draw attention to how much money they have lost on the pub estate .

After telling everyone for years that it was a master stroke buying pubs now they have to disclose the details (see the very bottom of the RNS) even those are slightly opaque and seek to play down both the loss and the contribution the estate was making(Not).

Check the detail at the bottom - I knew they would have to add it somewhere so I carried on reading - despite them only mentioning "strategic review" and "Gross proceeds"


Disposal Group Net Assets £249.3m

Net Proceeds exp £216.1m

Therefore what they do not say outright - LOSS on disposal £33.2m

But that is after

Net de-valuation movement 2019,20,21 of £51.6m (Loss)

So as Property investors they have managed around £85m of losses on something sold for £216m !!

But its because they did not see sufficient scale (674 pubs sold to someone with 1000) and it was only to meet the "strategic review"

BS the board should just come clean and admit the whole experiment was just a very expensive mistake!

Quite, they should have at X discount to last published NAV etc etc.

We shouldnt have to scramble around accounts to try and work it out.

What a terribly worded announcement on a deal that is transformational. So little detail.
Im getting slightly different numbers as i do not think this sale includes the C-Stores.. although clear as mud.

Announcement says "The Disposal of Hawthorn, which as at 30 June 2021 comprised 674 leased & tenanted and operator managed community pubs"

Number of pubs sold ties to accounts, page 12 (without C stores).

Accounts have pubs AND c stores at £248m. Handily value of c stores not split, but seems to be from the development blurb 24 of them sat in that £248m figure.

A couple went in year, one for £2.8m including flats and another for £1.2m.

Doesnt seem totally mad to value each one at £500k conservative which would mean what's being disposed is actually £248m - (24*£500k) = £236m.

If each C store was worth £1m then its down £248m - £24m = £224m, which strangely just about ties to disposals proceeds.

Would also suggest Admiral Taverns are more likely to be bidding for just the pubs rather than pubs plus what is effectively retail.

They sold the pubs at around an 11% discount to NAV, according to their statement which broke out the pub portfolio.

The whole estate was trading at what appears to be a 40% or so discount, so the effect of this sale is to increase the discount by around 8% to near 50% for the remaining portfolios.

Given the more stable trading performance of the retail portfolio and the reduction in uncertainty presented by potential future social distancing in pubs, this discount seems excessive to me.

By my rough calculations this will reduce NAV by 7-8p, perhaps a price worth paying to get the LTV down.
NAV of Hawthorne last disclosed at £248m including C Stores. Cant see anywhere if the sale includes C Stores.
Hawthorn Leisure gone for just over £220m.

EPIC are predominantly retail warehouses and they performed very well during the pandemic. A large seller has just been cleared. Trading at around a 17% discount to NAV and yielding around 7% paid monthly. Dividend should increase by around 10% shortly after the year end in September. Hope that helps gbjbaanb

Shopping centres make up 57%, retail parks 16% and pubs 25%.

I wonder if there are better reits for retail parks.

If pubs are sold at book value there will be no impact on NAV - pubs go out, cash comes in = NAV neutral. If cash is used to pay down debt then this will reduce LTV, but again no NAV impact. For NAV to fall 35-40p they would have to more or less give the pubs away!
Retail Parks are small part of portfolio especially since they offloaded a load into the BRAVO JV so shopping centres will still dominate and it depends on whether we've reached the bottom on these or not.

Anyhow pub sale is imminent and that could realise 250m so a step change down in LTV will give it some headroom but NAV will drop 35-40p so current share price reflecting that i guess.

Nearly got to my 80p interest level but has bounced back so probably missed that opportunity as momentum is carrying the sector higher currently.

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