Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[janekane] 16/6/2021 09:06

3641
What news notice are you quoting from I can’t find the information posted 23/4/21
Thanks in advance for any reply

[alanpro1] 15/6/2021 07:20

Aewu: Further to the Company's announcement of 23 April 2021 regarding the successful outcome of its legal action against two well-funded national tenants to recover unpaid rent, the Company can report that neither tenant sought the court's permission to appeal the decision of the Master and have now paid all the rent arrears claimed in the proceedings, as well as reaching an agreement on the legal costs incurred

[nickrl] 11/6/2021 11:45

They are looking for partners for redevelopment but then so are a lot of other shopping centre owners and this needs big capital to turn them into RESI. Burgess Hill is a £65m project and despite it having planning approval its not yet progressed.

[riverman77] 11/6/2021 11:43

For balance, worth pointing out that if they can sell the pubs and development assets at premium, and if they see a rise in retail parks values and a stabilisation in the shopping centres values then this could actually see a decent uplift in NAV due to the impact of gearing, perhaps to 180p? Very hard to say which way it will go at this stage so erring on the side of caution, and assuming a further fall in valuations.

[riverman77] 11/6/2021 09:01

Not off the top of my head but there is a slide in the presentation that covers this. From memory they have earmarked around 20% of the portfolio for regeneration and they think these assets have alternative use value about 50% higher than the current book value. I guess the alternative use value for the rest of the portfolio is largely irrelevant as they seem to have no plans to develop these.

[dhoult12] 10/6/2021 23:25

Retail parks are increasing in value off the cv19 base. Although still agree with your 10% decline ballpark as I'm not sure who is buying shopping centers at the moment.

Anyone remember the values underpinned by alternative use days in this? ~200p NAV wasn't it?

[riverman77] 10/6/2021 21:45

Yes I am prudently assuming the pubs are sold at 10% discount to NAV, and the rest of the portfolio also falls by 10% on average (retail parks should do better than this, but the shopping centres worse, but overall 10% seems about right). I assume that the sale of Hawthorn will be mainly used to reduce LTV (to around 35%), but unless they can sell at big premium this won't have much impact on NAV either way.

[nickrl] 10/6/2021 21:22

riverman have you factored in sale of Hawthorn in your estimate?

[riverman77] 10/6/2021 16:23

Slowly getting to the level where it could offer value. I'm prudently assuming another 10% fall in property values which would take NAV to around 120p once impact of gearing is considered. I think the market would then want at least a 20% discount, so see 96p as fair value. Take off perhaps another 10% to provide some upside potential and I'm looking at around 87p to take a position. Let's see if it gets there.

[nickrl] 09/6/2021 13:50

CWA without Hawthorn makes them a pure retail play maybe a factor here but no big seller about and moving down on low volume.

Getting close to my interested level though.

[cwa1] 09/6/2021 11:48

Still drifting off rather unhappily

[rogerrail] 03/6/2021 14:30

Valuation of Hawthorn is £248m including C Stores, hopefully they wont have to dispose at a significant discount to that given the high occupancy and the quality of revenues from C stores. Net property income in 2020 was £24.5m ie nearly 10% yeild so assuming they can recover to those levels post covid , reduced finance cost at 3.2% interest will only offset a proportion of that.

[nickrl] 03/6/2021 14:12

CWA i agree quite a fall given the potential for yield to rise here is pretty well baked in now they've recalibrated the dividend to something that can be covered. What is harder to determine, well for me, is we need to factor out Hawthorn now to understand what revised UFFO will be. They are clear they will reduce debt from Hawthorn sale means at least another £200m in the coffers should mean the RCF can be dropped. However, will they try and buy out the bond given its slightly higher interest rate. So interest charges will drop and administration costs should fall as well along with rents at least stabilising at current ERV should see UFFO easily doubling. However, NAV will fall with sale of Hawthorn by c20-25p but would have thought market would have priced that in already.

They say they aren't going to run the developments on their own but with Hawthorn cash will they reconsider.

[cwa1] 03/6/2021 13:29

LOL, fair enough. Just a figure of speech, of course. However 6% off is a decent discount IMO and is the largest drop I have on any of my many watchlists today FWIW!

[marksp2011] 03/6/2021 13:11

CWA
Not sure I would describe this as a "collapse"............ a great day trading stock

[rogerrail] 03/6/2021 13:10

Agree, must be some scope for a significant recovery in NAV and revenues. Impact from covid on combined revenues from retail and pubs was about £40m and I would expect they should be able to regain a large proportion of that though the proposed Hawthorn disposal will have a large bearing in the short -med term.

[cwa1] 03/6/2021 11:31

Didn't SEEM like a 5% off type announcement to me. Had my eye on it for some time now and wondered if now might be a "fair value" point to take some? Despite the fact there seems a persistent seller about I've dipped my toe in for a few at just over 99p. Will keep the powder dry on the possibility of a few more if it collapses further.

Good fortune all

[diggybee] 03/6/2021 07:29

I agree. Pub sale shd give it another kicker as you say.

[lord gnome] 03/6/2021 07:21

NAV at 151p with valuations still depressed, yield set to increase with a resumption of dividends, LTV set to reduce markedly when the pubs are sold. First stop 150p I would hope. Six months to get there, should be looking a lot stronger by next interims.

[lord gnome] 03/6/2021 07:16

Indeed not too bad. This is now a good recovery play.

[marksp2011] 03/6/2021 07:13

Not too bad

[grahamburn] 23/5/2021 15:03

Brief mention (very little specific detail and somewhat old where the detail is mentioned) in Sunday Times talking about shares which have yet to recover:

NewRiver Reit
Real estate investment trusts (Reits) — companies that own property assets — have also had a difficult pandemic. These Reits are largely geared towards shopping centres, so rents have been down.

Hammerson, which owns Birmingham’s Bullring, said that rental income in 2020 fell 41 per cent and that it had collected less than half of its rents this year. For Regional & Capital, the company that owns the Kingfisher shopping centre in Redditch, those figures were 30 per cent and 53 per cent.

NewRiver owns retail parks as well as shopping centres and has held up better. Many tenants have kept trading through the pandemic. It collected 70 per cent of its rents in the three months to December, it said.

Hewson said: “In a sure sign of confidence in its strategy the business is expanding, acquiring a 10 per cent stake in The Moor retail complex in Sheffield.”

[nickrl] 23/5/2021 14:15

Sky News saying Admiral Taversn also interested in Hawthorn so looks increasingly likely they will achieve north of £200m for Hawthorn. Would an IPO realise more and would they hold back a stake?