Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[nickrl] 21/5/2021 12:45

Retail figures are a reflection of pent up demand it will need 6 mths before a better level of long term demand is clear. Also govt support schemes are falling away over next few months so how will the economy fair then is what will drive valuation. Its not going to drop much further come annual results in a week or so but whether its the bottom isn't clear yet but the bulk of the drop is in the NAV now.

[dhoult12] 21/5/2021 12:04

Ultimately if you were to try and liquidate the portfolio in todays market we all know you wouldnt be left after paying debts with anything like their stated NAV of 169p IIRC from September, due to lack of demand for retail. But they are not attempting to do that right now.
Bet in so much that it exists is that when we open up for good (retail figures this week look v.good btw) the demand will return to a certain degree for these assets to more normal levels. At some point the land itself becomes more valuable as alternative use.. however been stung with their alternative use on this before to the point as to ignore it!

[chucko1] 21/5/2021 11:24

This is all true, but the share price is worried about something rather worse than £200mn. Anyway, the forthcoming results and statement regarding income collection will give an idea where this is at and how the community stores have reopened/traded, but my target of 130p or so still has not changed!

This has not paid a dividend for a year, so a statement on that will also de-risk it to some degree.

[bondholder] 21/5/2021 09:52

Problem here is that the assets are definitely worth less than the book figures in aggregate. Pubs on books at 260m most commentators suggest around 200mRetail parks are valued on a yield around 7 percent Vis Hammerson recent sale at 8.5Shopping centres - the recent Allsop auction saw one sold at a yield near 30 percent Vis 18 in the December accounts. Admittedly a v small centre and hopefully an outlier.

[diggybee] 18/5/2021 08:25

Results out soon. Should maybe even get a divvy? If they rationalism the pubs I would have thought that the share price is still considerably lower than it should be....in an inflationary, opening up, more people velocity kind of world?

[nickrl] 16/5/2021 15:51

Rooney looking to build a pub empire quickly and would save listing fees if they can do a deal could happen very quickly. Also wouldn't get tangled up with CMA which the bigger groups would although i doubt they would want the entire estate.

[diggybee] 16/5/2021 15:05

That seems nice. The rest seems to be worth more than 100m quid?

[shauney2] 16/5/2021 08:41

200m for Hawthorn?hTtps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/former-greene-king-chief-rooney-anand-eyes-pubs-deal-62dxwp58j

[grahamburn] 30/4/2021 15:32

Light hearted article, but a positive for retail parks



Behind a paywall but basically says that many shoppers who don't wish to rely on online, but would rather see and feel products will gravitate to easy-to-reach under on'e own steam, easy-to-park, quieter places to shop.

New River even get a mention:

"....and the commercial landlords NewRiver Retail and British Land have both signalled a strategic shift towards retail parks."

[marksp2011] 24/4/2021 07:49

@VOW

I agree - the shopping monoliths are going to struggle as are those anchored on old fashioned department stores. Local shopping will be OK but I can't imagine trailing around Westfield again - paying a fortune to park, £12 burgers etc. We will see.

Not sure it has much relevance for NRR as the rents there are reasonable but the mega-malls are going to take a hit and the malls in bad positions will really suffer. Treaty Centre in Hounslow is little more than a food court as it has lost Debenhams and is now a place with Albanians selling covers for mobiles from hand carts, phone/tat jewellery stores and..........thats about it. Local population demograhics are for ethnic stores and markets.......the place serves no real point except it has a car park

[riverman77] 23/4/2021 09:22

What are the best guesses for what Hawthorn may fetch at IPO? I would have thought a decent premium over book value could be expected given the valuation of other pub companies. If it's to be priced on earnings basis, then 11x ebitda seems to be the going rate for hospitality business - I would expect Hawthorn to deliver well over 20m ebitda per year when things back to normal. I note they mention a potential IPO so perhaps they'd be open to a private equity bid for the Hawthorn business - a lot of dry powder and appetite for pub businesses at the moment.

[speedsgh] 19/4/2021 11:39

Hawthorn Leisure, which may float on the London Stock Exchange, is looking to significantly expand its estate. CEO Mark Davies says ‘we are 700 or so pubs today, we would like to get to 1,000 pubs at some point soon and we can probably get there quite quickly. Longer term, we could at least double the size of the platform from there or possibly go even further.’ He adds ‘we will be patient, opportunistic where we can be but we are ambitious and dynamic and the management team can do deals. That's how we built Hawthorn to what it is today so all of that is recognised.’

[vow] 16/4/2021 13:31

Hammerson: Shopping centre giant slashes rents in revival bid

I would say this is the minimum. Lots of rent free periods and reverse premiums etc coming.

[lord gnome] 14/4/2021 11:01

It is based on EPRA earnings, so property revaluation gains can't be paid out as income. Payment (roughly) is based on rent actually received, minus overheads and interest payments.

[dhoult12] 14/4/2021 09:09

One thing about the 90% rule ive never fully got, is while its net property income.. which obviously includes cost, does that include asset revaluations down as a cost?
Understand rightly it doesn't include "up" revaluations in the requirements as otherwise you would always need to sell in a rising valuation environment. However
if it does include down as an acceptable cost, theres obviously no requirement to pay out.

[lord gnome] 14/4/2021 08:39

They are indeed Roger. Subject to various calculations and deductions. It is still a dark art. I hope for something, but how much?

[rogerrail] 14/4/2021 08:30

I meant 90%

[rogerrail] 14/4/2021 08:30

I thought REITs are obliged to pay 90 of property income ?

[bg23] 14/4/2021 08:22

good update. Hopefully an IPO or sale of Hawthorn will further highlight value in the remaining portfolio.
We know dividends are an ambition but would have been good to hear the latest thoughts - presumably analysts will be asking questions later.

wish i had a bit of spare cash to add!

[lord gnome] 14/4/2021 07:20

A lot to like in that update. The strategy for the future looks solid. I will not be sorry to see the pub business go. The IPO will be expensive and time-consuming but will hopefully realise true value resulting in a large capital receipt which can be better deployed elsewhere. Hopefully the market will like it as well. Just a pity that no mention was made about dividends.

[hawfinch] 08/4/2021 13:53

So true.... this is probably one of the worst out there in terms of momentum trading. Spreads can be astronomical

[gbjbaanb] 08/4/2021 12:23

Tbh there are better stocks for volatility - SAE and IES for example as two renewable ones that have fallen recently. I bought those one for the dividend, when things get back to normal and the pubs and shops return (as they will, human nature does not change) then the div will return to. And even if it's half the levels of previous years, it'll still be 20% :-)

[marksp2011] 07/4/2021 11:16

This has now taken over from AHT as my best stock ever

My spreadsheets going back 16 years show that I have made more $ on this than anything else. Volatility is your friend especially regular patterns on a relatively low priced share

being able to trade 50k up and down for 6-10p at a go is great and long may it continue

[nickrl] 07/4/2021 10:31

the court case is to force the govt to treat them the same as non essential retail so open asap afetr 12th April. Case isn't til 19th April though